Ottoneu Surplus Value Un-Stars

Last week, we celebrated the Ottoneu Surplus Value All-Stars! They’re the guys who are rostered with low salaries but are producing like superstars. This week, I’m back with a look at the Ottoneu Surplus Value Un-Stars — those high-priced stars who have been duds dragging your team down the standings so far this season.

Above are the 20 least valuable hitters this year. It’s populated with guys who are either seriously underperforming, have been injured, or both. It’s also an interesting mix of younger players who are suddenly struggling — Luis Urías, Jose Miranda, and Josh Rojas all fit this bill — and a few older veterans on the downswing of their careers.

The player with the highest average salary above is Jose Altuve. He’s actually been as good as he has been in the past when he’s on the field, but he’s missed so much time due to injury, his surplus value is in the negative. Jazz Chisholm is another guy who has been productive when on the field, but injuries have really ruined his season. Then there are the players who have been both injured and ineffective. Look no further than Giancarlo Stanton, Tim Anderson, and Jesse Winker. These big name players haven’t played enough to amass much value for your team and when they have played, they’ve stunk.

Alejandro Kirk and Jose Miranda are two surprising inclusions on this list. Both had breakout seasons last year but have struggled to follow up that success this year. Kirk’s issues seem to stem from a loss of contact quality; his hard hit and barrel rates are both down significantly and his BABIP has fallen by nearly 50 points. His expected wOBA is slightly higher than the results he’s put together so far, but it’s still significantly down from what he produced last year. Miranda is suffering from the same issues of contact quality. And again, his BABIP is abnormally low and his expected wOBA is higher than his actual results. Still, his expected stats don’t exactly paint a rosy picture and he’ll need to continue working things out in the minor leagues.

Like the list of hitters, this list of pitchers is filled with injured stars or ineffective youngsters. Some injury risk was obviously baked into Jacob deGrom’s average salary, but losing him for all of this season and next is a brutal blow for teams who were rostering him. Tyler Glasnow’s value is an interesting story. He returned from the IL in late-May so he hasn’t had as much time to generate points. But he’s also really struggled with a big home run problem this year which is exacerbated in a format like Ottoneu.

Then there are guys like Alek Manoah and Luis Severino who have so seriously underperformed their relatively high salaries. The former’s return from his whirlwind development program in the Blue Jays farm system looked promising — he allowed just a single run over six innings against the Tigers and didn’t walk a single batter. If he’s figured out his mechanical issues, there’s still plenty of time left in the season to produce some value for teams. Severino’s issues are a little tougher to decipher. Every pitch in his repertoire is producing poorer results this year than in years past despite no significant changes in their physical characteristics. And it’s not like he’s getting unlucky either — opposing batters are simply crushing everything they see from him.