Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 26th, 2019

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon everyone, it’s chat time!!!

MartinEllinger: Tommy La Stella WTF

Paul Sporer: It’s absolutely insane. I have no explanation, lol

cavebird: Does it look like Castellanos’s cold start is just noise, or is there something to worry about here?

Paul Sporer: Not particularly worried, I’d be open to buying

Lucas: Thoughts on tailon for pham trade in 12 team roto mixed obp league? current pitchers are cole, morton, marco g, rich hill, heaney, luke weaver, matt boyd, and tailon

Paul Sporer: Totally fair. Your pitching can definitely sustain without Taillon and Pham is an all-categories beast.

Pretty Tony: Would you take Duffy over Pineda or Thornton?

Paul Sporer: Danny Duffy? Probably not, no.

ben: sell high on luis castillo or is this sustainable

Paul Sporer: He obv won’t be a sub-2.00 ERA guy all year, but I think he can definitely post a low-3.00s with a boatload of Ks. I’m inclined to hold unless I get my socks knocked off

Larry: What position is Kieboom going to play?

Donnie Sadler: What do you expect from Carter Kieboom?

Paul Sporer: Shortstop for now. Not really sure what to expect, but he’s a must-add bc his upside is so high. Could hit the ground running with some AVG & pwr upside

Flash: dynasty points league: Winker and Starlin Castro for Nimmo and Brandon Lowe?

Paul Sporer: Feels fair, I can get behind either side

Greta: Would you feel comfortable giving up Chris Paddack and Trey Mancini in a 12-team H2H points league for Eloy Jimenez and Mikolas/Porcello? Eloy can be kept in the 19th round and loses a year going forward. Paddack in the 9th round. We keep 4.

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s fair. I’m not particularly worried about Eloy so I think his next 5 months will be strong, though even if he does underwhelm, it’s 10 rounds of keeper value

Slapshot: Who do you like more, both short term and rest of the season: Kyle Hendricks or Marco Gonzales?  Traditional 5×5 roto.

Bill: So Marco Gonzales – who knew?

Paul Sporer: Honestly I’d just play the schedule short-term… they’re not that different long-term. Kind of an AL/NL version of one another. As for who knew, he had a 13-start run of 2.44 ERA from mid-May through July last year.

chattin’: Who do you prefer ROS in standard 12 teams, Goodrum or Laureano?

Paul Sporer: Goodrum is the best fantasy option right now. Output is similar right now, but better skills, more positional flexibility for Goodrum

Turgid: Wong or LeMahieu?

Paul Sporer: Feels like a coinflip skills-wise, but I’d lean DJLM for now bc he’ll bat higher

Walugi Time: Total noob question – why are people putting more faith in guys like Muncy than Christian Walker? Am I too statcast dependent, or is Muncy looking more and more like a 1 year wonder?

Paul Sporer: Are they? Walker seems pretty popular.

Robert: Nola had a very good start yesterday.  Should I disregard his cold start of the season? I have him an my ace in two leagues.

Paul Sporer: You can acknowledge the slow start, but the thing is there’s nothing actionable it. You were never going to cut Nola, so you just gotta ride it out

SP me: Would you sell high on Musrgove or is he pretty forreal? IP/QS lg.

Paul Sporer: I was a pretty huge fan coming into the season, so I’m holding

Jung Ho Kang Bang: Is today official “Cut Ross Stripling Day”?  I’d be keeping Skaggs and Lyles instead.  10 team H2H.

Paul Sporer: You can in 10 teamer 🙁

AJ: Is Dahl a buy or sell?  I feel like the line between 30 HR All-Star and injured/wasted season is razor thin.

Paul Sporer: I understand his health profile has been crappy, but that’s the line for virtually anyone, so I’ll buy premium skills which Dahl has

Mike: Roenis Elias or Pedro Strop rest of the way in h2h points league? Also Odor or Cesar Hernandez Ros?

Paul Sporer: Strop, Odor

AF: Too early to call Caleb Smith an ace?

Paul Sporer: Faaaaaaaar too early

Paul Sporer: About 5 months too early

Anonymous: Cut Jesus Aguilar or Eric Hosmer in 12-team keep forever?

Paul Sporer: Oh god… :vomits everywhere:…. I guess I’ll hold Aguilar

Eric: How long before we can trust the “new and improved” Tom Beckham?

Paul Sporer: He’s already 80% at ESPN, so ppl are at least trusting him in the short-term. Ride it out and let’s see where it goes

Dean: Fried or J.A. Happ ROS?

Paul Sporer: Happ for me

Timmy: Is omar Narvaez a top 3 catcher going forward?

Paul Sporer: Probably not that high, but he’s a must in all leagues right now

Not Archie Bradley: Why do the DBacks keep winning? Keeping our boy Bogman away from his precious Carl’s Jr.

Paul Sporer: They’re fighting to keep him healthy!

Jillian: In a deep dynasty league (20 teams), what would it take to pry Vlad Jr. from your team where you can keep him for up to 10 years?

Paul Sporer: An absurd offer, tbh

Guest: who Do you prefer going forward hunter dozier or Yandy Diaz

Paul Sporer: Dozier

Nathan: Would you rather roster Adam Frazier or Jonathan Villar ROS in roto with OPS?

Paul Sporer: Villar, gimme that speed!

Mauer: Is it time to move on from Votto?  I know it’s still April, but after his subpar 2018 season, this seems like a decline phase.  His K%/BB% numbers this year don’t look good for him.  In an OBP league, would you deal him for guys like Abreu, Donaldson, Brantley?

Paul Sporer: I could see dealing him for someone from that group

Jim: Are you selling high on Caleb Smith?  I moved him and Bieber for Wheeler but now kinda regret it.

Paul Sporer: I love Wheeler, but I’m not sure I’d have done that

Bob Villar: Max Muncy for Greinke in an OBP/QS league. Which side?

Paul Sporer: Seems perfectly fair

Caleb smith: Am I good and do I continue to produce?

Fresh Hair cuz Newcomb: Caleb smith top 20 SP

Paul Sporer: OK, we’re wrapping up the Caleb Smith talk here. Let’s all breathe a little bit. He’s not top 20. He’s a nice K guy and should continue to produce, but he’s also on a terrible team and a lack of wins will impact his overall value. I’m inclined to just ride it out, unless I can truly sell high

A-A-Ron: Vlad Jr.: .420/65/200 this year?

Paul Sporer: By the All-Star break

Saves: Bargain bin closer preference: Swarzak or Romo?

Paul Sporer: Swarzak, I guess

Greg: Dylan Cease get a shot early this year?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think at some point they’ll give him a look if he continues to handle Triple-A

Matt: Obviously, each owner has specific needs, but I was declined in a Tim Beckham for Yandy Diaz swap. In a vacuum, is that fair value.

Paul Sporer: Ya it’s perfectly fair, but that person may just prefer Diaz

Nick: What do you think about Corbin Burnes after the demotion? Still rosterable this year?

Paul Sporer: In NL Only or a deep mixer with biiiiig reserves

Steve-O: I’m happy you found love….  but, like, we get it, you have a girlfriend.

Paul Sporer: Following is a choice, fella

SparkyMcguffey: Thames. Will he get his job back from Jesus?

Paul Sporer: He damn well may do what Aguilar did to him last year

Paulie: Goldschmidt or Tatis/Moncada in keep forever dynasty? Is Tatis going to be a superstar?

Paul Sporer: Wait, both Tatis & Moncada?? I’d take them

abelwingnut: reddick or pinder?

Paul Sporer: League type would matter, but I love Pinder

Matt: Is there any irony that Thame’s nickname in Korea was God, and he was unseated by Jesus, only to potentially reclaim his throne?

Paul Sporer: lololol

Matt: So happy you have a job….but, like, we get it, you like fantasy baseball.

Paul Sporer: lololol

Al: Do you let Tim’s into your Beat Paul Sporer leagues just so you can say, I don’t think so Tim! (That’s a 90s joke for you youngins)

Paul Sporer: I’d have to make sure they’re really bad and beatable

trashcan sinatra: is this just a slow start for Muncy or was last year an anomaly?

Paul Sporer: I really believed in his 2018, so I’m holding tight a bit

Boof: McNeil or Polanco ROS?

Paul Sporer: Assuming it’s Jorge, I’ll lean toward him, but both him

Chucky : Matt Chapman, the AL version of Arenado?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’d say so. The easiest comp may feel lazy, but it sure looks like Oakland’s next Josh Donaldson here

Nolan: Chuck Nazty:  hold or sell for 90 cents on the dollar?

Paul Sporer: I could take 90 cents, which would be what, like… LoCain or Suarez or something like that?

Camargoat: Eickhoff is a statcast darling so far this year – do you see him being mixed league relevant in a 14 teamer?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s 14-team relevant with a rotation spot

bang bang whats the hang: Why is no one talking about Christian Walker? Former hype, few years experience, hitting balls HARD, swinging at less pitches (even in the zone.) So he’s made an adjustment, waiting for a good pitch and then smashing it. I feel like I haven’t seen ANY love yet. Is everyone really scared of that BABIP

Paul Sporer: I think some shallower mixed leagues need to get on board, but he’s gaining steam. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-10-assessing-the-early-batter-bre…

Johnny5Alive: I mean I have to cut Flores in an NL only at this point right?  Figured getting out of NY, every day playing time, in the desert, he’d pop 15-20 with a decent average.  Woof. 🙁

Paul Sporer: Was similarly hyped. Could see going back to him down the line, but ya I’m cutting him everywhere

Eric: Sale turn it around?

Paul Sporer: I tend to think so, yes

Justin: Is Walker Buehler fine? Doesn’t seem to have “it” this year? Velocity seems fine, but K rate has dropped. Maybe just small sample size?

Paul Sporer: I’m sitting tight. I’d check in to see if there’s any panic around him. 54% LOB rate won’t maintain

AF: Who gets first shot at Angels closer gig –  Buttrey or Robles?

Paul Sporer: Buttrey for me

Edwin: Holding out hope for Hunter Renfroe – do I just stick a fork in it? 5×5 standard 12 teamer

Paul Sporer: He’s pretty fringe in 12-teamer without a guaranteed role

High 5 Ghost: Thanks for the chat Paul! Long story short…I have McNeil as my 3B in a 12 team lg that counts walks. Andujar, Chavis, R Nunez, and Franco are all sitting there on the wire…in what order should I prioritize these guys…?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I’d probably go Nunez, Chavis, Andujar, Franco, McNeil. McNeil is kinda empty average for a 12-teamer and doesn’t really get a boost w/the BBs.

Shawn: Still holding Syndergaard? Seems to be less than the sum of his parts, even dating back to last year

Paul Sporer: Well ya, I can’t get rid of him, of course. I’m not selling low, either

Kyle: Do you think Muncy can hit his way out of this stupid platoon with David Freese?

Paul Sporer: Probably not, unfortunately, but I do think he’ll improve from this level

MLEW: Is Trevor Bauer now the AL CY Young favorite?

Paul Sporer: Him, Snell, and the two Astros are the faves. Matt Boyd creepin 🙂 🙂 🙂

Sean: Thoughts Dansby Swanson’s start and prospects for ROS?

Paul Sporer: Please tweet https://twitter.com/JustinMasonFWFB with that question. He LOOVVVEESS Dansby and is usually down for a long convo about him. Tell him I sent ya, in fact that’s an invite to everyone to just see how Justin feels about Dansby by tweeting him

Paul Sporer: As for how I feel, there’s a lot of support for what Swanson has done so I think we have to ride it out. More and more, I’m worrying less about ROS and just playing for the here & now (4-6 weeks at a time), so let’s roll with Swanson right now

Daniel Krocka: When is Pivetta going to learn a cutter or 2SFB. Like a fastball that actually moves

Paul Sporer: Hopefully soon. The overwhelming hype on him saved me from being over-exposed as I no doubt liked him coming into the season. Just wasn’t trying to take him as high as many others

Guest: Is the Dentist breakout finally here?

Paul Sporer: Not sure I’d say it’s a full on breakout yet, but I like that he’s playing & running

NL-only, 10-team: Would you trade Vince Velasquez (I have) for Franmil Reyes?

Paul Sporer: Ya that trade works

Greengrass: Grandal or Contreras is OBP league?  I have both but need to move one for pitching

Paul Sporer: Whoever brings back more in the market

Garrett Hampson: Should I be dropped, or will I make you regret it in the second half?

Paul Sporer: So this is one of those where both answers can be yes. He’s certainly cuttable in shallower leagues but he could also burn those who cut him. You just have to assess how much longer you can hold him on your particularly team

Diamond Dy-nasty : Love your DD roster upgrade predictions – when is the next one coming?

Paul Sporer: Next week!

Jim Leyland Palmer: Paul, when are we gonna get Tigers Ty Cobb in the Show? Would you recommend the A’s conquest one while we wait? The D seems brutal

Paul Sporer: Not sure, but he’s comin. BTW, did you see what they just added? They already have Vlad Jr. and he’s absolute HEAT

Panik at the Disco: How low are you selling Kris Bryant? Top 20 name, 50, 100 …?

Paul Sporer: Top 50-60

Anonymous: Who is next ShiNTS now that vlad is up?

Paul Sporer: Senzel? Luzardo? Whitley?

Fred Rick: What could Verdugo do with regular PT?  His only downside was supposedly power

Paul Sporer: Like a poor man’s Brantley-type offensively?

Scott TINSTAAPP: Tapia available in my 15 team NFBC mixed.  Do you think he goes for over $100 in FAAB this weekend?

Paul Sporer: That’d really surprise me if he went THAT high

Meltor: Has Luke Weaver turned the corner?

Big Boy: Thoughts on Luke Weaver moving forward?

Paul Sporer: Humidor, babyyy!! Kidding, it’s not just a humidor, but he was a nice post-hype pick this year after being overrated last year. I believe him being an all formats option, but the Ks will likely come down a bit

Oliver: Whats up with Laser Ramon? Time to move on from him for a guy like AGordon?

Paul Sporer: I love Laureano, but in a shallower league, I understand churning that OF spot. Keep him on the watchlist in case it heats up

Jager: Cut zucchini or asparagus in a ten team keep forever vegetable league?

Paul Sporer: Gus for sure

Larry: Keep two of the following: Puig, Votto, Franco, Dahl

Paul Sporer: Votto/Dahl without knowing any other context

Stormy: My Whitley for Pete Alonso in 20 team keep forever league?

Paul Sporer: That checks out

Bman: Is Oscar Mercado a must-add in 12 teamers if he gets called up? Has a 176 wRC+ in AAA this year. Also, I can’t believe you’re gonna name AL Cy young favorites and ignore the man leading ESPN’s predictor, Marco Gonzales LOL

Paul Sporer: LOLOL maaaah bad, sorry Marco! I think Mercado has some 12-team appeal upon arrival depending on your situation. He’s one those who probably belongs on a roster, but not necessarily YOUR roster if your OF is set

Tim: What do I make of Quintana. I’ve had him for years and was about to cut bait, but he seems to have remembered how to pitch. Is he a sell high, or can he more or less keep this up?

Paul Sporer: Looking a lot like the vintage form right now. I doubt you can get a ton selling, so just ride it out

Phil Plantier: Fried or Soroka?

Paul Sporer: Soroka

Miggy: Will I hit a home run before June? Does it matter?

Paul Sporer: I hope so 🙁

Batman: How soon do you think Senzel will be up?

Paul Sporer: Seems like at least a couple weeks, but these things can be so impossible to guess bc as soon as you think something, an injury pops up and the guy is up 2 days later

Roadhog: Haniger for Taillon and Kepler in a 12 team 5×5 roto?

Paul Sporer: Gimme the duo

Freduardo Freeman: Is Raimel Tapia going to get enough atbats to be worth a roster spot?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league type

We’re Going Streaming: Should I be looking to get rid of Devers or is it too soon?

Paul Sporer: I’m still holding in most formats

Kiermaier’s Dashing Good Looks: Did you rip your three headliner packs yet? So glad I got my silvers!

Paul Sporer: I did, got nada

Prospects: Who do you think posts a better season between Kieboom and Hiura?

Paul Sporer: Think Kieboom gets more time

ShiNTS?: What is ShiNTS?

Paul Sporer: Shiny New Toy Syndrome

Paul Sporer: OK y’all I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight (after seeing a certain hyped movie) and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!