Out of Nowhere: 2017 Breakout Candidates at First Base

In 2015, Wil Myers, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Napoli, Carlos Santana, and Chris Carter were pretty bad. HanRam and Santana were $6 players. Napoli, Myers, and Carter combined for about negative $14. This season, the quintet teamed up to provide $87 of production – a near $90 increase in value. And that’s ignoring Adam Duvall, Mark Trumbo, and Daniel Murphy – all of whom also experienced big gains. It was a good year for snagging a cheap first baseman.

With 2016 in the books, let’s look ahead at some 2017 breakout candidates.

It’s often instructive to look at the type of player who experienced a breakout. With the possible exception of Myers and Duvall, the 2016 crop were all veterans. And depending on how you define veteran, you could still include Myers and Duvall. Interestingly, five of the eight were outfield eligible. You probably drafted and used Murphy as a second baseman.

Some of the other top first basemen like Kris Bryant, Todd Frazier, Kendrys Morales, Brad Miller, and Hernan Perez had valuable multi-position eligibility. At least in 2016, the place to look for first base bargains was at other positions. This is a useful reminder. As an industry, we often focus too much attention on young, unestablished players. Veterans can surprise us too.

Possible Converts

So, how does one gain first base eligibility? Typically, they offer shaky defense at another position and/or a shinier player pushes them to a new home. Players who could fall into this profile include:

I’m sure I’m missing a few names. We can throw a bunch of these away as true breakout candidates. Cruz, Bautstia, Cargo, Davis, Piscotty, Turner, Sano, and Lamb will be in high demand. The same is probably true of Tomas. His combination of good fantasy numbers and negative WAR are, uh, disconcerting. Will the new Arizona leadership continue to play him? Additionally, how are Lamb and Tomas supposed to squeeze first base eligibility with Paul Goldschmidt on the roster.

A few free agents could wind up at first base, namely Walker, Turner, Holliday, and Rasmus. Bruce probably should be a free agent, but it sounds like the Mets will double down on their bad bet. Rasmus probably has too much value as an outfielder to play first base, but any kind of utility he can offer will help him to hold a job.

I’m not confident Peralta or Parra can really hit enough to produce fantasy value at first base. When they’re on, they’re both fine for their main positions. As a first baseman, they leave much to be desired.

That leaves us with just a few names with breakout potential. A healthy season from Walker could brush against 30 home runs, especially in the right ballpark. Healy is one of my favorite young breakout candidates in the league. Tepid defensive marks at third could force him across the diamond. The Athletics have an embarrassment of third base prospects, although none are as ready as Healy. The transition may come in 2018.

Franco is an interesting post-hype target in Philadelphia. With Tommy Joseph at first base, I doubt Franco will gain first base eligibility. Among the outfielders, the guy to watch is Dickerson. The Rays somehow milked positive defensive numbers out of him in left field so I doubt they’re in a rush to move him to the infield. Miller will get first crack at the cold corner.

It doesn’t look like there’s much value to be found among predictable conversion candidates.

Veteran Recoveries

Several long standing veterans flopped in 2016, most notably Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Zimmerman. AGon was relatively decent while providing less than $10 of value. Zimmerman was a disaster. I doubt anybody would be shocked if there is some dead cat bounce left in either former All Star. Hell, there’s even some hope for Joe Mauer. Not much though.

Less established veterans like Justin Bour, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind, Steve Pearce, Lucas Duda, Wilmer Flores, Kennys Vargas, Byung-ho Park, Brandon Moss, and Matt Adams all have the talent to pull a Napoli (or a Duvall if you prefer). Maybe 2017 is the year 33-year-old Pearce comes to the plate more than 383 times.

I’ll have my eye on New York first basemen. Even if Bruce doesn’t enter the picture, Duda may join the home run bashing. Perhaps Flores finally makes good on those old prospect reports. St. Louis and Minnesota also figure to have first base battles with important fantasy implications.

While I hyped Derek Dietrich over Bour yesterday, a subtle adjustment in his contact profile could lead to a top 15 season with 25 home runs, a solid average, and plenty of run support. Alternatively, he could fully embrace his pull-centric ways and turn into a classic 30 to 40 home run threat.

With the possible exception of Gonzalez, if you asked me to bet on any individual from this section to post a big 2017 campaign, I’d decline. However, it’s very likely that at least one of these guys turns in a $10 or better season.

Younglings

I’ve already mentioned Healy. I’m rather fond of his 2017 outlook. Other young players with breakout potential include Tommy Joseph, Josh Bell, Greg Bird, A.J. Reed, Dan Vogelbach, and Jefry Marte. Rowdy Tellez may receive a late-season look in Toronto too.

For the most part, these names have been on the fantasy radar for a long time. Joseph was rather platoony in 2016, batting just .248/.291/.482 against righties. He lost development time to concussions so he deserves another shot against same-handed pitching. Notably, he maintained his power but struggled with plate discipline.

The Bell hype train could get crowded, but I worry about his playing time. The Pirates have a crowded roster, although a trade of Andrew McCutchen could open a path to regular reps. Bell is expected to train as a super utility man this offseason. Given his defensive reviews at first base and in the outfield, I doubt he can manage second or third base.

Bird is another guy who will probably be overdrafted. If he pops 30 or more home runs in the tiny AL East parks, his owners will look smart. Just don’t ignore the craterous downside. Either let somebody else overpay for the upside or be sure to have a strong backup plan in place.

Reed, Vogelbach, and Marte should actually fly below the radar. Marte’s debut was similar to Joseph’s without the platoon issues. However, he has a trickier path to playing time what with Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron hanging around the roster. Reed was miserable in the majors despite a 30 homer pace in the minors. He may be the next Kila Ka’aihue, but I’ve yet to see a scout completely sour on him. Vogelbach is in a similar spot. He’s conquered Triple-A, but that’s no guarantee of major league success.