Overseas Player Comps: Ponce, Murakami, Imai, and Others
Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
To get an idea of a player’s production when moving from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB) and Korea Baseball Organization (KBO), I compiled a list of players who made the move and their MLB results. With the results, I compiled a list of comps to get a range of possible outcomes. We have several players coming over for their debut, but also returning arm trying to make an impact after 55 uneventful innings 2020-21.
Here they are:
Note: If I missed anyone to find the comps for, let me know. I’ll add them later to this article or possibly to Mining the News.
KBO: Hitters
| Name | Year | Age | G | PA | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | K% | BB% | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyeseong Kim 김혜성 | 2025 | 26 | 71 | 170 | 3 | .280 | .314 | .385 | .699 | 31% | 4% | .106 |
| Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 | 2021 | 25 | 117 | 298 | 8 | .202 | .270 | .352 | .622 | 24% | 7% | .150 |
| James Adduci | 2017 | 32 | 29 | 93 | 1 | .241 | .323 | .398 | .720 | 29% | 11% | .157 |
| Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 | 2024 | 25 | 37 | 158 | 2 | .262 | .310 | .331 | .641 | 8% | 6% | .069 |
| Jae-Gyun Hwang 황재균 | 2017 | 29 | 18 | 57 | 1 | .154 | .228 | .231 | .459 | 26% | 9% | .077 |
| Median | 26.0 | 37 | 158 | 2 | .241 | .310 | .352 | .641 | 26% | 7% | .106 | |
| Average | 27.4 | 54 | 155 | 3 | .228 | .289 | .339 | .628 | 24% | 7% | .112 |
He’ll need a full-time job to be worth a late-round pick. I’m a pass for now.
KBO: Pitchers
Ponce would be the best pitcher ever to come from the KBO to MLB. It’s not even close. Here are his ignorable comps.
| Name | Season | IP | G | GS | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde 페디 | 2024 | 177 | 31 | 31 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 1.0 | 42% | 3.30 | 1.16 |
| Kyle Hart 하트 | 2025 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 1.9 | 32% | 5.86 | 1.19 |
| Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 | 2020 | 45 | 12 | 10 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 1.2 | 27% | 5.16 | 1.28 |
| Hector Noesí 헥터 | 2019 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 19.4% | 11.3% | 2.3 | 30% | 8.46 | 1.59 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현 | 2020 | 39 | 8 | 7 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 0.7 | 50% | 1.62 | 1.03 |
| Brooks Raley 레일리 | 2020 | 20 | 21 | 0 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 1.4 | 39% | 4.95 | 0.95 |
| Drew Rucinski 루친스키 | 2023 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 6.3% | 14.7% | 2.5 | 45% | 9.00 | 2.28 |
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | 2019 | 183 | 32 | 32 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 1.4 | 42% | 4.42 | 1.31 |
| Dietrich Enns 엔스 | 2025 | 46 | 24 | 3 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 1.2 | 40% | 4.08 | 1.40 |
| Hyeon-Jong Yang 양현종 | 2021 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 15.6% | 10.0% | 2.3 | 42% | 5.60 | 1.64 |
| Average | 63 | 18 | 10 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 1.6 | 39% | 5.24 | 1.38 | |
| Median | 41 | 16 | 5 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 1.4 | 41% | 5.06 | 1.30 |
Well, maybe not all of them. A person might want to focus on Fedde. In the same number of innings, Ponce’s strikeout rate was 7% points higher in Korea. Ponce’s fastball averaged 95 mph in Korea. Normally, I prefer comps over projections to get a range of outcomes, but in this instance, his projection might be the best method to value him. Or just go with Fedde’s results
NBP: Hitters
| Name | Year | Age | G | PA | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | K% | BB% | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenji Johjima | 2006 | 30 | 144 | 542 | 18 | .291 | .332 | .451 | .783 | 8% | 4% | .160 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 2023 | 29 | 140 | 580 | 15 | .289 | .338 | .445 | .783 | 14% | 6% | .156 |
| Kosuke Fukudome | 2008 | 31 | 150 | 590 | 10 | .257 | .359 | .379 | .738 | 18% | 14% | .122 |
| Tadahito Iguchi | 2005 | 30 | 135 | 582 | 15 | .278 | .342 | .438 | .780 | 20% | 8% | .160 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 2001 | 27 | 157 | 738 | 8 | .350 | .381 | .457 | .838 | 7% | 4% | .107 |
| Dan Johnson | 2010 | 30 | 40 | 140 | 7 | .198 | .343 | .414 | .757 | 19% | 18% | .216 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 2022 | 27 | 111 | 446 | 14 | .262 | .336 | .433 | .770 | 25% | 9% | .171 |
| Kevin Mench | 2010 | 32 | 27 | 29 | 0 | .111 | .172 | .111 | .284 | 21% | 7% | .000 |
| Kaz Matsui | 2004 | 28 | 114 | 509 | 7 | .272 | .331 | .396 | .727 | 19% | 8% | .124 |
| Casey McGehee | 2014 | 31 | 160 | 691 | 4 | .287 | .355 | .357 | .712 | 15% | 10% | .070 |
| Median | 30 | 138 | 561 | 9 | .275 | .340 | .424 | .763 | 18% | 8% | .140 | |
| Average | 30 | 118 | 485 | 10 | .259 | .329 | .388 | .717 | 17% | 9% | .129 |
Not the most inspiring list of names outside a couple of standouts. Maybe take a chance in the later rounds of a draft-and-hold.
| Result | Year | Age | G | PA | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | K% | BB% | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 2018 | 23 | 104 | 367 | 22 | .285 | .361 | .564 | .925 | 28% | 10% | .279 |
| Matt Clark | 2014 | 27 | 16 | 31 | 3 | .185 | .226 | .519 | .744 | 26% | 6% | .334 |
| Cory Spangenberg | 2022 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0% | 0% | .000 |
| Yoshi Tsutsugo | 2020 | 28 | 51 | 185 | 8 | .197 | .314 | .395 | .708 | 27% | 14% | .197 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 2022 | 27 | 111 | 446 | 14 | .262 | .336 | .433 | .770 | 25% | 9% | .171 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 2007 | 28 | 123 | 559 | 7 | .285 | .359 | .411 | .770 | 20% | 10% | .126 |
| Kosuke Fukudome | 2008 | 31 | 150 | 590 | 10 | .257 | .359 | .379 | .738 | 18% | 14% | .122 |
| Dan Johnson | 2010 | 30 | 40 | 140 | 7 | .198 | .343 | .414 | .757 | 19% | 18% | .216 |
| Kaz Matsui | 2004 | 28 | 114 | 509 | 7 | .272 | .331 | .396 | .727 | 19% | 8% | .124 |
| Casey McGehee | 2014 | 31 | 160 | 691 | 4 | .287 | .355 | .357 | .712 | 15% | 10% | .070 |
| Median | 28 | 108 | 407 | 7 | .259 | .340 | .404 | .741 | 20% | 10% | .149 | |
| Average | 28 | 87 | 352 | 8 | .223 | .298 | .387 | .685 | 20% | 10% | .164 |
A few more interesting names, but as a whole, the median and average results are disappointing, especially the lack of home runs. I’ll be interested to see how projections value him.
NPB Pitchers
Note: All three of these starters came in as comps to each other. I rank them Tatsuya Imai, Hiroto Saiki, and Takahiro Norimoto with Imai’s potential strikeout rate (8.5 K/9) being the difference over Saiki (7.3 K/9).
| Name | Season | Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | SIERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenta Maeda | 2016 | 28 | 175 | 9.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 3.48 | 3.69 | 1.14 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 2014 | 25 | 136 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.77 | 2.67 | 1.06 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 2012 | 31 | 125 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 3.16 | 3.85 | 1.28 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 2019 | 28 | 161 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 5.46 | 5.17 | 1.52 |
| Miles Mikolas | 2018 | 29 | 200 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.83 | 3.93 | 1.07 |
| Yu Darvish | 2012 | 25 | 191 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 3.90 | 3.62 | 1.28 |
| Anthony Bass | 2017 | 29 | 5 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 14.29 | 5.35 | 2.47 |
| Ryota Igarashi | 2010 | 31 | 30 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 7.12 | 4.50 | 1.55 |
| Colby Lewis | 2010 | 30 | 201 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 3.72 | 3.56 | 1.19 |
| Kenshin Kawakami | 2009 | 34 | 156 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 3.86 | 4.60 | 1.34 |
| Median | 29 | 159 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 3.79 | 3.89 | 1.28 | |
| Average | 29 | 138 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5.06 | 4.09 | 1.39 |
That’s a nice, solid list of comps with a couple of blowups. Draftable for sure.
| Name | Season | Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | SIERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | 2018 | 29 | 200 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.83 | 3.93 | 1.07 |
| Kenta Maeda | 2016 | 28 | 175 | 9.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 3.48 | 3.69 | 1.14 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 2019 | 28 | 161 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 5.46 | 5.17 | 1.52 |
| Yu Darvish | 2012 | 25 | 191 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 3.90 | 3.62 | 1.28 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 2014 | 25 | 136 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.77 | 2.67 | 1.06 |
| Colby Lewis | 2010 | 30 | 201 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 3.72 | 3.56 | 1.19 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 2012 | 31 | 125 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 3.16 | 3.85 | 1.28 |
| Kyuji Fujikawa | 2013 | 32 | 12 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.25 | 2.15 | 1.08 |
| Chris Martin | 2018 | 32 | 41 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4.54 | 3.37 | 1.22 |
| Median | 29 | 161 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 3.72 | 3.62 | 1.19 | |
| Average | 29 | 141 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 3.88 | 3.56 | 1.20 |
Another solid list with a few more strikeouts than Saiki, while missing a few of the blowups (Bass and Igarashi).
| Name | Season | Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | SIERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshihisa Hirano | 2018 | 34 | 66 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 2.44 | 3.76 | 1.09 |
| Ryota Igarashi | 2010 | 31 | 30 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 7.12 | 4.50 | 1.55 |
| Anthony Bass | 2017 | 29 | 5 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 14.29 | 5.35 | 2.47 |
| Scott McGough | 2010 | 30 | 201 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 3.72 | 3.56 | 1.19 |
| Chris Martin | 2018 | 32 | 41 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4.54 | 3.37 | 1.22 |
| Yoshinori Tateyama | 2011 | 35 | 44 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 4.50 | 2.86 | 1.09 |
| Kyuji Fujikawa | 2013 | 32 | 12 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.25 | 2.15 | 1.08 |
| Kenshin Kawakami | 2009 | 34 | 156 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 3.86 | 4.60 | 1.34 |
| Hisanori Takahashi | 2010 | 35 | 122 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 3.61 | 3.59 | 1.30 |
| Shota Imanaga | 2009 | 40 | 27 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 2.96 | 4.27 | 1.35 |
| Median | 33 | 43 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4.18 | 3.68 | 1.26 | |
| Average | 33 | 70 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 5.23 | 3.80 | 1.37 |
A Hail Mary Shota Imanaga comp is not going to persuade me to take a chance on Norimoto. A solid chance he ends up in a bullpen.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Thanks Jeff. This is very reasonable and helpful.
It appears that Foster Griffin is returning to MLB after 3 seasons in NPB.
I just read that, I’ll add his numbers to a Mining the News (not the one coming out today)