Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 5–11

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• There are a few schedule quirks next week: the Mets and Cardinals have a makeup game on Monday which means New York flies from Los Angeles to St. Louis for a single game and then head to Denver and Seattle to complete the road trip. That’s a pretty heavy schedule which could lead to some really tired bodies by the end of it. The other quirk is a scheduled doubleheader between the Twins and Guardians on Friday.
• Folks, we did it. We have the highest possible matchup score when the White Sox visit Oakland — that’s the worst offense over the last 14 days and on the road playing in the stadium with the best combination of overall run scoring and home run suppressing park factors. JP Sears, Ross Stripling, and Joey Estes are lined up to start in that series and they’re all pitching well enough to count on.
• The Padres, Twins, and Yankees all have a pair of easier matchups on the schedule while the Blue Jays and Phillies have a couple of tough series and the Rockies are at home for a six-game homestand.