Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 29–August 4

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The MLB trade deadline is next week and I’d expect to see plenty of pitchers moved ahead of the deadline. Make sure you’re double- and triple-checking the announced starters, especially on Monday and Tuesday, so that you’re not caught off guard by a surprise trade.
• There aren’t any teams that are facing a pair of tough matchups by the calculate matchup ratings above, but I’d avoid Toronto’s starters if I were you. They’re on the road against the Orioles and Yankees with a scheduled doubleheader in Baltimore on Monday. It’ll be a tough week for the O’s too; because of that doubleheader, they’re scheduled to play eight games in seven days including the start of a road trip next weekend in Cleveland.
• On the flip side, the Diamondbacks and Cardinals both have a pair of easier matchups on the docket next week. It’s a little easier to recommend Arizona’s starters since St. Louis’ have been so erratic this year, but they should all have some pretty rosy matchups to take advantage of.