Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 9–15

Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

June 9–15
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SEA (99) SDP (139) Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2), Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH @LAA (113) @KCR (142) Luis Severino Jeffrey Springs (@KCR) Springs (@LAA), Mitch Spence, JP Sears Jacob Lopez
ATL @MIL (91) COL (158) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder
BAL DET (110) LAA (108) Cade Povich (x2), Zach Eflin Dean Kremer, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS TBR (64) NYY (45) Garrett Crochet Brayan Bello (x2), Lucas Giolito, Walker Buehler, Hunter Dobbins
CHC @PHI (93) PIT (130) Matthew Boyd (x2) Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea (vPIT) Rea (@PHI), Ben Brown, Cade Horton
CHW @HOU (64) @TEX (155) Shane Smith, Sean Burke (@TEX) Burke (@HOU), Davis Martin, Adrian Houser Bryse Wilson
CIN @CLE (135) @DET (125) Andrew Abbott (x2), Nick Lodolo Nick Martinez Brady Singer Wade Miley
CLE CIN (100) @SEA (158) Gavin Williams Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Tanner Bibee Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건
COL SFG (114) @ATL (115) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Chase Dollander (x2), Antonio Senzatela, Carson Palmquist
DET @BAL (113) CIN (107) Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty Casey Mize Sawyer Gipson-Long (x2) Keider Montero
HOU CHW (126) MIN (108) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Lance McCullers Jr. Ryan Gusto (x2), Colton Gordon
KCR NYY (55) ATH (65) Kris Bubic (x2) Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen
LAA ATH (47) @BAL (113) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @SDP (141) SFG (137) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dustin May Clayton Kershaw (x2), Tony Gonsolin Landon Knack
MIA @PIT (102) @WSN (99) Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers Eury Pérez (?), Cal Quantrill Connor Gillispie
MIL ATL (106) STL (115) Freddy Peralta (x2), Chad Patrick Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale, Brandon Woodruff (?)
MIN TEX (154) @HOU (64) Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews (vTEX), David Festa Chris Paddack, Matthews (@HOU)
NYM WSN (106) TBR (93) David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes Griffin Canning (x2), Tylor Megill
NYY @KCR (142) @BOS (43) Clarke Schmidt (@KCR), Max Fried, Carlos Rodón Will Warren, Schmidt (@BOS) Ryan Yarbrough
PHI CHC (38) TOR (86) Zack Wheeler (x2), Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez Jesús Luzardo Mick Abel
PIT MIA (110) @CHC (86) Mitch Keller (vMIA), Paul Skenes Keller (@CHC) Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney Mike Burrows (x2)
SDP LAD (56) @ARI (56) Nick Pivetta (x2), Dylan Cease Stephen Kolek Randy Vásquez, Ryan Bergert
SEA @ARI (56) CLE (119) Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo Bryce Miller, George Kirby Logan Gilbert (?)
SFG @COL (105) @LAD (29) Robbie Ray, Logan Webb Landen Roupp (x2), Hayden Birdsong Justin Verlander
STL TOR (113) @MIL (91) Matthew Liberatore, Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디 Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas (x2)
TBR @BOS (43) @NYM (88) Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz (x2), Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @MIN (113) CHW (116) Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle Nathan Eovaldi (?) Jack Leiter (x2) Patrick Corbin
TOR @STL (108) @PHI (93) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt José Berríos (x2), Eric Lauer 라우어, Bowden Francis
WSN @NYM (88) MIA (113) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker, Trevor Williams





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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SpuriosityMember since 2025
12 hours ago

Thanks for this useful tool! Robbie Ray being a maybe for the start at Coors makes me wonder how dominant someone has to be in order to be a must start there, he’s been gold for me this year.