Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 11th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Dave: Too soon predictions (especially considering today’s IL move) for where Rodon and Ray will open next year in your SP rankings?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I really need to final 2 months for both to have a good feel of where I’m at. Rodon had to get some time off so this IL stint makes sense, epsec. when they have a ready made stud to fill in with Kopech.

Dave: I know you’re usually not into guys returning from TJ (at least immediately), but what are your ROS expectations for Sale? The reports from his rehab starts have been glowing…

Paul Sporer: I primarily eschew drafting them, but once back I start to give them more attention. Sale has no doubt looked sharp in his rehab outings. Usually my issue w/TJ returners for fantasy is that they will almost certainly hit a wall in a couple starts out of nowhere so the duds can outweigh the 2-3 gems and really hurt their numbers. Sale certainly looks ready to roll, though, and if you have him, you should be starting him once back

Martin: Keeper league question: Is one year of 26 yr old Bieber better than three of 30 yr old Gausman? 16 tm h2h 6×6 league with quality starts instead of wins. Other three keepers (you can keep four) are all hitters. No cost associated with either.

Paul Sporer: While I’m generally not super psyched to keep SPs long-term bc they love to break, I think I’d take the 3 years of Gausman here, especially in a league so deep

Tom: Who do you prefer ROS: DeJong or Luis Garcia (Nats)?

Paul Sporer: I think I’d lean DeJong but they are close

Scuffy Mcgee: Why haven’t we seen Jose Barrero up for cincy. He’s mashed in both Double A and Triple A

Paul Sporer: That’s a good question. Y’all may remember him as a Jose Garcia who got a call last year despite having not played past High-A. He changed his name to honor his mom IIRC. He’s been insane at AA (132 wRC+) and AAA (145). I wonder if Kyle Farmer’s surge kept him down a bit longer, but they could definitely use him once Farmer comes back to earth

Sum: technical/etymology question to educate my fantasy content consumption: is there a typical difference implied by “dynasty” vs. “keeper” leagues? does dynasty imply a deeper league (more guys further from reaching the majors)? do dynasty leagues typically feature no price inflation while keeper leagues do? seems like dynasty leagues are by definition keeper leagues – so wondering if there’s a difference. thanks!

Paul Sporer: Dynasty leagues imply keeping a lot more players, often the majority – if not all – of your team. Whereas a keeper league is a handful of players, usually ranging 2-10 players depending on the setup

Jerry: Hola Paul-What’s your keeper forever league FAAB strategy ROS for teams out of contention (DEEP minors)? Got about 20% of FAAB left that I’d prefer not to let sit unused.

Paul Sporer: Deep minors meaning the big prospects aren’t available? If that’s the case, I’d speculate on some AAA guys who are fringe prospects or not even prospects but could make an impact very soon. Try to find the next Lamont Wade Jr. type player

Scuffy Mcgee: You buy Lamonte Wade Jr to keep producing/playing. Lot of competition for ABs in SF

Paul Sporer: OK I planned that…

Paul Sporer: Re: Wade’s PT, it is getting tight, but he keeps performing so even as guys return, he is going to continue to play. He is still playing daily even w/Belt back and I think Alex Dickerson is more at risk than Wade if things get tighter. The fact that they’re leading off Wade tells me they’re in on him

Jefferson: Are you all-in with Luis Robert healthy and playing again? Or is it still wait and see for next year?

Paul Sporer: If I’ve got him, he’s going right into my lineup

Guest: Asked a few months ago if you thought Mullins could be a top 20 OF going forward and you said no.  Wondering if you’ve changed your opinion on that?  Not expecting him to be this good next year, but seems like 15/15 with a decent average should be doable.

Paul Sporer: LOL yep, I was skeptical of an out of nowhere OF maintaining top 20 status all year. Crazy, I know… I’m just not sure I understand the idea behind trying to call me out for that. He’s obviously stayed great, so you aren’t really asking if my opinion changed so much as you’re looking to embarrass me. I’m not embarrassed, I’ll always be skeptical of someone coming out of nowhere to have a superstar season. Change it to Adolis Garica, who I was even more skeptical of and look where we are at

Dave: Bellinger takes have been flying hot and fast the last couple days… what’s your medium-term opinion? Are you as pessimistic as Szymborski?

Paul Sporer: Maybe I’m a sucker, but I buy the shoulder issue. I just can’t see how that isn’t the primary reason for the epic fall off.

Mike Trout is Thirty: Any hope of Trout coming back this year =(

Paul Sporer: Some, but it’s getting dimmer by the day

Ml: Cristian Javier have any roto value down the stretch?

Paul Sporer: I still firmly believe he will trade spots w/Luis Garcia here soon. I just can’t envision a scenario where Garcia is allowed to start the entire rest of the way given his IP total

Eric: Spencer Howard worth keeping in 5×5 ottoneu?  He’s been quite terrible

Paul Sporer: No, he needn’t be kept

halp: trade deadline came and went for me without being able to pull anything off. what do you do when you need to make up ground in one are (SB), but are killing it in others with no really droppable hitters? Pitching is tight too so I’m looking at dropping a bopper for SB. thanks!

Paul Sporer: The tough part is the lack of SBs on the wire so it’s really hard to attack. Think your best bet is to troll AAA leaderboards and wait to pounce on those guys getting called up (Leody Taveras, the returns of Kyle Isbel/Vidal Brujan, etc…)

Ml: please rank ROS: Josiah Gray, Daniel Lynch, Shane Baz

Paul Sporer: You just did… can’t rank Baz above either of the two already in the majors, espec. bc there’s a strong shot he’ll be in the pen upon arrival this year

Scuffy Mcgee: Yoan moncada has seen his power evaporate, he’s not running at all either. Is he droppable in standard leagues?

Paul Sporer: Yes, we discussed that exact thing recently: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-965-was…

KCBbq: You think Toro has done enough yet for a ful time gig next year? What are your expectations?

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, I think he is absolutely part of their full time plans for ’22

Guest: Cooper Criswell.. he looks legit?

Paul Sporer: He’s been killing it, but most of his time this year was in AA and as a 24 yr old, he was pretty old for that level. Let’s see how he finishes in AAA

Fighting for first: I’m competitive in W, K, and SB in a tight race for 1st in my league. Both Mondesi and Shane Bieber got dropped this week. Either one worth dropping 95% of remaining FAAB on? have $221/$1000 left

Paul Sporer: I’d go for Mondesi. He’s on rehab already and while he isn’t doing well so far, there is just SOOO much upside

KCBbq: Think Schwarber wil stay in Boston next year?…..stays in the AL?

Paul Sporer: Really hard to say re: BOS, I’d guess not. But I could definitely see him looking to stay AL bc as he gets older, the DH option is a good fallback(though maybe the NL will get their shit together and get a permanent DH)

halp: re: SB. Straw is available but is he worth dropping W Franco for? My offense is otherwise excellent (top 2 in most categoies), but dead Iast in SB 🙁

Paul Sporer: Gahhh, I just can’t do that

JT_TheGinger: What is your ROS outlook for Kyle Gibson? Can he be trusted down the stretch or should he just go back to mowing your lawn?

Paul Sporer: The front yard is getting lengthy! He’s off to a solid start w/PHI, but I’d plan for a low-4.00s ERA and hope he can continue to stay below that

KCBbq: Care to place a % as to whether Haniger is with Seattle in 2022? I traded for him in my AL only keeper league with the expectation he stays.

Paul Sporer: He’s arb eligible. They could trade him as their youth movement continues, but I think there’s a good shot they hang onto him

Reece: Reece Hinds for the Reds looks like a ball player, takes good AB and carries himself well. Could be a Akil Baddoo type find but as infielder?

Paul Sporer: He’s a long way out having just hit A ball this year, but he’s got some nice upside as a legit power prospect. He doesn’t have the same profile as Baddoo. It’s more of a premium power focus w/some chip-in SBs

CT: Hey Paul, thanks again for the invaluable chats. Since we last visited last week, the waiver wire for pitchers has improbably gotten worse. In a 12tm roto, my options are young guys (Carlos Hernandez, Chris Rodriguez, Vladimir Gutierrez), older guys (Mike Minor), or injured/non-starters (Zach Eflin, Christian Javier). It’s not dire just yet, I have pieces to hold me over, but what direction would you recommend going?

Paul Sporer: Piggybacking on my comment earlier: I like Javier a lot and fully believe he’s going back in the rotation any day now. Hernandez has really impressed over his last 3 starts. I think they’re going 6-man w/Singer coming back, but I think that sets Hernandez up for a potential 2-start next week w/Monday & Sunday starts.

Rodriguez intrigues me a bit and could have some upside down the stretch. Gutierrez is confounding me. The metrics say his stuff is legitimately bad, but he’s maintaining a decent ERA at 4.15. I think it’s suspect and I’d be worried that he posts a 5.00+ rest of way.

Justin: Can I safely drop Brad Hand at this point? Non hold league.

Paul Sporer: Yes, the job is Romano’s

Guest: Ian Miller for SB just hope for a call up.

Paul Sporer: 11-for-11 with the Cubs in Triple-A. Definitely PT available in Chicago

CWS: Saw your mention of Kopech as a step-in for Rodon, but have you read anything about him actually doing that? I’m kind of thinking this is just a breather for Rodon and Kopech will continue to be a bullpen weapon through the postseason.

Paul Sporer: Well I’ve thought Kopech would come in for Cease at some pt anyway, so this could be the beginning and then Cease gets a breather when Rodon returns. It is speculation, but I just don’t see how they’d let Rodon or Cease get 32 starts and they have a VERY GOOD starter just waiting there in their pen

Paul “Jesus” Sporer: Yelich has looked real shaky not just coming off the IL but for more than a year. Where do you see him being taken next year?

Paul Sporer: Unless he finishes strong, he’ll definitely dip down to the backend of the top 100. He’ll be on every bounceback/sleeper list and then he’ll have a good spring and surge up draft boards

RAGBRAI: What is going on in Cincy? Are they going to catch the Padres? What about the Brewers? The schedule seems to be in their favor.

Paul Sporer: Schedule definitely favors them, but can their bullpen hold up? I liked the volume play they made at the deadline w/multiple acquisitions instead of just one name player hoping he’d fix it all (like RichRod or Kimbrel). I’m a sucker for this Reds team bc they have so much talent. Can’t have duds like Castillo’s earlier this week, but he’s been one of the best SPs in the game for last couple months so we can give him a break on a one-off dud

Yonny Hernandez: I steal a bunch of bags ROS?  I’m Leody Taveras in disguise?

Paul Sporer: Good call out and even better than Taveras rn bc he’s actually up in the majors. He is batting 2nd lately, too. He has 2 SBs already and swiped 21 in AAA

For Stolen Bases:

Brian Miller for the Fish, just got called up as well

Paul Sporer: 23-for-28 at AAA on the bases. Great call outs, y’all!

KCBbq: In a vaccum is Canha a keeper at $11 in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league? $260 team salary on auction day. His power numbers have been all over the board the past 4 years.

Paul Sporer: He’s been rough since returning from injury, but I really like Canha and definitely think 11 is keepable in AL

Bill: Dynasty: My Severino, D. May, Kirby for Story. I’m in 1st, and going for it and need IF reinforcements. And any worry about Story leaving Coors?

Paul Sporer: I’d do it. There is almost no chance he’s w/COL next year, but you’re trying to win now so you can worry about that next year

Chuck: Pablo Lopez is on the rehab train. Worth picking up where he was dropped? Think he can contribute in H2H playoffs?

Paul Sporer: You cannnn but I’m a bit pessimistic about him returning to contribute. By all accounts, the rehab process will be long. But if you can comfortably stash, I’m cool w/that

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: Assuming they come back healthy, might the time off actually be a plus for Urquidy and Pablo Lopez? (Yes, I need some hope.)

Paul Sporer: I’d lean Urq now that he’s been given a timetable of early September

Daro: Is Kaprielian for Donaldson a good trade? Do you believe Donaldson can stay healthy for ROS and be a top 75 bat?

Paul Sporer: In a vacuum, ya it works.

Chuck: Is Manoah a must-start guy now?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure

Bobby Bonilla: 12 team dynasty- safe to drop Mitch keller at this point? I just don’t see him fixing this in Pittsburgh.

Paul Sporer: Definitely

Mike E P: Lost several closers to the trade deadline, added Tejay Antone over Bednar, Patton, Bender.  Do you see him closing in Cincy?  Was surprised they didn’t add RP at trade deadline.

Paul Sporer: They added 3 RPs: Givens, Cessa, Wilson and they’ve all done well thus far. Yes, I think Antone has a shot to close upon return

Trent Grisham: AI be in a platoon when FT Jr. gets off the IL?

Paul Sporer: I don’t see why Grisham would lose PT, espec. bc he’s been better vL this year. I think Pham and Myers are in bigger danger

Dave: ROS multi-position bench guy: Toro or the Candy Man?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Toro for the couple SBs

deGrom: Is my timeline longer than Pablo’s?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. The way I understand it is that Lopez has to go through more checkpoints whereas deGrom is more about once healthy, he can go

MVP: Sounds crazy… but is Yelich droppable?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t do it

KCBbq: Another SB name to know……Jorge Mateo. Getting pt in Baltimore and one of the fastest speed guys in the game.

Paul Sporer: Yes, we discussed him on Monday’s pod. Justin loves him and Baltimore should give him all the PT he can handle

HappyFunBall: O/U on saves this season for Taylor Rogers?  I have 11 guys for 5 IR spots and I think he’s got to be the first to go…

Paul Sporer: O/U is 1.5 and I’ll take the under

Chilly: Matt Chapman, Canha, Brian Anderson ROS…who you got?  Or should I abandon ship on all 3?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size/type… need context

Jung Bong Jovi: Hey Paul, former Austin resident here now in Minneapolis.  No question, but just popping by to say hi, wish you well and thank you for all that you do.

Paul Sporer: Hey, thanks so much! Hope Minneapolis is treating you well!

Guest: Keep forever Dynasty, Vlad and Eloy or Acuna and Albies

Paul Sporer: There’s not really enough difference to have a strong preference. I’d go Vlad/Eloy but that’s probably just bc Vlad is healthy rn and Acuña isn’t

Seth R: as this is a Reds chat, how do you see their roster crunch working out, seems like we may end up with Suarez/Moose platoon with Senzel/Farmer as SS?

Paul Sporer: Yeah Senzel is going to play CF/SS. Think Farmer really only mixes in vL as he comes back to earth. Even w/his hot run, he has a .737 season OPS

boobie miles: Rest of season, need one arm…..E. Morgan, K. Bubic,  J. Barria, G. Jax or D. Bundy..need one, as I justlost Stripling & Rodon. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’ve become a Morgan fan as my friend and fellow NFBCer Gregg Martin put me on him. I love CLE pitchers in general so I’m surprised I wasn’t already interested in him, but ya there’s some real stuff there for Morgan to build on

Guest: Of these 4 pitchers, which 2 do you keep for next year: Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Lynn? I’m leaning Woodruff and Burnes…correct logic there?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know that there’s a correct/incorrect logic w/four studs like that. I certainly have no issue w/keeping those 2. I love Lynn, but not sure I can justify keeping him over Burnes (Woody is the lock for me)

Dave: Gut feeling– who’s playing SS for the Tigers on Opening Day next year?

Paul Sporer: Carlos Correa (I’m not joking)

Trevor Bauer: Should people just drop me?

Paul Sporer: Should’ve ages ago

Seth R: Hunter Greene is excellent

 

JJ Cooper

@jjcoop36

 

Pretty interesting tidbit from the Prospect Hot Sheet.

30+ Most 100+ MPH pitches in one outing 2008-2021.
MLB: Jake deGrom, 33, June 5, 2021.
(No others)

Hunter Greene in 9 AAA starts
37: Aug. 5, 2021
36: July 18, 2021
31: June 29, 2021

baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sh…

10 Aug 2021

Paul Sporer: Yes, he is! Gimme!!! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/5-aaa-starters-who-could-be-up-soon/

Jung Bong Jovi: It is, thank you.  I do miss all of the wonderful foods in Austin though.  Lived just around the corner from Home Slice.  *sigh*

Paul Sporer: Ooh that made my mouth water. Now I want some Home Slice!!!

Limited starts ahead: Sit/Start Ohtani vs. TOR tomorrow? AL Only, protecting ratios, eventual start limit…

Paul Sporer: I think you’ve carved out why you should sit him. He could def own them, but protecting ratios says pass

re:Donaldson: I traded for Donaldson recently and he’s just sitting all the time…

Paul Sporer: He was nursing an injury for a few days so hard to judge him right now. Should be playing quite often when healthy, sit tigh

KarinChakMate?: Love your stuff Paul! Are we holding Guardians’ closer of the future Karinchak in 12s (saves only)? 15s?

Paul Sporer: I’d hold in 15s, but are you sure Clase isn’t the closer of the now AND future?

Dave: Re: Detroit on OD– Correa at SS and Verlander starting

Paul Sporer: OK, I can only get SO excited. I’d love to see JV come back, but that’s more of a luxury. Correa or any of the other premium SS make SO much sense for the Tigers given where they are and what they have coming. Correa fits so well bc of Hinch, of course, but I’d take Story or Semien, too.

Guest: H2H categories redraft 12×12. I took Lindor in the 2nd round and am in 7th place, dealt Lindor and Stanton for Gleyber with Franco my only SS and now Gleyber is down. Would you deal Darvish and Ryu to get back T Story?

Paul Sporer: It’d take BOTH of those arms for Story? Usually SPs are more valuable in H2H so that’s surprising to me. I don’t think I’d do that

Guest: I have Carlos Hernandez and Luis Gil…how excited should I be that I scooped up some 2nd half studs?

Paul Sporer: Eh, moderately. Neither is a lock and Gil was sent back down for roster space. He should return, but there are no guarantees once Cole and Montgomery return from COVID and German from shoulder inflammation.

Guest: Re: Mullins was definitely not trying to call you out at all, was just genuinely asking if your opinion had changed since we now have 2 more months of data.

Paul Sporer: Fair enough. It def felt like a dunk attempt. But yeah, obviously he’s proven himself to be a stud. There’s a lot of believability in what he’s doing, too

Dinger: Rockie to roll with: Cron or Joe?

Paul Sporer: Cron for me

Guest: Reynaldo Lopez looked good today (3IP, 4K, 1.00 WHIP) and as a reliever. Thoughts on ROS if Rodon stays down or is Kopech someone to watch?

Paul Sporer: NOOOOO don’t do it!!!!!!!

Paul Sporer: As a recovering Reynaldolyte, I strongly encourage you to stay away!!!

Jung Bong Jovi: Now on PizzaGraphs.  Austin Pizza Garden was killer too.  I think Höeks Death Metal Pizza is no longer around.  They were fun while bouncing around 6th Street.

Paul Sporer: I need so much pizza now

Chilly: sorry…chap,canha, b anderson its a 12 team keep all dynasty but 50 active/reserve spots and 20 minors.  but i want yonny!

Paul Sporer: No one else cuttable? Kinda hard to merk any of those 3 in a dynasty, but if you really need Yonny’s SB upside, do it for Anderson

KCC26: 12 team mixer:  Alonso/Hendricks/Diaz or Olson

Paul Sporer: If you need the pitching, that’s an OK deal. I generally try to consolidate talent in 10 and 12 teamers, but I’m cool w/both sides here

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe [It’s Been a While]: The Nationals have baseball’s richest ownership and a lot of needs. Do you think they go slow with the rebuild [and get guys like Marwin Gonzalez or Jose Iglesias to fill holes] or use some of that money and the partially-revamped farm system to grab one of the marquee shortstops, one of the interesting bats, and some pitching?

Paul Sporer: It’s hard to say for sure bc of the uncertain CBA, but I could see them trying to speed up the turnaround w/some big activity in the FA market as opposed to a full scale teardown & rebuild

Barty Crouch…JUNIOR: Is Bobby Witt Jr getting called up this year? And if so is he a fantasy playoffs difference maker?

Paul Sporer: I doubt they start clock, but he’d be a must pickup if called up

Duchess: Man Cole Irvin – results (ERA, FIP) are great, but indicator stats  (SIERA, xFIP, xERA) are a full run higher. in a $260 cap league, is he a keeper next year, or more of a nice dollar draft guy again?

Paul Sporer: Not a keeper, definitely a throwback and speculate again or find the next Cole Irvin

Club Dub: Currently have Floro-Bender handcuff in a Save-Hold league. Not ideal. Best on the wire that I can tell is Colome, R Wick and Tanner Scott. Is there a good swap out?

Paul Sporer: Not really, I’d just ride w/the Marlins combo

Guest: Baddoo replacement: Cain, Santander or Renfroe?

Paul Sporer: Cain if you want to ensure some replacement of Baddoo’s SBs, otherwise Santander.

Seeking ratios: Thoughts on Joe Ryan? Minor league stats and olympics are impressive. Does he get called up soon or should I snatch bumgardner or price off waivers

Paul Sporer: I dig him: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/5-aaa-starters-who-could-be-up-soon/

AJ: Why isnt Miranda up yet?

Paul Sporer: Jose Miranda has had an excellent season at AA/AAA for Minnesota. He can move around the diamond so I think he should get a call at some pt even w/the Twins out of it. If and when he’s up, I’d take a shot on him anywhere

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!