Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: March 27–April 6

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks.

First, a reminder that the first week of Ottoneu head-to-head leagues ends on March 30, which means you have one weekend to hit your games started cap. That means you’ve got a very short window to figure out which starters to use over the next four days, and you may want to use some of the riskier pitchers on your roster just to hit the cap. The table below has my sit/start recommendations for the weekend and then there’s a second table below for the first normal week.

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A few general schedule notes:

• These first few weeks of the season have some awkward off days to give teams a buffer for any early season rainouts. That, combined with some still unsettled rosters, means you should definitely pay attention to the announced starters for each game, make note of any rotation shuffling, and have a backup plan just in case one of your starters misses a start.
• The Mariners have an extremely easy schedule to start the season, hosting the A’s and Tigers before heading to San Francisco next weekend. All of their starters are usually must starts, but even with George Kirby on the IL to start the season, giving Emerson Hancock some consideration might be worthwhile if you need a two-start pitcher next week.
• No team has three tough matchups during this first week and a half, but the Dodgers and Marlins have a pair of them next week. Los Angeles hosts the Braves before heading to Philadelphia while Miami hosts the Mets before traveling to Atlanta.