Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 8–14

Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

September 8–14
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SFG (110) @MIN (97) Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson Nabil Crismatt (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH BOS (40) CIN (82) Luis Severino, Luis Morales (vCIN) Morales (vBOS), J.T. Ginn Jeffrey Springs, Mason Barnett
ATL CHC (68) HOU (77) Chris Sale Hurston Waldrep, Spencer Strider Joey Wentz (x2) Bryce Elder
BAL PIT (123) @TOR (46) Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers Tyler Wells, Cade Povich, Dean Kremer Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS @ATH (61) NYY (30) Garrett Crochet (x2) Payton Tolle Dustin May, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello
CHC @ATL (109) TBR (114) Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd Shota Imanaga (x2) Jameson Taillon (?), Colin Rea
CHW TBR (83) @CLE (169) Martín Pérez Yoendrys Gómez (x2), Shane Smith Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin
CIN @SDP (117) @ATH (61) Nick Lodolo (@SDP), Andrew Abbott Hunter Greene, Lodolo (@ATH) Brady Singer Zack Littell
CLE KCR (122) CHW (122) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Parker Messick Slade Cecconi (x2), Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen로건
COL @LAD (72) @SDP (117) Chase Dollander (x2), Germán Márquez (x2), Kyle Freeland, McCade Brown, Tanner Gordon
DET @NYY (41) @MIA (136) Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty, Charlie Morton Casey Mize Sawyer Gipson-Long (x2)
HOU @TOR (46) @ATL (109) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Jason Alexander (x2), Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia
KCR @CLE (169) @PHI (50) Michael Wacha Ryan Bergert (@CLE), Noah Cameron (@CLE), Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen, Bergert (@PHI), Cameron (@PHI)
LAA MIN (92) @SEA (144) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Caden Dana (x2), Kyle Hendricks (x2), Mitch Farris
LAD COL (146) @SFG (110) Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Clayton Kershaw, Emmet Sheehan
MIA WSN (112) DET (95) Sandy Alcantara Janson Junk (?), Eury Pérez (x2), Ryan Weathers (?) Adam Mazur
MIL @TEX (92) STL (136) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Jose Quintana (x2), Quinn Priester
MIN @LAA (120) ARI (97) Joe Ryan, Pablo López Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Zebby Matthews, Bailey Ober
NYM @PHI (50) TEX (93) Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Jonah Tong, Sean Manaea (vTEX) Manaea (@PHI), Brandon Sproat
NYY DET (88) @BOS (53) Max Fried Carlos Rodón, Cam Schlittler Will Warren (x2), Luis Gil
PHI NYM (37) KCR (104) Cristopher Sánchez Ranger Suárez, Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola (x2), Taijuan Walker Walker Buehler (?)
PIT @BAL (93) @WSN (144) Braxton Ashcraft (x2), Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Johan Oviedo, Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP CIN (121) COL (159) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Yu Darvish (vCOL) Darvish (vCIN), Nestor Cortes (x2)
SEA STL (164) LAA (151) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo
SFG ARI (121) LAD (123) Logan Webb (x2) Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander Carson Whisenhunt Carson Seymour
STL @SEA (144) @MIL (72) Michael McGreevy, Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas (x2), Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante
TBR @CHW (107) @CHC (117) Ryan Pepiot, Drew Rasmussen Ian Seymour Adrian Houser (x2), Shane Baz
TEX MIL (47) @NYM (61) Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jacob Latz (x2), Patrick Corbin
TOR HOU (80) BAL (112) Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt
WSN @MIA (136) PIT (110) Cade Cavalli (x2) Brad Lord Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin, Andrew Alvarez





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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