Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 11, 2017

Paul Sporer: It’s chat time!!!

Dylan: Start Hamels tonight against Houston or keep on bench?

Paul Sporer: Pass in 10 and 12

Rob: Paul! Miggy is gonna finish out the last bit strong right?! Or is all hope gone ?

Paul Sporer: I’ve kinda given up the idea that a flourish is coming. MLB The Show has, too. They upgrade the cards every week based on real life performance and they gave him a really long leash before finally moving him from diamond to gold just today

Cory: In a keeper league, currently in first place and lost Paxton last night…  Glasnow or Woodruff?

Paul Sporer: Is Glasnow back up? If so, take a shot on his streamlined mechanics

Cory: Flip a coin, Cesar Hernandez or Starlin Castro at 2b for ROS?

Paul Sporer: Cesar

Rob: Have been struggling with Ramos at catcher batting a robust sub .200

Paul Sporer: Ya, you can look elsewhere. Always risky to jump on guys coming from big injuries. I thought he’d hit a bit

Rob: have vazquez James McCann and Avila on the wire. Would you take them over Ramos rest of season? Also good to have you back!

Paul Sporer: Avila with his new PT

Mark: What are the odds that Winker can have a Markakis-like career?

Paul Sporer: 27%

Paul Sporer:

Steve: Need an OF Stash ROS looking for upside.  Hoskins, Michael Taylor, Desmond, Fisher, Pirela, or Nick Williams?

Paul Sporer: I’d take a shot on that Hoskins power

JSC: In a shallow 10 team would you rather have Aroldis Chapman or Benintendi for the ROS and next year at the same keeper price?

Paul Sporer: Beni in long term. RP too volatile to keep in a 10 teamer

Hannah Hochevar: Hey Paul. Stroman or Carrasco going forward?

Paul Sporer: Carrasco is so frustrating with his volatility, but I still trust his skills by a nose over Stro

808: Thoughts on woodruff?

Paul Sporer: Haven’t seen him yet

Paul Sporer fan: What’s going on with Miguel Cabrera?  Is it a bat speed issure?What do you expect him to do for the rest of year?

Paul Sporer: Nagging injuries that he’s playing through. We throw around stuff like “this guy at 80% is better than most of the league” or other hyperbole, but in actuality 80-85% of a superstar is about avg (~95-105 wRC+)

Paul Sporer:

Detroit’s Most Wanted: Happy Friday Paul, thanks for the chat. Do you have any confidence in Jharel Cotton ROS? I like his upside in the future, but Im playing to win my league now. Would you add Woodruff in a h2h pts league and drop him? Or even Luke Weaver and hope he gets the call again?

Paul Sporer: Weaver is my favorite of that trio so I’d want him if/when he’s back, but I’ll go Cotton over Woodruff rn pending an actual look at Woodruff

big trade: hey Paul been trying to reach you in this chat for a few weeks and on snap…curious your thoughts on my trade. 10 team deep roster OBP QS league. We keep all players. 15 active hitter 15 active pitchers 10 man bench 20 man farm. I traded Rizzo, Lindor, Archer, and Acuna and got back Corey Seager, Jose Ramirez, Chris Taylor, Kenley Jansen, and Luis Ortiz. How do you think I did? I’m in second place with my eyes on first.

Paul Sporer: I don’t hate it, you got the extra MLBer. I’m not sure the Acuna/Ortiz part needed to be included. Or if it did, you could’ve extracted a little more. But it’s definitely not *bad*

808: Is didi one of the most underrated SS in game rn?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m not sure he gets his full due. Very solid player

Hannah Hochevar: Hanley vs. Hosmer ROS?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Hanley

Paul Sporer: lol i didn’t spend all that time studying those 2, had to answer a call

Brad: My league tradeline Sunday. Any chance an update sp rankings by you? Pretty please with cherry on top. ?

Paul Sporer: Unfortunately not by Sunday, but next week, yes

Paul Sporer’s biggest fan: Closest comp to Rhys?

Paul Sporer: Haven’t seen him play so it’s purely by stats but he looks like a guy with power who doesn’t K much which instantly reminds me of Edwin. I’d imagine he’s a poor man’s Edwin AT BEST, of course, or he’d have already been up. But the prospect industry has slowly come around on Hoskins

808: Yo Paul..curious how you broke into this business..what was your major in college and your first job out of college

Paul Sporer: I’ve been writing online since about 2001 or so at various outlets including my own blog. I did the SP Guide as a giant message board post on Rotojunkie.com for years before finally making it a separate thing. the SP guide gave me a little presence but the big break came when I asked BP if they needed anyone for fantasy writing and they did. worked with them for a little while before moving here to FG.

Paul Sporer:

Brian : Any shine off of Benintemdi long term?

Paul Sporer: Nah, honestly this is pretty much what I expected. He’s regularly drawn Yelich comps and those feel even more apt now after 2/3rds of the season

Brian : 8 back in keeper roto.  I have Devers and a small chance of winning.  Cash him in or ride it out with him?

Paul Sporer: At least field some offers and see if you can make a big impact where you have the most available points, but if the offers come up short, hang on

Kevin: Are you worried about Manaea? Two straight bad outings, and I’m really hesitant about starting him tonight.

Paul Sporer: Sucks to give 2 away against nice matchups (LAA, SF), but I’m still using him in just about every format. Velo down a little, but I don’t see anything else (although it was a cursory look at his profile) that has me running for the hills

Brian : Cano days as elite keeper are long past, right?

Paul Sporer: Ya, hard to view any mid-30s player as an elite keeper. Just a lot can go wrong. He hasn’t matched his awesome 2016, but he’s been fine

Kyle: If the price is acquire is low, would you acquire Thames for ROS and as a low cost keeper?

Paul Sporer: It should be low for sure, so if it’s not, then pass. But yes, I’d still buy in on the cheap.

MooseknuckleCurves: In a one year keeper league, which pitcher do you keep for next year? Berrios, Honeywell, Kopech, or Lopez?

Paul Sporer: I think that’s the exact ranking I’d have

Walker: Start me at cubs tonight?

Paul Sporer: Walker. Walker…. Walkerrrr…. TAIJUAN!!! I couldn’t think of it at first. Yeah, I am.

Mark: Is Springer having a breakout season?

Paul Sporer: For sure. Three years of really good production (120s wRC+) and now a 150+ flourish

Contreras: If I’m not coming back till September at earliest what size league do you hold onto me in?

Paul Sporer: Surely you can DL him, no? If not, I can see cutting him in 10 teamers to get someone in there

Brian : What round do you think Acuna goes on next year?

Paul Sporer: Probably way too early whatever round it is. If he gets a September look and does anything, it’ll be something very stupid like early-double digits. Otherwise, it’ll be mid-to-late teens

Big Tuna: If I’m in it, do I trade keepable Fulmer for non keeper Kershaw? Worried he only makes like 2 starts.

Paul Sporer: Ya I kinda agree with the emoji. I can’t do that

Kyle: Thoughts on a replacement for Contreras? My choices are Wellington, C. Vasquez or d’Arnaud atm. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Beeef!

Paul Sporer: Guys, what makes you think I’m going to answer questions about Zeke Elliott’s draft stock? lol

Paul Sporer: I play fantasy football, but I’m not going to start answering NFL Qs, lol

Porcho Villa: Grandal is killing me! Any ideas for a waiver wire replacement (12-teamer, 1 catcher)?

Paul Sporer: You’d have to let me know who’s available

Harold: Is it time to drop Thames and Alonso? I’m feeling like Derek Fisher and Hoskins will perform just as well or better ROS.

Paul Sporer: I imagine 10 teamer? In 10 teamers, I’m open to cutting either for someone you prefer

Cory: Ryan McMahon is coming up for Colorado…  Excited?  I’m worried about no position…

Paul Sporer: They’re not calling him up to sit him, though. Anyone coming up to Colorado has me interested

Rob: I have my choice of Carrasco, G. Cole or Quintana for Rizzo. Would you take one of those three?

Paul Sporer: Cole and Carrasco are VERY close, so I’ll go NL & PNC Park as the tiebreaker

Porcho Villa: Is it breakout time for Rodon? Dominant for his last three starts, and walks are way down.

Paul Sporer: I was looking for a breakout this year before the injury so I’m definitely in on Rodon. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-eight-pitchers-wort…

Batman: My playoffs start in 3 weeks and I am hesitant to drop Felix or Cueto even though it would help relieve some depth/cap issues. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I’d be OK dropping Felix

Mallex P. Keaton: If you’re driving for a H2H championship in a 12 teamer with only 4 keepers, you pretty HAVR

Paul Sporer: what?

RJ: Is Wong good now?

Paul Sporer:

Paul Sporer: Kolten Wong is aight. I wouldn’t go too far based on what we’ve seen

Small Farts: Darvish good? Darvish good!

Paul Sporer: Of course he’s good!

famin: Ryan McMahon worth picking up in 13-tm keeper league? Is he better than Castellanos ROS?

Paul Sporer: Yes worth a scoop, not sure he’s better than Casty

Jeremy: Miguel Cabrera just became available in my league. Would you drop Hosmer and his declining xwOBA for a shot at a Miguel rebound? Votto is my starter.

Paul Sporer: I don’t hate that

Mallex P. Keaton: If you’re driving for a championship in a 12 team H2H league with only 4 keepers, sitting comfortably in first…. it’s a no doubter to trade a pick in round 10 (of 25 rounds) or beyond if you’re receiving a top 100 player in return, right?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, that definitely works

I’m Chip, he’s Dale: I can keep Smoak at $8 next year. Seems like a pretty solid bet at this point, right?

Paul Sporer: I’m not ENTIRELY sold that he’s a stud now as the drop in K% seems to be the only real change (though that’s a good basis for getting better), but at $8, he can’t really hurt you so I like that keep

Matt: What do I do about all the injuries right now?  Strasburg, Trea and Correa taking up my 3 DL spots, Robbie Ray and Salvador Perez on the DL, but active.  On top of that, I’m limited to 3 transactions a week, making it difficult to stream and find a replacement.  Any advice?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Daaaamn, that’s brutal. I can get behind cutting Perez and even Ray, tbh, but Perez especially. 2 months of a replacement v. 1 month of Perez is at least a wash

Pat: Snagged Dom Smith and Rhys Hoskins in my 10 tm mixed roto, I desperately need HRs. Should I be starting them every day (that they are starting of course) over the likes of Lucroy and Zimmer?

Paul Sporer: I don’t see Smith being a real big play in 10 teamers. I’d go for McMahon from COL over him

Robby: Tommy Pham and Ryan Brain for Marcus Stroman (redraft points league) Which side do you like?

Paul Sporer: Pts lg so SPs get a big boost usually, right? Think I like the 2 hitters, though

Dylan: Think Bour comes back in time this year or should I cut bait?

Paul Sporer: Ehh, we’re looking at maybe 3 weeks of PT. I can cut bait in 10/12 teamers for sure

Porcho Villa: Would you go all in on Joey Gallo right now for a playoff push right now? Seems like one of the best power bats available.

Paul Sporer: Go all in how? Like trading for him or just scooping him up and using him? Think he’s someone you just gotta play if you have him. Trying to time his success will leave you frustrated af

Paul Sporer: BRB, gotta take Charlotte out

Paul Sporer:

Doctor Kuhl: Am I turning the page?

Paul Sporer: Definitely think Chad Kuhl is starting to put some things together. Has some great components for a 2018 breakout, too. I’m becoming a fan more and more

Dylan: Rivero got dropped in my league. I have Giles, Rosenthal, Doolittle, and Hand. Should I drop any of those for Rivero or just stay put?

Paul Sporer: Maybe Rivero for Hand just bc Pit > SD, but you don’t really NEED Rivero

Paul Sporer: Seems crazy that he was cut, though

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Grandal has been sitting a lot and I want a second catcher to use on his off days.  Martin, Avila, Beef, or any other shitty catcher you can think of?

Paul Sporer: Beef or Avila are my faves

Rick: Homers for Dom Smith ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m no major Hosmer fan, but I still prefer him here

i got inability inside my dna: Folty @ STL tomorrow?

Paul Sporer: Let’s go for it

i got inability inside my dna: Pirela or Pearce for 2B?

Paul Sporer: Pearce

Tallulah Trebuchet: I’m fine on starters and want to gain some ground in Ks, ERA, and WHIP, all three of which are tight races. I am too far behind the person ahead of me in saves to gain any ground there. So my question is, setting saves aside, who are your favorite relievers who can help me in those categories? Maybe even multi-inning guys?

Paul Sporer: Outside of closers – Tommy Kahnle, Chad Green, Pat Neshek, Archie Bradley, Chris Devenski, Kirby Yates, Blake Parker. Brian Duensing has been sneak-tip solid, too

Parra the Rappa: Dylan Bundy ROS?  He has been hot lately.  Better than Straily or Estrada?

Paul Sporer: Has def looked sharp, but those 3 are the same kinda guy. I’d dig in on their schedules and see if you can find an edge there. Not sure there are vast skill differences between ’em

Bob: Hey Paul!  Avila or Zunino in a Roto OBP?

Paul Sporer: #NeverZunino

Peter: With the Nationals almost assuredly being #2 seed in playoffs, should I consider moving scherzer in a redraft league? Will he be given a lighter load, skipped starts here in the next 7 weeks ?

Paul Sporer: I feel like we never really see that and I especially don’t see it with Max

bob loblaw: best case scenario for dom smith —- mark grace?

Paul Sporer: Ya, it seems so

Jason: Who you got? Jordan Montgomery or Luis Castillo ROS? Or, do you think they both get shut down soon?

Paul Sporer: I’ll take J Mo. They might not be able to shut him down if they need him while Cincy can do whatever they want (though Castillo had 130 IP last yr so I’m not sure he’s an automatic shutdown candidate)

Dave: Everybody is trying to get Bellinger from me (12 team h2h, obp league). Somebody just offered Severino, Alex Wood, Gary Sanchez, AND Mookie Betts for him (Severino, Sanchez, and Belly will all be keepable for 2018, only Belli for 2019). Even if I’m trying to win this year, I gotta say no to this, right?

Paul Sporer: Wait, why would you say no? That’s an insane deal for you, no?

toki: 10 team OPS Wil Myers and Sentzel for Nola.  Which side do you like value wise?

Paul Sporer: Pretty fair, I prefer Nola side even though I usually opt for hitters. Just love Nola’s talent when healthy

Detroit’s Most Wanted: Do you think Danny Salazar keeps this up ROS? Has looked great since he came off the DL

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think he remains a strong option ROS. We’ve seen it before and he’s been nails since coming back.

Max Kepler: Is Max Kepler a good example of growth not being linear this year? Or is this closer to what he is? My eyes tell me its the former

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’s better than this. Plus, there has been some growth vR, it’s just that he’s a nightmare vL this year

Webster: acuna

Paul Sporer: matata

Jean Ralphio: Would you trade Stanton for Kershaw? (10 team keeper)

Paul Sporer: Probably not

BP for my Byung Ho: Why can’t I drop Healy? Please tell why I shouldn’t. 16 team 6×6 h2h

Paul Sporer: 16 team league seems tough to cut. I think I’d ride it out

Richard: Hi Paul.  12 team AL Only.  Do you prefer Junis or Pruitt ROS?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Junis, but I can’t find much split between ’em

Porcho Villa: Thoughts on your man Alex Wood? Looked better this week vs. ARI but still worried about fatigue…

Paul Sporer: Was encouraged by the reports of his bullpen changes that brought the velo back. Still a big fan

Slamboni: Which 2 of these 3 should I start: Manaea vs BAL, Ervin Santana @ DET, Wacha vs ATL

Paul Sporer: Wacha and Big Erv

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: I feel like I have a safe enough lead now where I’m going to win my league.  Serve me some humble pie so I don’t become lackadaisical.

Paul Sporer: Think about quickly injuries can change your entire outlook. Just go review the superstars who’ve been injured in the last month. Your team isn’t immune. Never take your foot off the gas

Porcho Villa: Would you trade Thames to get Gallo straight up right now?

Paul Sporer: Sure

Jason: Sonny Gray due for some wins based on the QS streak? Or should I be worried?

Paul Sporer: Much better situation for him to get Ws… though they’re a fickle bitch

Chris: Seriously, though… Kris Bryant… where is the power?? 🙁

Paul Sporer: It’s underwhelming compared to expectations, but his output is very much in the range of outcomes so it’s hard to be too bummed

Dan: Start or bench today: Duffy vs. CWS, Morton vs. TEX, Tallion vs. TOR

Paul Sporer: Start em all

bob loblaw: how much do the kershaw injuries affect his value next year?   he’s still the best pitcher out there but lost a lot of time the past 2 years (at the worst time possible–angry face)

Paul Sporer: Push him down to later in the 1st round I’d think

Scott: 3 good starts from Estrada… is he back?

Paul Sporer: And 2 against good teams. Looks a lot better of late. Think he’s trustworthy w/a 3.60-3.90 range in mind as the expectation

Big Tuna: Re: trading for Kershaw. Would you trade keepable Salazar for him? Add Mazara if I have to?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t, no. Not while going for it this year. I need guys on the field

Big Maple: Pec strain for Paxton.  How serious is that kind of injury? Chance he’s done for the year?

Paul Sporer: Ughhhh

Paul Sporer: Not sure on the outlook of a strained pec, but it doesn’t seem great

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. New SP rankings and a marathon chat next week.

Paul Sporer: Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (twitch.tv/psporer24) where I stream MLB The Show (will be going live later today). You can always send Qs on Twitter, too. I usually get to most of ’em. Have a great weekend!

blerg: Is Miguel Cabrera pulling a Pujols and will never be the same or will he return to form?

Paul Sporer: Eno did make that comparison on the pod yesterday. It’s definitely possible. 🙁