Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 1–7

Credit: Mark Hoffman-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

September 1–7
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI TEX (93) BOS (114) Ryne Nelson (x2), Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt Eduardo Rodriguez Nabil Crismatt
ATH @STL (146) @LAA (125) Luis Morales (x2) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, J.T. Ginn Osvaldo Bido
ATL @CHC (151) SEA (75) Spencer Strider, Chris Sale Joey Wentz, Hurston Waldrep Cal Quantrill, Bryce Elder
BAL @SDP (123) LAD (109) Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers Tyler Wells (?), Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS CLE (154) @ARI (91) Garrett Crochet Brayan Bello (x2), Payton Tolle, Lucas Giolito Dustin May
CHC ATL (102) WSN (137) Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd Colin Rea (vWSN) Rea (vATL), Javier Assad
CHW @MIN (109) @DET (84) Aaron Civale (x2), Shane Smith, Martín Pérez Davis Martin (x2), Yoendrys Gómez
CIN TOR (26) NYM (21) Hunter Greene (x2), Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott Brady Singer Zack Littell
CLE @BOS (86) @TBR (77) Parker Messick (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건 Slade Cecconi (x2)
COL SFG (68) SDP (84) Chase Dollander, Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez, McCade Brown, Tanner Gordon
DET NYM (72) CHW (131) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Charlie Morton (x2) Casey Mize, Chris Paddack
HOU NYY (41) @TEX (96) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Luis Garcia (?), Jason Alexander, Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti
KCR LAA (123) MIN (123) Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen (x2), Noah Cameron Ryan Bergert, Seth Lugo
LAA @KCR (97) ATH (48) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Caden Dana (?)
LAD @PIT (116) @BAL (123) Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @WSN (148) PHI (91) Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara Ryan Gusto (x2), Adam Mazur
MIL PHI (88) @PIT (116) Jacob Misiorowski (x2), Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester
MIN CHW (113) @KCR (97) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews, Pablo López (?) Bailey Ober (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson, Mick Abel
NYM @DET (84) @CIN (103) Nolan McLean, David Peterson Sean Manaea (x2), Clay Holmes Tylor Megill (?), Kodai Senga
NYY @HOU (151) TOR (47) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil
PHI @MIL (90) @MIA (147) Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker (x2), Aaron Nola
PIT LAD (92) MIL (67) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Mike Burrows (x2), Braxton Ashcraft Johan Oviedo
SDP BAL (151) @COL (79) Dylan Cease (vBAL) Yu Darvish, Nestor Cortes, Nick Pivetta, Cease (@COL) Michael King (?)
SEA @TBR (77) @ATL (82) Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo (x2), Bryce Miller
SFG @COL (79) @STL (146) Logan Webb, Justin Verlander Robbie Ray, Keaton Winn (?) Carson Whisenhunt (x2)
STL ATH (90) SFG (118) Sonny Gray (x2) Michael McGreevy Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante
TBR SEA (47) CLE (140) Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz (vCLE) Baz (vSEA), Adrian Houser, Ian Seymour
TEX @ARI (91) HOU (112) Jacob deGrom Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin (x2)
TOR @CIN (103) @NYY (37) Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Eric Lauer 라우어, Max Scherzer
WSN MIA (123) @CHC (151) MacKenzie Gore (x2), Brad Lord Cade Cavalli, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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