Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 7–13

Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

July 7–13
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SDP (134) @LAA (73) Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2) Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (x2)
ATH ATL (95) TOR (86) Jeffrey Springs (x2), Mitch Spence, JP Sears, Luis Severino, Jacob Lopez
ATL @ATH (81) @STL (123) Spencer Strider Grant Holmes Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep (?) Didier Fuentes (x2)
BAL NYM (120) MIA (100) Charlie Morton Tomoyuki Sugano, Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Brandon Young (x2)
BOS COL (149) TBR (57) Garrett Crochet Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito Richard Fitts (vCOL), Walker Buehler Hunter Dobbins (?), Fitts (vTBR)
CHC @MIN (107) @NYY (49) Shota Imanaga (@MIN) Matthew Boyd, Imanaga (@NYY) Cade Horton, Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon
CHW TOR (97) CLE (143) Adrian Houser, Shane Smith, Sean Burke (vCLE) Burke (vTOR), Jonathan Cannon Aaron Civale (x2)
CIN MIA (49) COL (130) Andrew Abbott Nick Martinez (x2), Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer (vCOL) Singer (vMIA), Chase Burns
CLE @HOU (102) @CHW (141) Gavin Williams Tanner Bibee (@CHW) Bibee (@HOU), Joey Cantillo (x2), Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건
COL @BOS (50) @CIN (86) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner (?), Antonio Senzatela, Chase Dollander
DET TBR (89) SEA (76) Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson, Casey Mize Dietrich Enns 엔스
HOU CLE (164) TEX (148) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez Brandon Walter, Lance McCullers Jr. Colton Gordon
KCR PIT (129) NYM (100) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Noah Cameron (vPIT), Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen, Cameron (vNYM)
LAA TEX (121) ARI (27) Yusei Kikuchi (vTEX), José Soriano (vTEX) Kikuchi (vARI), Soriano (vARI) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson
LAD @MIL (86) @SFG (164) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow (?), Shohei Ohtani (?) Dustin May, Ben Casparius (F)
MIA @CIN (86) @BAL (104) Eury Pérez (x2) Janson Junk (x2), Edward Cabrera Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill
MIL LAD (68) WSN (72) Freddy Peralta (x2), Jacob Misiorowski, Chad Patrick Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester, Brandon Woodruff
MIN CHC (42) PIT (134) Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), David Festa, Chris Paddack Connor Gillispie
NYM @BAL (104) @KCR (164) Clay Holmes (@KCR) Holmes (@BAL), David Peterson Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea (?) Blade Tidwell
NYY SEA (45) CHC (29) Max Fried Carlos Rodón Will Warren (x2), Clarke Schmidt Marcus Stroman
PHI @SFG (164) @SDP (134) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler Mick Abel
PIT @KCR (164) @MIN (107) Paul Skenes (x2), Mitch Keller Mike Burrows Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney
SDP ARI (58) PHI (118) Dylan Cease (x2), Nick Pivetta (vPHI) Pivetta (vARI) Stephen Kolek, Yu Darvish (?) Randy Vásquez
SEA @NYY (49) @DET (71) Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryan Woo, George Kirby Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG PHI (136) LAD (102) Robbie Ray, Logan Webb Landen Roupp (vPHI) Justin Verlander, Hayden Birdsong, Roupp (vLAD)
STL WSN (100) ATL (143) Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde 페디
TBR @DET (71) @BOS (50) Shane Baz (x2), Ryan Pepiot (x2), Drew Rasmussen Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @LAA (73) @HOU (102) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi (x2) Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @CHW (141) @ATH (81) José Berríos (@CHW), Chris Bassitt Kevin Gausman Bowden Francis, Max Scherzer, Berríos (@ATH)
WSN @STL (123) @MIL (86) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams (x2)





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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Hazmat CorntailMember since 2022
7 hours ago

Not sure how Shane Smith can be anything but Risky at best right now. Him @ COL looks like a ratio killer waiting to happen.

Hazmat CorntailMember since 2022
7 hours ago

P.s. I know the start I mentioned is this weekend, I wouldn’t go anywhere near him vs. CLE

Hazmat CorntailMember since 2022
5 hours ago
Reply to  Jake Mailhot

I did see that, yeah, but the Cards also knocked him around before that. I think I’d still at least have him as Risky, but I get it.