Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 17, 2018

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming out! Lemme throw my DraftKings (not sponsored) league for tonight out there in case anyone wants to join –

 

Paul Sporer

@sporer

 

Running a 35-person $5 DraftKings game for tomorrow if you’re interested! draftkings.com/draft/contest/…

17 Aug 2018

Daniel Castro: Can’t wait to be back in September to mash some fat taters!

Paul Sporer: Fat taters incoming!

Gerald: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear.

Paul Sporer: I do

Dusty: What’s the latest on Wander Javier? Do you like his upside?

Paul Sporer: Top 1 player in the league upside

Charlotte: Muncy has been killing me lately. I have to cut one tonight in a 12-team points league. 5 OF, CI/MI. Muncy, Bauers or Tyler O’Neill.

Paul Sporer: Frick on stick! Still think I’m holding Muncy over Bauers

Josh: Paul, I’m a relative newcomer to MLB The Shows Diamond Dynasty, whats the best way to get better at hitting?

Paul Sporer: Practice, practice, practice. To really get better, I’d consider playing the computer on Hall of Fame (and eventually build up to Legend). One of the best players in the community got that way by playing computer franchises on Legend. Obviously you gotta build up to that, but playing on Rookie won’t help you

Over Here: Im rebuilding. 12 teams 10 keepers. Matt Chapman for Nick Senzel?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Chap

Zach: Paul, is it time to give up on Moncada in a 12 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: Ya I have no issues with that. He’s been brutal this year

ryan: time to pick up wellington castillo? gattis is my other catcher. 1 catcher league.

Paul Sporer: Not a huge difference, prob just sticking w/Gattis tbh

Paul Spider: Hi Paul

Paul Sporer: Yo

AstrosMan: Likelihood Kyle Tucker is top-40 outfielder next year?

Paul Sporer: 15%

Jake Junis Priest: Hi Paul. AL Only OBP Catcher Q: Zunino and/or Russ Martin or one of the rookies: Danny Jansen, Michael Perez, Taylor Ward? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Gimme Ward, I like a non-catching catcher

Parts and Gleyber: You starting Cahill vs. the Stros tomorrow? (AL only) Springer is supposedly coming back today…

Paul Sporer: Yes in an AL-only

RP2000: What does Zobrist’s playing time look like ROS?

Paul Sporer: He’s not a full-time player, but he’ll still play enough for NL-only and 15-team I think

Josh: Thanks for the advice!  One more Diamond Dynasty question, any good players to buy before the next roster update?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t done a run through this week, but if you join my Discord (!discord in my Twitch channel), we’re always discussing that and there are subscriber channels where we specifically discuss who to buy

Jake Junis Priest: AL OBP: Corner is so thin! You think Tyler White will keep playing/hitting when Springer returns?

Paul Sporer: Springer’s return won’t completely crush his PT, but Altuve’s will

Guest: What do you think Jack Flaherty’s ceiling is? All-world stud or solid MOR starter? The punch outs are super sexy…

Paul Sporer: His ceiling is top of the heap, but obviously the likelihood of someone hitting a ceiling isn’t super high. Big fan, though, and definitely buying the future

Hannah Hochevar: David Fletcher vs. Yandy Dandy Diaz? (OBP league)

Paul Sporer: Fletcher bc I’m just not sure where Diaz gets extended PT

Cool: What do you think of Nimmo ROS?

Paul Sporer: Solid player needs to be a on roster in all formats as long as the finger is fine (X-Rays negative was the latest news I’ve seen)

Trap Gone Hamels: W/ Gleyber struggling, does Neil Walker see more PT? And, with more PT, AL Only fantasy value?

Paul Sporer: Isn’t Walker getting a lot of OF burn right now? I think he’ll continue to get PT if he continues to play well, espec. w/the uncertainty around Judge

Zach: Pick two: Jose Martinez, Ian Desmond, Miguel Sano, Yonder Alonso

Paul Sporer: Not much split here tbh, but I’ll go Sano/Desmond (16 of next 24 at home)

Mike: Are Randy Newman, Roman Quinn, or Phil Ervin worth an add in an NL-only? I’ve lost a few bats these last two weeks. I would have to drop Bour, Kiké, or Austin Jackson.

Paul Sporer: Randy Newman? Like the I love LA guy? I thiiiiink that’s Kevin. I like Quinn a lot, but PT is scant. So I’d lean Newman, Quinn, Ervin in that order. Dropping K.Hernandez. I know Bour’s PT is scant right now, too, but his upside is too good to ditch

Taylor: At this point isn’t  glasnow what we want Robbie ray to be? Would you drop ray for him? If he does well against the Red Sox I think I would

Paul Sporer: Ya I guess he’s been peak Ray in his 3 outings w/the Rays, but keep in mind Ray’s downside. I’m not a huge Ray fan, but I think you gotta stick w/him over Glasnow. Surely there’s someone else you can cut

Jake Junis Priest: Re: Taylor Ward: Thanks for answering! Which would you cut, Zunino or Russ Martin for him? (OBP league)

Paul Sporer: Zunino

Dan: Got Bryant and Doolittle on the DL. Can I trust them to perform for me in the fantasy playoffs?

Paul Sporer: I meeeaaannn, Bryant is due back end of month, but I’m always cautious of timetables. I trust Doo more b/w the two

Mike: What do I do with Bour or Muncy? Recent trades have really sapped their value, but it’s not hard to imagine them getting into a situation with more at-bats. (NL-Only, 10 team)

Paul Sporer: Unfortunately can’t do much in an NL-only. I think Muncy has more PT coming than Bour as it stands right now

Josh : What are your thoughts on Calvin Mitchell?

Paul Sporer: I’m not going to pretend I know anything about him. Looks like a solid prospect in Pitt’s system, but while I have committed to being more up on prospects this year, I still have a gap of knowledge in A-Ball

Paul Sporer: Here are Eric’s preseason thoughts: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-25-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/

Mike: What is going on with Wilson Contreras? Was that power just not real?

Paul Sporer: Part of it is #PGIL (prospect growth isn’t linear) bc while he’s not a prospect in the truest sense of the word (meaning he doesn’t qualify for lists), he’s still in just his 2nd full season. his HR/FB% has also plummeted from 26% to 10%

Jeffe: Why have opinions soured so much on Tucker? He was so highly regarded before his call up

Paul Sporer: Because that’s how the fantasy community treats prospects. They wildly overrate them before they ever do anything and then run to the other guardrail if they don’t become superstars five seconds into the majors. I don’t know if you’re referring to my thoughts on his chances at Top 40 OF for next year or not, but I’m not down on him… just realistic

Trap Gone Hamels: Is Ji-Man Choi replacing CJ Cron? They already have rhythmically similar names…

Paul Sporer: Looks like a dead split right now as opposed to Choi *over* Cron

Dave: Catcher for tonight: Ramos vs. Thor or Gattis vs. E-Jax?

Paul Sporer: I know it’s a worse matchup, but I’ll take the better guy which is Ramos for me

Dave: Glasnow– is this it?

Paul Sporer: Is what it? It’s 12 good innings, y’all need to chill lol

Paul Sporer: It’s encouraging and I’m not wet blanketing just bc I’m not a huge fan, but rather bc it’s a tiny sample. I’m keeping a close eye and will definitely adjust my expectations if these are viable changes that are untapping his potential, but I need to see more to do that. That said, he’s a definite pickup in all formats bc we can’t wait for stable samples in fantasy so he should be on more than 20% of ESPN rosters

Von Hayes: Junis @ CHW or DeSclafani home vs SF or Lance Lynn vs TOR?

Paul Sporer: Lynn

Finding Nimmo: 12-team pts league next year that prioritizes strikeouts. I have the ability to keep Walker Buehler or Carlos Rodon as a 24th round pick. Which should I choose? I know Rodon has looked pretty good as of late, but does Buehler have that true ace upside?

Paul Sporer: Both have incredible upside for sure, but yes, I’m leaning Buehler

Wes : Steve Pearce. Yay/Nay in a 12 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: I can’t imagine he’s playing enough to merit 12-team mixed viability

Kyle: What to do with Bundy’s and Weaver’s type at this point? I’m limited to 3 adds to per week. With 14 teams H2H and 6 bench spots, there is not much starting pitching on the waiver.

Paul Sporer: Bundy goes to TOR and then home v. NYY before a trip to KC. Weaver goes to the Dodgers and then hosts PIT. Knowing the ugly streaming landscape, I think you just gotta treat ’em as on-team streamers (bouncing from reserve to starting) in a league that deep

Salty: Paul – Bieber has the Red Sox next week, but I believe KC and CHW the following week.  Worth stashing and sitting next week in anticipation of the juicy starts to come in a 14 team ML league?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m cool w/that. Too risky to dump him in a 14-teamer and definitely gotta pass on that BOS bc even as he does well, he’s still a bit too hittable for my liking to risk it v. an elite O like Boston’s

Dan: Are the rays gonna continue capping Snell’s pitches at 75 each start? Him being pulled after 5 cost me a win last week and could cost me another one this week

Paul Sporer: I think at best they incrementally ramp him up back into the 80s and maybe 90s. Still gotta start him all the time, though

Gutted Pitching: I’m in first, H2H, but my pitching has completely fallen apart. Any tips for trying to survive the playoffs? Load up on relievers and try to steal categories?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t completely eschew starters, but instead dive into the schedules and find some gems that way

Jeffe: For dynasty can you rank Whitley, Honeywell, Mitch Keller, Justus Sheffield and Toussaint?

Paul Sporer: I loooove Honeywell, but he’s coming back from TJ so I’ve got him down the list a bit in response to that. Whitley, Keller, Honey, Keller, Sheff

Jeff : Eno put a Votto comp on Winker not too long ago – are you similarly hyped on him?

Paul Sporer: Hmmm, that’s interesting. I was starting to buy into Winker right before he got hurt, but I’m not *quite* as hyped as Eno and some others

Moelicious: Strickland is back – will he close again or is the job Will Harris‘ to lose?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s Will Smith’s job

Asking for a friend: Ward v. Chirinos ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m on this Ward hype train!

Ryan: Given playing time projections for both, would it be ok to drop Wilson Ramos for Taylor Ward? 12 team 5×5.

Paul Sporer: OK, but not quite THAT heavily on the hype train… still going Ramos

Please help!: My Mikolas and Suzuki for his Realmuto and F. Peralta?   Who ya got?

Paul Sporer: That’s tough bc I’m not sure Peralta makes it to the finish line IP-wise, but the Realmuto over Suzuki disparity is such that I might just take on that Peralta risk anyway

Cool: Bote’s GS on Sunday literally won me my matchup. Have you ever had a down to the wire moment like that, either for you or against you?

Paul Sporer: Definitely have had game-changing moments on Sundays and it’s thrilling, even when you’re on the crap end of it. I think it was a random SB that helped my best friend tie me in our AL-only lg on the last day of the season a few years back

Go A’s!: Puig or Calhoun?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Calhoun. (We discuss him on the pod coming out later today, btw)

Joey: Time to worry about Eddie Rosario?

Paul Sporer: Nah, he was electric for two straight months and I’m not that surprised at a comedown, even though it has been extended. He has a 4% HR/FB rate since July 1st and while he is hitting more GBs in that time, I don’t think this will last and he’ll finish fine

Hobbs: Are you still buying into Correa long term? I’m thinking of trying to buy low in my 12tm roto dynasty. I have Trea and Story, and I am currently in 1st place. You like either more than Correa?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m still buying Correa for sure. I don’t have a ton of split b/w the 3… leaning something like Story, Correa, Turner

Matzsui: I have limited FAAB remaining. Is adding Eloy for $1 ($1 min) worth the stash?

Paul Sporer: Ya not a bad gamble at min price even if there isn’t a GREAT probability of call up bc CWS is out of it

Zach: Call your shot special: Alex Bregman will wind up the best Astros hitter in 2019 and beyond, thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Perfectly plausible. He has the talent to be their best guy for sure

Laura: Think either bird or moncada provide any value ROS/turn it around? And who would I cut for ryu: Quintana or Castillo? Those guys have been keeping my bench warm but w Bauer’s hitting the DL need a guy I’m not scared to start! Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Think I’m done w/Q for the ROS and going Ryu/Castillo. As for Bird/Moncada, I’m tepid on both ROS at this point and would rather go for like Alonso and Mondesi or something

James: Michael Fulmer worth a stash in 14 man roto?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s on rehab and it’s not like the streaming landscape is so rich anyway

HappyFunBall: I keep doubting Buchholtz, and he keeps producing when I stream him … is it time to call him a “hold” (10xMixed) with a few curated starts here and there?

Paul Sporer: I’ve actually been using him in my 10 tm H2H for a couple weeks now. I’m as surprised as anyone given my disbelief in him for so long.

HH: I have too many outfielders in a 5-OF, 12-team OBP. Would you cut Nomar Mazara or Aaron Hicks or just ride it out?

Paul Sporer: I’m hanging onto both

Aaron: 5×5 roto: Justin Turner or Matt Chapman ROS

Paul Sporer: The last time someone asked me Turner v. someone, it was Carp just as Carp was heating up and I said Turner easily, so that was cool. I’m picking Chapman not just to go against Turner, but bc I truly believe it (also discuss Chapman on upcoming pod)

Doug: So did Fiers look good enough to you to be a $5 AL Only keeper next year if Oakland tenders him Arb3?  He was a $0 reserve round pick this year as a Tiger.

Paul Sporer: Hmmm, I could see a $5 keep in AL only if he stays w/OAK, but it’s not a lockdown. I’m buying ROS for sure, but not entirely ready to commit to ’19

Who is Gerald: and why is he in every recent chat (here and Klaw) asking about prospects?  Did I miss a meme?

Paul Sporer: Ya, no idea. Is a meme really a meme if you’re the only one who gets it? lol

Upton Funk: Literally just dropping in to share that I’m in a ~NICE~ category race for points in W, with myself and four other teams all tied for 69 wins.

Paul Sporer: Nice.

Michelle: In a fight for second place, had injuries and need AVG & Speed in a Deep Mixer (14 team, but 45 man rosters). I read your speedsters piece, but any average helpers I can pick up? Bonus if they are infielders.

Paul Sporer: Some of those speedsters could qualify bc speed can help AVG when paired w/great contact. Otherwise I also like: Taylor Ward, David Fletcher, Joey Wendle, Jorge Polanco, Willy Adames, Johan Camargo

motorcity42: I have to drop either Taylor Ward or Harrison Bader to make space for Pham. Who goes?

Paul Sporer: Gotta keep Bader. I know I’m using a lot of Ward questions, but I’m trying to show exactly where I’m at. As much as I like him, I do have limits

Finding Nimmo: Do you think Walker Buehler can develop into a true ace in 2019?

Paul Sporer: Certainly possible, yes

micah: Bader or Ozuna ROS?

Paul Sporer: Bader. Ozuna’s shoulder needs time off

Jim Leyland Palmer: What do you think of Moncada’s viability in a keep (5) forever league? He’s been tough to keep rostered but i can’t give up on his upside

Paul Sporer: Hard to see it even in a 15-teamer, though. Is he really a top 75 guy entirely on potential? With costs associated, I can get into keeping him, but straight top 5, nah

Al: What are the odds Aldaberto Mondesi is a top 100 5×5 player ROS and 2019? He has elite speed (#8 in statcast) and unlike the Dee Gordons and Billy Hamiltons he can hit dingers.

Paul Sporer: 25%. I’m a huge fan, but he does still need to make more contact to really fulfill his potential. Ks way too much for a speedster

tmh: In your opinion is either Luzardo or Paddock a #1 or @2 starter when all is said and done or are they both mid-rotation guys?

Paul Sporer: I rarely put a #1 upside on guys so I can’t put either there

Coin Flip: Gibson or Lynn ROS?

Paul Sporer: Gibby

Felix Millan: I’ve always thought every team wins 50 and loses 50, and it’s the other 62 games that determine the season. The Red Sox, Orioles, and Royals are going to test that theory.

Paul Sporer: Outliers don’t test the theory.

Loooo: we starting Kluber@BOS?

Paul Sporer: There’s no universe where benching Kluber is a positive EV play

Kenta Maeda: Now that I am in the bullpen, should I be dropped in 10-team mixed leagues??

Paul Sporer: Probably so, yes. At best, wait another appearance to see if he’s used as a closer type and then maybe hang on for some potential SVs,

Jackson: D Rod or Carlos Rodon ROS? Dynasty?

Paul Sporer: it’s probably Rodon no matter what, but D Rod’s hammy injury makes it easier to lean that way

Henry: Is Chris Sale the number 1 pitcher off the board next year?

Paul Sporer: In a lot of leagues, yes. Not universally, though. Scherzer will still be 1st in plenty of leagues

Fred: How much are you buying Matt Chapman’s breakout, offensively?

Paul Sporer: A good bit. I was buying this year bc I love defensive studs who have that locked in playing time

Dave: 12-team, keep-5 league… is Matt Carpenter in round 9 worthy of keeper consideration?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure in round 9

bleepbloop: Hi Paul, i’m out of it in Dynasty this year, does it make sense to drop guys (Castellanos, Schwarber, Muncy, Simmons, Cervelli) for top prospects like Tucker, Senzel, Tatis Jr., Robles?

Paul Sporer: How the heck are they available in dynasty?!?!

Paul Sporer: As for the question, I mean, sure. But that’s an interesting dynasty setup

Ken: Will Darvish contribute again this yr?

Paul Sporer: I’ll say yes. I believe he’s out on rehab now

Corey Kluber Fan Club: Story for Kluber in a keeper?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Story, but certainly fair on both ends

King of Ham: 7 out of my top 10 draft picks are currently on the DL…

Altuve

Sanchez

Donaldson

Cmart

Paxton

Darvish

Richards

Paul Sporer: Holy smokes, that’s brutal

Brian24: Who should be my $1 catcher for 2019 only–Barnhart or Dan Jansen?  The latter will probably have the better career, but the former plays a lot and is in his prime.  5×5 OBP league.

Paul Sporer: Ya I know most would go the prospect route w/Jansen, but I’m going Barnhart. I just don’t like betting on prospect Cs in the long-term

Paul Sporer: I gotta go edit and post the pod!

Paul Sporer: So I gotta get going, y’all. Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!

Paul Sporer: One last plug for my DK league tonight if you’re so inclined:

 

Paul Sporer

@sporer

 

Running a 35-person $5 DraftKings game for tomorrow if you’re interested! draftkings.com/draft/contest/…

17 Aug 2018