Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 2–8

Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

June 2–8
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @ATL (74) @CIN (45) Merrill Kelly 켈리, Corbin Burnes Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson (x2), Brandon Pfaadt
ATH MIN (112) BAL (89) Luis Severino (x2), Jeffrey Springs Gunnar Hoglund, JP Sears Jacob Lopez (x2)
ATL ARI (63) @SFG (155) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder
BAL @SEA (145) @ATH (67) Tomoyuki Sugano (@SEA), Zach Eflin Cade Povich, Charlie Morton, Sugano (@ATH) Dean Kremer
BOS LAA (53) @NYY (57) Garrett Crochet Richard Fitts (x2), Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito, Walker Buehler
CHC @WSN (100) @DET (144) Matthew Boyd Colin Rea, Ben Brown Cade Horton (x2), Jameson Taillon
CHW DET (84) KCR (112) Shane Smith (x2), Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon (x2), Davis Martin Sean Burke
CIN MIL (85) ARI (28) Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez Brady Singer (x2)
CLE @NYY (57) HOU (123) Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건 (vHOU) Allen (@NYY), Luis L. Ortiz
COL @MIA (90) NYM (85) Kyle Freeland Germán Márquez (x2), Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela, Ryan Feltner (?)
DET @CHW (115) CHC (57) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Jackson Jobe (@CHW), Casey Mize Jobe (vCHC) Keider Montero
HOU @PIT (133) @CLE (161) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Lance McCullers Jr. (x2) Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon
KCR @STL (105) @CHW (115) Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans (?) Michael Lorenzen (x2)
LAA @BOS (55) SEA (53) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano Tyler Anderson (x2) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD NYM (108) @STL (105) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Dustin May (x2) Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Landon Knack
MIA COL (165) @TBR (82) Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara, Ryan Weathers Cal Quantrill, Edward Cabrera, Meyer (@TBR)
MIL @CIN (45) SDP (131) Peralta (@CIN) Quinn Priester Aaron Civale
MIN @ATH (67) TOR (145) Joe Ryan (x2), Pablo López (x2) Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack Zebby Matthews
NYM @LAD (39) @COL (118) David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes Tylor Megill (x2), Griffin Canning Paul Blackburn (?)
NYY CLE (106) BOS (73) Carlos Rodón (x2), Max Fried Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren Ryan Yarbrough
PHI @TOR (115) @PIT (133) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT HOU (112) PHI (60) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney Mike Burrows (x2)
SDP @SFG (155) @MIL (138) Nick Pivetta, Dylan Cease Stephen Kolek (x2) Kyle Hart 하트 (x2), Randy Vásquez
SEA BAL (141) @LAA (89) Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo George Kirby (x2), Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller
SFG SDP (167) ATL (124) Logan Webb (x2), Landen Roupp, Robbie Ray Hayden Birdsong Justin Verlander (?)
STL KCR (150) LAD (79) Matthew Liberatore Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray Andrew Pallante (vKCR), Erick Fedde 페디 Pallante (vLAD)
TBR TEX (136) MIA (60) Drew Rasmussen (x2), Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz Zack Littell, Taj Bradley
TEX @TBR (82) @WSN (100) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR PHI (63) @MIN (145) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis (x2), Eric Lauer 라우어, José Berríos
WSN CHC (41) TEX (162) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Trevor Williams (vTEX) Williams (vCHC)





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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