Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 7–13

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves are entering a particularly tough stretch of their schedule this weekend; they’re about to play 14 games in 13 days without an off day due to a doubleheader against the Mets next weekend. They’re getting Max Fried back from the IL today but they’ll likely need to call up a spot starter next weekend. Luckily both of their matchups next week look pretty easy on paper.
• The Mets have the benefit of an off day before that extra long weekend series against the Braves but both of their matchups look particularly tough next week. They’re also needing to restock their rotation after the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline.
• The Yankees and Rangers both have some pretty easy matchups next week, though they’ll all come on the road. New York travels to Chicago and Miami while Texas will play in both of the expansive ballparks in the Bay Area. The Red Sox host the Royals and the Tigers next week which both look like easier matchups too, though Kansas City has been playing particularly well recently.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Gerrit Cole
• Spencer Strider
• Pablo López
• Dylan Cease
• Julio Urías
• Zach Eflin
• Freddy Peralta
• Sonny Gray
• Dane Dunning
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Braxton Garrett
• Kutter Crawford