Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 5–11

Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 5–11
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI NYM (71) LAD (71) Corbin Burnes (x2), Zac Gallen (x2), Brandon Pfaadt Merrill Kelly 켈리, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH SEA (14) NYY (28) Luis Severino (x2) Jeffrey Springs, Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears Gunnar Hoglund (?)
ATL CIN (46) @PIT (123) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach AJ Smith-Shawver (@PIT) Smith-Shawver (vCIN), Grant Holmes Bryce Elder
BAL @MIN (88) @LAA (137) Cade Povich (x2), Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Kyle Gibson, Brandon Young (?)
BOS TEX (116) @KCR (143) Garrett Crochet Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito (@KCR) Giolito (vTEX), Tanner Houck
CHC SFG (144) @NYM (88) Matthew Boyd (x2), Colin Rea, Shota Imanaga Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon
CHW @KCR (143) MIA (90) Shane Smith (x2) Davis Martin Sean Burke (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Bryse Wilson
CIN @ATL (57) @HOU (116) Hunter Greene Brady Singer (x2), Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez Andrew Abbott (x2)
CLE @WSN (99) PHI (112) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Ben Lively 라이블리, Logan Allen로건
COL DET (61) SDP (96) Chase Dollander (x2), Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Ryan Feltner, Germán Márquez
DET @COL (108) TEX (150) Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Tarik Skubal, Jackson Jobe (vTEX) Jobe (@COL), Casey Mize
HOU @MIL (115) CIN (50) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco (x2), Hayden Wesneski Lance McCullers Jr.
KCR CHW (131) BOS (51) Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo (vCHW), Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic Lugo (vBOS) Michael Lorenzen
LAA TOR (141) BAL (120) Yusei Kikuchi, Jose Soriano Tyler Anderson (x2) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @MIA (103) @ARI (90) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May Ben Casparius (?), Roki Sasaki Landon Knack (?)
MIA LAD (58) @CHW (137) Max Meyer Sandy Alcantara (@CHW) Alcantara (vLAD), Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Valente Bellozo (?)
MIL @HOU (116) @TBR (117) Freddy Peralta Jose Quintana Brandon Woodruff (?), Quinn Priester Tobias Myers (x2)
MIN BAL (146) SFG (127) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson Chris Paddack
NYM @ARI (90) CHC (67) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes David Peterson (@ARI), Tylor Megill Griffin Canning, Peterson (vCHC)
NYY SDP (115) @ATH (75) Max Fried Carlos Rodón (vSDP) Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren, Rodón (@ATH) Carlos Carrasco
PHI @TBR (117) @CLE (159) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola Ranger Suárez
PIT @STL (109) ATL (92) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski (x2)
SDP @NYY (33) @COL (108) Michael King (@NYY), Dylan Cease Nick Pivetta, King (@COL) Stephen Kolek (?), Randy Vásquez
SEA @ATH (75) TOR (188) Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller (vTOR) Miller (@ATH) Emerson Hancock, Logan Evans
SFG @CHC (95) @MIN (88) Logan Webb Landen Roupp (x2), Jordan Hicks Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray
STL PIT (127) @WSN (99) Matthew Liberatore, Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas (x2), Steven Matz, Erick Fedde 페디, Andre Pallante
TBR PHI (86) MIL (72) Drew Rasmussen (x2), Shane Baz Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @BOS (46) @DET (98) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @LAA (137) @SEA (99) Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Bowden Francis Eric Lauer 라우어 (?)
WSN CLE (109) STL (118) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker Jake Irvin, Brad Lord, Trevor Williams Michael Soroka (?)

A few general schedule notes:

  • Now that we’ve reached May, I’m starting to use in-season data to calculate opponent strength.
  • The Athletics have a beast of a schedule next week; not only are they playing two of the hottest offenses in baseball, they’re playing in their tiny bandbox in Sacramento. Those games should be extremely high scoring affairs. The Padres also have to face the Yankees next week, in New York to boot, but San Diego then gets to travel to Colorado. The Diamondbacks just barely avoid the double red tags, but I’d still avoid their starters against the Mets and Dodgers.
  • No team has a double green week, but the Twins get close with series against the struggling Orioles and the Giants at home.





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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carrollsbarrels
13 hours ago

I don’t think you need to be as afraid of @COL anymore. No way are you sitting Michael King. Even Mize I would run.