Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 31–August 6
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.
A few general schedule notes first:
- The trade deadline is on Tuesday next week which means some of these rotations might look very different by Wednesday. Keep an eye on the probable matchups early in the week while players get moved around; the recommendations I made above assume that everyone sticks with their original team which obviously won’t happen. When in doubt, use the matchup rating for the series to determine whether or not to start a pitcher on his new team if they’re traded midweek. The rotations for each team should be settled by the weekend which means next week’s recommendations should be a bit more straightforward.
- The impending returns of Hyun Jin Ryu, Max Fried, Nestor Cortes, and José Urquidy will also shake up the rotations on their respective teams. Generally, I recommend waiting a start or two before inserting a starter back into your lineup after he returns from a major injury like these four are.
- As far as the actual schedules go, it looks like the Rangers and Mets both get a pair of easier matchups next week. Texas plays at home against two weaker offenses while the Mets travel to two pitcher friendly ballparks.
- The Braves, Padres, and Reds get a tough slate of opponents next week. Cincinnati and Atlanta both travel to Chicago to face the red hot Cubs and they’ve got tough home matchups in their other series next week too. San Diego travels to Colorado to start next week and then returns home to face the Dodgers over the weekend.
Notable two-start pitchers:
- Zac Gallen
- Framber Valdez
- Pablo López
- George Kirby
- Corbin Burnes
- Freddy Peralta
- Alex Cobb
- Jon Gray
- Johan Oviedo
- Brayan Bello
- Taijuan Walker
- Ranger Suárez
- Marcus Stroman
- José Quintana
Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.