Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 3–9

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 3–9
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI NYM (120) PIT (158) Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson Zach Davies (x2), Brandon Pfaadt, Tommy Henry
ATL @CLE (102) @TBR (93) Spencer Strider Bryce Elder (x2), Charlie Morton Kolby Allard, Michael Soroka
BAL @NYY (138) @MIN (126) Tyler Wells (x2), Kyle Bradish Kyle Gibson (x2), Dean Kremer Cole Irvin
BOS TEX (54) OAK (142) Brayan Bello (vOAK), Garrett Whitlock James Paxton Brayan Bello (vTEX) Kutter Crawford
CHC @MIL (138) @NYY (115) Justin Steele, Marcus Stroman Drew Smyly (x2), Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jameson Taillon
CHW TOR (54) STL (47) Lucas Giolito (x2), Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech Tanner Banks
CIN @WSN (95) @MIL (138) Andrew Abbott Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson Luke Weaver (x2), Alec Mills (x2)
CLE ATL (27) KCR (147) Gavin Williams (vKCR), Shane Bieber (vKCR), Tanner Bibee, Aaron Civale Shane Bieber (vATL) Gavin Williams (vATL) Cal Quantrill
COL @HOU (86) @SFG (151) Austin Gomber Kyle Freeland, Connor Seabold Chase Anderson, Peter Lambert
DET OAK (174) TOR (111) Tarik Skubal (vOAK), Reese Olson, Michael Lorenzen Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal (vTOR) Tyler Alexander
HOU COL (108) SEA (115) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier (vSEA) Cristian Javier (@TEX), J.P. France (x2) Ronel Blanco
KCR @MIN (126) @CLE (102) Austin Cox (x2), Zack Greinke (x2), Brady Singer Jordan Lyles, Daniel Lynch
LAA @SDP (88) @LAD (70) Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval Jaime Barría Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson
LAD PIT (113) LAA (16) Clayton Kershaw (vPIT), Bobby Miller, Julio Urías Emmet Sheehan, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw (vLAA)
MIA STL (104) PHI (120) Braxton Garrett (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez Sandy Alcantara Johnny Cueto (?)
MIL CHC (63) CIN (43) Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes Julio Teheran (x2), Wade Miley, Adrian Houser Colin Rea
MIN KCR (163) BAL (97) Joe Ryan (x2), Kenta Maeda, Pablo López, Sonny Gray Bailey Ober
NYM @ARI (86) @SDP (88) Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander Kodai Senga (x2) Carlos Carrasco, José Quintana (?)
NYY BAL (77) CHC (68) Gerrit Cole Domingo Germán (x2), Clarke Schmidt (x2), Luis Severino, Carlos Rodón (?)
OAK @DET (167) @BOS (54) JP Sears (@DET) Hogan Harris, Paul Blackburn, JP Sears (@BOS) Luis Medina, James Kaprielian
PHI @TBR (93) @MIA (115) Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Aaron Nola (@MIA) Aaron Nola (@TBR), Taijuan Walker Cristopher Sánchez
PIT @LAD (70) @ARI (86) Mitch Keller (x2) Johan Oviedo, Rich Hill Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Osvaldo Bido
SDP LAA (45) NYM (104) Yu Darvish, Blake Snell (vNYM) Blake Snell (vLAA), Joe Musgrove, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo
SEA @SFG (151) @HOU (86) Bryan Woo (@SFG), Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryce Miller, George Kirby, Luis Castillo Bryan Woo (@HOU)
SFG SEA (158) COL (151) Logan Webb (x2), Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood Keaton Winn
STL @MIA (115) @CHW (88) Miles Mikolas (x2), Jordan Montgomery Jack Flaherty Adam Wainwright (x2), Matthew Liberatore
TBR PHI (113) ATL (54) Zach Eflin (vPHI), Shane McClanahan Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley, Zach Eflin (vATL) Yonny Chirinos
TEX @BOS (54) @WSN (95) Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning (@WSN) Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi Dane Dunning (vHOU), Martín Pérez (@WSN) Martín Pérez (vHOU)
TOR @CHW (93) @DET (167) Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman Yusei Kikuchi Trevor Richards (x2)
WSN CIN (41) TEX (41) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Patrick Corbin (x2), Josiah Gray, Trevor Williams

A few general schedule notes first:

  • Not many teams get a double helping of cake matchups next week. The Giants will head into the All-Star break with a homestand against two weaker offenses in the Mariners and Rockies. The Orioles also have a couple of easier matchups on paper next week, but they’re on the road and face a tough divisional matchup in the Yankees.
  • The Brewers, Nationals, and White Sox have rough matchups in both their series next week. Lucas Giolito has a two-start week but I’d be pretty hesitant to start him against the Blue Jays and Cardinals at home. Depending on how you feel about Corbin Burnes this year, he looks like a pretty risky start against the on-fire Reds.
  • A couple teams have wonky schedules next week. The Astros and Rangers wrap up a four-game series on Monday; Houston will host Colorado for two and the Mariners for four while Texas travels to Boston and Washington for a pair of three-game series. On the other end of the week, the Dodgers and Angels play a two-game series the weekend before the All-Star break with both teams taking Sunday off.
  • It looks like there are a handful of starters slated to come off the Injured List next week, including Carlos Rodón, Tarik Skubal, Johnny Cueto, and José Quintana. I’d recommend waiting to see how they fair after their injuries, though Skubal’s start at home against the A’s looks really enticing.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Joe Ryan
  • Logan Webb
  • Braxton Garrett
  • Tyler Wells
  • Cristian Javier
  • Logan Gilbert
  • Clayton Kershaw
  • Blake Snell
  • Shane Bieber
  • Zach Eflin
  • Miles Mikolas
  • Bryan Woo





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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