Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 6–12

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• There are a bunch of teams with two off days next week: the Blue Jays, Braves, Nationals, Orioles, Red Sox. These teams may take the extra rest day to reset their rotation so keep an eye on their announced starters to make sure the matchups are where you want them.
• The Rangers and A’s have a scheduled double-header on Wednesday and both teams will need to call up a spot starter. Texas will likely give Jack Leiter his second big league start and it comes against a surprisingly decent Oakland ballclub.
• It’s possible we’ll see the activations of Walker Buehler, Justin Steele, Nick Pivetta, Frankie Montas, Bryan Woo, and Braxton Garrett next week. Those pitching staffs will be in flux as they figure out how to fit those injured pitchers back into the rotation.
• The Blue Jays and Nationals have a tough week ahead. Toronto travels to Philadelphia for a couple of games before hosting the red hot Twins. The Nationals have a two-game Beltway series on tap and then will travel to Boston and the cozy confines of Fenway Park.