Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 14–23

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• With the All-Star break taking up the first half of this week, head-to-head matchups in most leagues will span July 14–23. In Ottoneu head-to-head leagues with a Games Started cap, players will need to wisely plan their matchups since the number of starts they have to cover is the same, only with three extra days in the matchup window.
• There are just a few teams who will start off the second half of the season with a string of easier matchups. Both the Twins and the Mariners are probably your best bet to set it and forget it with their entire rotations. Seattle has ten games at home following their All-Star hosting duties and two of their three opponents are particularly weak.
• On the other hand, there are a bunch of teams with a stretch of tough opponents following the midseason break. The Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Reds all have particularly challenging matchups over the next ten days which makes it a bit of a risk to rely on any of their pitchers. Not only do Cincinnati’s opponents hit well, they’re also playing all three series at home in the most home run friendly ballpark in the majors.
• Keep an eye on how teams line up the back half of their starting rotations after this weekend. Most teams haven’t announced starters for games early next week, and the order they lineup their fourth and fifth starters could have an effect on their matchups next weekend.