Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 29–June 4

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

May 29–June 4
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
BAL CLE (154) @SFG (169) Tyler Wells (x2), Kyle Gibson Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish
BOS CIN (98) TBR (30) Chris Sale Brayan Bello (vCIN), James Paxton Garrett Whitlock Corey Kluber, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello (vTBR)
NYY @SEA (115) @LAD (37) Gerrit Cole Domingo Germán (@SEA), Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino Clarke Schmidt, Domingo Germán (@LAD)
TBR @CHC (85) @BOS (71) Shane McClanahan (x2), Tyler Glasnow Zach Eflin (x2), Taj Bradley Josh Fleming
TOR MIL (95) @NYM (111) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt Alek Manoah, José Berríos Yusei Kikuchi (x2)
CHW LAA (65) DET (117) Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech (vDET), Lucas Giolito (vDET) Michael Kopech (vLAA), Lucas Giolito (vLAA), Lance Lynn
CLE @BAL (106) @MIN (63) Logan Allen (x2), Shane Bieber Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale
DET TEX (85) @CHW (106) Eduardo Rodriguez Matthew Boyd (x2), Michael Lorenzen Alex Faedo, Joey Wentz
KCR @STL (59) COL (158) Brady Singer Jordan Lyles, Daniel Lynch Mike Mayers, Zack Greinke
MIN @HOU (91) CLE (150) Sonny Gray (x2), Joe Ryan (x2), Pablo López, Bailey Ober Louie Varland
HOU MIN (80) LAA (82) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier J.P. France (x2) Brandon Bielak (x2)
LAA @CHW (106) @HOU (91) Shohei Ohtani Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval Tyler Anderson Jaime Barría (x2), Griffin Canning
OAK ATL (98) @MIA (130) JP Sears, Luis Medina Paul Blackburn (x2), Ken Waldichuk, James Kaprielian
SEA NYY (76) @TEX (30) Bryce Miller (x2), Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo Marco Gonzales
TEX @DET (169) SEA (100) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Martín Pérez, Jon Gray Dane Dunning Andrew Heaney
ATL @OAK (184) @ARI (89) Bryce Elder (@OAK), Spencer Strider Jared Shuster, Charlie Morton, Bryce Elder (@ARI) Dylan Dodd
MIA SDP (163) OAK (163) Sandy Alcantara (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera
NYM PHI (100) TOR (61) Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander Kodai Senga (x2) Carlos Carrasco Tylor Megill
PHI @NYM (111) @WSN (72) Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez (@WSN) Ranger Suárez (@NYM) Taijuan Walker Dylan Covey
WSN @LAD (37) PHI (76) Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore Trevor Williams (x2), Jake Irvin, Patrick Corbin
CHC TBR (39) @SDP (128) Marcus Stroman (@SDP) Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly Marcus Stroman (vTBR), Justin Steele Kyle Hendricks
CIN @BOS (71) MIL (82) Hunter Greene Ben Lively 라이블리 (x2), Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft Luke Weaver
MIL @TOR (63) @CIN (54) Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes Adrian Houser (x2), Julio Teheran, Colin Rea
PIT @SFG (169) STL (63) Mitch Keller Rich Hill (@SFG), Johan Oviedo Roansy Contreras, Vince Velasquez Rich Hill (vSTL)
STL KCR (176) @PIT (150) Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty
ARI COL (152) ATL (89) Zac Gallen (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리 Ryne Nelson (vCOL), Brandon Pfaadt Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson (vATL)
COL @ARI (89) @KCR (165) Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber Dinelson Lamet Karl Kauffmann (x2), Connor Seabold, Chase Anderson
LAD WSN (43) NYY (54) Tony Gonsolin Clayton Kershaw Bobby Miller (x2), Noah Syndergaard, Gavin Stone
SDP @MIA (130) CHC (69) Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish Michael Wacha Ryan Weathers (@MIA) Ryan Weathers (vCHC)
SFG PIT (139) BAL (93) Anthony DeSclafani (x2), Logan Webb, Alex Cobb Sean Manaea, Alex Wood

A few general schedule notes first:

  • The Brewers embark on a pretty tough road trip next week with stops in Toronto and Cincinnati. Both of those ballparks are incredibly conducive to home runs and both opponents play extremely well at home. Half of their rotation wouldn’t be recommended even if the matchup was good, but it’s probably a week where you’re more likely to sit Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta.
  • After a tough pair of matchups on the road this week, the Marlins return home next week to host a couple of pretty weak lineups in their cavernous ballpark. The Orioles also have two easier matchups on the schedule which should help with some of your decision-making if you’re rostering any of their starters.
  • The Royals and Cardinals have a weird two-game series next week followed by two off days in a row. It’s a scheduling quirk that’s a result of the holiday on Monday. St. Louis will get a chance for some extra rest during a week where they’re facing two weak teams.
  • The Rockies are on the road next week and have a particularly enticing matchup in Kansas City next weekend giving you an opportunity to start Kyle Freeland or Austin Gomber — if you’re rostering them, you’ve been waiting for exactly this situation!

The Nationals offense has been hitting really well over the last two weeks and they’ve been pretty productive on the road this year making that matchup in Los Angeles particularly tough for the Dodgers. It doesn’t help that Dodger Stadium is pretty home run friendly either. After the Nats, the Yankees come to town which looks like an equally challenging series. Due to all the injuries sustained in their starting rotation, rookies Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone are lined up to take the ball in three games next week; all three look like pretty risky propositions even if the matchup against Washington seems enticing on paper.

The Mariners head to Texas to face the red hot Rangers next weekend which opens up some tough choices for a couple of their starters. Marco Gonzales is an easy sit, but Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo are scheduled to take the mound in the other two games and they’ll face a really strong offense. I’ve listed them both as starts since Miller has been simply dominant across his first five starts in the majors and Castillo looked much better in his last start against the A’s. I’d understand if you chose to avoid that matchup though since it looks really poor on paper.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Joe Ryan
  • Shane McClanahan
  • Sandy Alcantara
  • Zac Gallen
  • Nathan Eovaldi
  • Sonny Gray
  • Anthony DeSclafani
  • Bryce Miller
  • Tyler Wells
  • Logan Allen





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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nerck93
9 months ago

Looks like Matthew Liberatore is scheduled to start @Pit on 6/2, any thoughts on his viability this week?