Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 30th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, welcome to the chat!

Bog: Is Matt Boyd’s HR problem going to start rearing it’s ugly head soon?

Paul Sporer: It certainly could if the 8% HR/FB rises… I’m a little more concerned that the bill is gonna come due on his 1.38 WHIP soon, espec. if the 20% K rate doesn’t improve. Like him tonight at PIT, but nervous in tough matchups rn

Grade the Trade: Hey Paul, need your thoughts on a deal I’m proposing in a 10T 5×5 OBP roto lg: I give Semien, Ober and Pepiot and get Robert Jr, Bibee and Bednar

Paul Sporer: I think you’re paying a bit much, tbh. It’s not egregious, but Ober is the best player in the deal, I’m nervous about Bednar, and I’m not sure Robert Jr. will get on track if he isn’t traded outta CHI

Vader: Should we be jumping all over Polanco before he starts batting right handed too?!

Paul Sporer: He’s definitely gonna cool down, but I’m fully on board w/picking him up. He’s a solid plus bat when healthy and is of course completely dialed in rn

MS23: Who do you like better as an IL stash in a 5×5, Jared Jones or Bieber?

Paul Sporer: I guesssss Bieber bc he’s at least had surgery and working his way back while Jones is still up in the air and might still need surgery if this rehab program doesn’t work

Chase Clase?: In need of a closer but everyone in my league is hoarding hard. I’m exploring trading for Clase — what’s an appropriate price to pay for him right now?

Paul Sporer: I’d aim for a 2-4 type discount right now and go from there. I don’t think I’d pay full price, so if the negotiations are looking like there’s no discount available, I’d move on

danny: i just traded julio rodriguez for kwan, bubic, and nimmo in a 5×5 league. am i dumb?

Paul Sporer: No, not dumb. Def traded “quality for quantity” in that you gave the single best player, but ideally filled 3 spots that needed love. I do prefer a trade like this in a deeper league. In a 10-teamer, I often prefer getting the better player.

Tim: What’s the story with Dylan Cease this season?

Paul Sporer: Feels like classic inconsistent Cease, tbh, which is why he’s one of those “buy the dip” guys where we usually wanna get him when the price is lower

Paul Sporer: Definitely not someone I’d consider cutting or anything despite the struggles early on

Tim: Please rank these SP for ROS: Jobe, Olson, Liberatore.

Paul Sporer: Olson, Jobe, Liberatore… 3 of my faves, tbh! I love that Liberatore is cookin so far, always been a big of his

Roman Anthony: What’s my ETA? And when should people start to hold in leagues where he’s a FA?

Paul Sporer: Prospect ETAs are legit impossible to predict bc an injury can immediately flip it. I haaaave to think Rafaela needs to be looking over his shoulder right now given his performance (despite some improvements in his plate skills). If you have a spot, he’s worth stashing anywhere bc once he’s up, there’ll be a mad dash to get him

JP: Spencer Horowitz — Are you buying before he’s activated?

Paul Sporer: Yes in deeper leagues. Probably still gonna wait & see in shallower formats despite being a huge fan of his prior to this injury

Tim: Who do you like better at 3B ROS: Royce Lewis once he returns or Chapman?

Paul Sporer: Gahhh I love Royce, I really really do, but I gotta stay Chapman there. He’s just so much more bankable right now and it’s not like Chap’s skills stink or anything

ST: Gavin Williams — how long can I hold for? Who would I replace for him for in a 10 team?

Paul Sporer: I’m holding through the TOR start, but if he’s bad again, I understand sitting for PHI next wk. I’d still preferrrr to hold him, but I do acknowledge that he’s getting cuttable in 10s. As for who to pick up, I’d need to know who’s available.

Why, Wes, Why?: Wesneski just getting skipped this week out of the blue sort of blows. I went from stoked he was getting the CrySox to wondering why I had to hold him on my roster…

Paul Sporer: AWWWW MANNNN I thought he was just getting moved to the White Sox. I missed that he got fully skipped 🙁

Steve: Drop Shea for Agustin in a 1-C OBP league? Which catchers would you NOT drop for the young phenom?

Paul Sporer: Oooh I don’t think I’m quite there with Ramirez just yet. Part of it is I love Bangaliers, too, so I’m holding tight there. Cs I wouldn’t cut for Ramirez include: Adley, the Contreraii, Sal, Cal, Shea, Will Smith, Wells, JTR, O’Hoppe, Murphy, and maaaybe Carson Kelly who is just completely on fire rn.

Blubaugh: I already like the name, but can Blubaugh stay up with McCullers on the return?

Paul Sporer: Not as a starter. He’s more of a swingman type, IMO

COLT: KEITH

Colt Keith: I hit the ball in the air!

Paul Sporer: And then a walk after the HR. Dialed in this afternoon so far.

Dan: thoughts on PCA for the rest of this year, and beyond? What does his stat line look like come seasons end as far as hr/sb/avg? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I think even if the AVG fades and he hits like .240 rest of way, it’ll still come with a buncha HRs & SBs, season ending line of: .255, 22, 44

Matt: Gavin Lux looking like a legit late breakout?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. Fully healthy, in a great place to hit. I’m a huge fan of his so I’ve been hoping for this for a while

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. I accidentally double-booked myself today so I apologize for the light second half of the chat. I’ll make it up to y’all next week with some extra time. I’m doing the Tigers-Stros game on PitcherList’s Playback channel right now if you’re interested and I will answer Qs there, too! https://www.playback.tv/pitcherlist