Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 15–21

Credit: James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

September 15–21
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SFG (72) PHI (89) Zac Gallen (x2), Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson Eduardo Rodriguez, Nabil Crismatt
ATH @BOS (60) @PIT (158) Luis Severino, Luis Morales J.T. Ginn, Jeffrey Springs (@PIT) Springs (@BOS), Mason Barnett
ATL @WSN (138) @DET (79) Chris Sale, Hurston Waldrep Spencer Strider (x2) Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz Dane Dunning (?)
BAL @CHW (108) NYY (104) Kyle Bradish (x2), Trevor Rogers Tyler Wells Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS ATH (45) @TBR (55) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito Connelly Early (x2), Brayan Bello, Payton Tolle
CHC @PIT (158) @CIN (63) Cade Horton (x2), Matthew Boyd Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon (x2), Colin Rea
CHW BAL (120) SDP (101) Sean Burke (x2), Shane Smith, Martín Pérez Davis Martin, Yoendrys Gómez
CIN @STL (166) CHC (37) Andrew Abbott (@STL), Hunter Greene Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, Abbott (vCHC) Zack Littell (x2)
CLE @DET (79) @MIN (99) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen로건, Parker Messick, John Means (?), Slade Cecconi
COL MIA (72) LAA (108) Kyle Freeland (x2), McCade Brown, Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela, Germán Márquez
DET CLE (163) ATL (163) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Casey Mize (x2), Charlie Morton Sawyer Gipson-Long
HOU TEX (140) SEA (51) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Cristian Javier Jason Alexander (vTEX) Alexander (vSEA), AJ Blubaugh
KCR SEA (44) TOR (61) Michael Wacha (x2) Stephen Kolek, Michael Lorenzen, Ryan Bergert, Noah Cameron
LAA @MIL (75) @COL (77) José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi Kyle Hendricks (x2), Mitch Farris, Caden Dana
LAD PHI (73) SFG (56) Shohei Ohtani (x2), Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @COL (77) @TEX (151) Sandy Alcantara Eury Pérez (x2), Ryan Weathers, Janson Junk Adam Mazur
MIL LAA (130) @STL (166) Freddy Peralta (x2), Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester
MIN NYY (87) CLE (145) Pablo López, Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober
NYM SDP (133) WSN (119) Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Nolan McLean Sean Manaea, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat
NYY @MIN (99) @BAL (118) Carlos Rodón (x2), Max Fried Cam Schlittler (x2), Will Warren Luis Gil
PHI @LAD (85) @ARI (115) Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola Walker Buehler
PIT CHC (74) ATH (62) Paul Skenes (x2) Mitch Keller Johan Oviedo, Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows
SDP @NYM (71) @CHW (108) Nick Pivetta Michael King (x2), Dylan Cease Yu Darvish Randy Vásquez
SEA @KCR (162) @HOU (126) Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryan Woo, George Kirby Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo
SFG @ARI (115) @LAD (85) Logan Webb Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray Carson Whisenhunt (x2), Carson Seymour (x2)
STL CIN (142) MIL (75) Sonny Gray Michael McGreevy Matthew Liberatore (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR TOR (33) BOS (50) Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot (x2) Ian Seymour (x2), Shane Baz, Adrian Houser
TEX @HOU (126) MIA (96) Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리 Tyler Mahle (?) Patrick Corbin
TOR @TBR (55) @KCR (162) Kevin Gausman (x2), Shane Bieber José Berríos (x2), Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer
WSN ATL (147) @NYM (71) MacKenzie Gore, Brad Lord Cade Cavalli Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin, Andrew Alvarez





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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