Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 11–17
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.
A few general schedule notes first:
- The Braves have a double-header scheduled for Monday which could jumble up their rotation if they decide to call up a spot starter for one of those games. Kyle Wright is also on the mend and could be activated from the IL next week. Keep an eye on the listed probables because the Phillies and Marlins present matchups on opposite ends of the spectrum.
- It looks like the Blue Jays are the only team to have a couple of tough matchups next week when they host the Rangers and Red Sox. Every other team has a mix of matchups that don’t present any easy decisions.
Notable two-start pitchers:
- Framber Valdez
- Brandon Woodruff
- Freddy Peralta
- Tyler Glasnow
- Sonny Gray
- Joe Ryan
- José Quintana
- Logan Gilbert
- Max Scherzer
- Dylan Cease
Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.