Outfield ADP Market Report: 12/27/2025

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

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Top 100 Players Falling

Riley Greene (-12.17) – It’s a bit surprising to see Greene falling in drafts after a season in which he broke out in a huge way with 36 home runs and 111 RBIs. It is likely due to a second half slump where he hit .218 with 12 home runs after a massive first half. He will likely regress some, but probably not as much as the projections would like to think. His barrel rate was in the 95th percentile and his xSLG was in the 90th. He is an aggressive hitter that will strike out at a 30% rate, but he will also run hot streaks like he did in the first half as well as cold streaks like he did in the second half. He is still a 30 homer threat hitting in the middle of a very good lineup. 

Oneil Cruz (-23.83) – Cruz is another surprising faller that is likely dropping after an atrocious second half where he hit just .177 with four home runs and stealing nine bases. This is the risk of a hitter like Cruz who struggles with consistent contact. The upside is immense as his 20/38 season shows, but there will be massive cold streaks that can crush your batting average. 

Seiya Suzuki (-12.09) – Again, it’s surprising to see Suzuki dropping in early drafts. He is coming off of a career year where he finally has been able to stay healthy and on the field. The talent has never really been in question with a 95 percentile barrel rate, a 82 percentile hard hit rate and a 94 percentile launch angle sweet spot percentage. Suzuki did struggle in the second half, but the underlying skills were still strong. 

Top 200 Players Rising

Jo Adell (+14.33) – Adell is rising after a breakout season in which he hit 37 home runs and stole five bases for the Angels.  Adell has always had tremendous power, but struggled with consistent contact. However, over the last three seasons he has made great gains in his hit tool, improving his Z-Contact from 74% in 2022 to 85% in 2025. He does still swing outside the zone too much and the swinging strike rate is high, so the average will never be an asset, but the power will be a massive asset in fantasy. 

Ceddanne Rafaela (+16.67) – See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Alec Burleson (+16.68) – See the article in this series on first baseman. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Teoscar Hernandez (-13.71) – Hernandez is dropping after a disappointing season in which he missed almost 30 games with injury. In spite of the missed time, he was still able to hit 25 home runs and steal five bases while knocking in 89 RBI. He should bounce back if healthy and hitting in the middle of the Dodgers lineup offers a lot of upside in this ADP, especially if it keeps dropping. 

Chandler Simpson (-19.07) – Simpson is likely dropping after the additions to the outfield that the Rays made this offseason in Cedric Mullins, Jake Fraley and Jacob Melton which could complicate his playing time. Simpson is a flawed fantasy player, having elite speed and a good hit tool, but not a ton else because of his lack of power. He has the ability to steal 50+ bases and that makes him valuable, but there is a risk that he gets sent back down to the minors if the Rays don’t value that as much as fantasy managers do. That being said, I expect that the Rays will not enter the season with the team as currently constructed and could move someone like Josh Lowe to solidify Simpson’s playing time so buying on the low isn’t a bad gamble right now. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ramon Laureano (+20.85) – Lauerano is on the rise after posting his best season since 2019. With the Padres not making major moves, Laureano is likely going to be an everyday player and right now Roster Resource has him hitting fourth in the lineup. He may take a step back in power a bit, but there is speed and enough pop to matter along with a good enough hit tool to offer five category production outside the top 200. 

Jose Caballero (+24.09) – See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Colton Cowser (+15.54) – It’s a bit strange to see Cowser rising. He missed most of the first two months of the season with an injury and when he returned he struggled at the plate, hitting .199/.272/.389 with 15 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 342 plate appearances. Cowser has interesting underlying skills, however. He has a 14% barrel rate along with a good eye at the plate. However, he struggles with consistent zone contact which will keep the batting average low. His greatest skill is his defense though. He is an elite defender which will keep him on the field even when he struggles offensively. There is some risk here, but some upside if he can improve the hit tool. 

Ryan O’Hearn (+18.96) – See the article in this series on first baseman. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Mike Trout (-14.27) – Oh how the mighty have fallen. Trout was once the best player in fantasy so it is crazy to see him dropping and outside the top 200 picks. He did play in 130 games which is the most he has played in since 2019, but even with that, the skills have started to decline in his mid-30s. He still crushes the ball and has an elite eye, but the Z-Contact is no longer above league average. If he can stay on the field, there could be massive value, but at this point, it is hard to take the gamble that Trout can stay healthy. 

Mikey Moniak (-19.95) – Moniak is dropping in spite of having a career year in Colorado. He hit 24 home runs and stole nine bases while hitting .270/.306/.518. Moniak does not have a good approach but he did make strides in his zone contact which helps back up the gain in average. He also gets help in Colorado with the BABIP. Moniak will play regularly at the top of the Rockies lineup and if he continues to drop, he could be a pretty good bargain. 

Dylan Beavers (-16.31) – Beavers is dropping in drafts after the trade for Taylor Ward and the signing of Pete Alonso which could cut into Beavers’ path to playing time. Right now, he is projected to be on the strong side of a platoon, but it seems clear that his best shot at full time playing time might be if he is part of a trade to another organization. The problem is that the Orioles have been reluctant to move a number of their top prospects, but maybe now is the time after a disastrous year in Baltimore.  

Others of Note

Cedric Mullins (+21.98) – Mullins is rising after signing a deal to play for the Rays. Mullins is coming off of a season where he hit 17 home runs and stole 22 bases, but the triple slash was .216/.299/.391. Mullins will play every day because of his defense, but the underlying contact and power skills have been eroding over the last few years and there is no guarantee they will not crater.

Cam Smith (-24.51) – Smith is dropping after the Astros general manager stated that he could start the year in AAA. Right now, he is projected to be on the short side of a platoon with Jesus Sanchez, but the Astros may decide the 23-year-old could use full time playing time in AAA for more seasoning. Smith did show some promise, but he needs to turn the raw power in to game power before he has a breakout. 

Justin Crawford (+70.63) – Crawford is rising after the Phillies have said they expect him to be a part of the regular outfield in 2026. Crawford doesn’t have much power, but he has a ton of speed and a good hit tool. There are going to be questions given the lack of power whether he will be able to make it work at the plate in the Majors or if big league pitchers will try and knock the bat out of his hand. Clearly the Phillies believe in him and he is a good enough defender that he should stay in the lineup even if he struggles out of the gate.