Paul Gold Standard

Entering the season, Mike Trout was the consensus first overall pick. Paul Goldschmidt was part of an elite crew under consideration for the second selection. There was some wariness over the hand injury that ended his 2014 season, but it turns out there was no cause for concern. He posted a monstrous 103/33/110/21/.321 roto-season. According to our (not-so) esoteric maths, he was the most valuable first baseman at a hair under $37.

Other first basemen matched the Gold Standard in part, but none kept pace with his five category domination. Chris Davis had similar run production and 14 more home runs. But he stole just two bases with a .262 average. Anthony Rizzo was the slightly poorer man’s Goldschmidt with fantastic but lesser numbers across the board. Joey Votto (aside from Miguel Cabrera) is the only guy to come close on batting average.

The 2015 Goldschmidt had much in common with past iterations. His 21 steals were a career best, but he totaled 18 and 15 in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The speed wasn’t a surprise. His strikeout rate remained between 20 and 23 percent while he walk rate jumped to a career best 17 percent.

By hard hit rate, he was tied fifth wth Bryce Harper. There are problems with hard hit rate – namely that most of the data wasn’t successfully captured. However, it still helps to explain his lofty .382 BABIP. High BABIPs are always a red flag. Steamer thinks he’ll regress to .339 next season. I’ll project him to match his career .355 BABIP.

In the past, Goldschmidt was a slight pull hitter. This time around, he worked up the middle of the field with 30 percent pulled, 40 percent to center, and 30 percent to the opposite field. That balance also helps BABIP, especially since he can hit with authority to all fields. Teams are unable to shift against him, nor can pitchers exploit one side of the plate. Or maybe that’s not true.

His spray chart is informative. When power hitters are at the top of their game, they’ll often show a similar scatter of home runs. He’ll lose some of those opposite field home runs as he ages, but that isn’t yet a concern for the 28-year-old.

Note the distribution of batted balls in the infield. I said he was balanced but he sure hits a lot of grounders to the pull side. Maybe the infield can shade left. The outfield portion of the chart shows a clear opposite field tendency. Outfielders could shift to right.

Of course, shifts must remain subtle against Goldschmidt. A hitter of his caliber can adjust. If the infield loaded three fielders on the left, he could spray a single to right or sit on an inside pitch to pull deep and gone.

For all this talk of spray hitting, Goldschmidt generates his power via the inside and upper quadrants of the strike zone. If, as a pitcher, you want to keep him in the ball park, pitch low and away. His batting averages by region are even more telling.

While he remains one of the princes of fantasy, a few breakout seasons may conspire to push him down the draft board. Trout, Harper, and Clayton Kershaw are all candidates for the first overall pick leaving Goldy as fourth best. Because he is a first baseman, I could see owners taking Josh Donaldson ahead of him too. A.J. Pollock and Manny Machado may also sneak into the top five due to excellent five category value.

Steamer projects regression. An 83/27/82/15/.290 line would be viewed as a big disappointment. However, so long as he’s healthy, he should easily outperform those figures. Can you imagine landing Goldschmidt with a sixth overall pick?