Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 4–10

Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 4–10
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SDP (106) COL (125) Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (x2), Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez Anthony DeSclafani (?)
ATH @WSN (133) @BAL (64) J.T. Ginn Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez, Luis Severino Osvaldo Bido
ATL MIL (69) MIA (93) Spencer Strider Joey Wentz (x2) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Carlos Carrasco, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep (?)
BAL @PHI (44) ATH (72) Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Brandon Young (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich (?)
BOS KCR (86) @SDP (92) Garrett Crochet (x2) Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito Dustin May, Walker Buehler
CHC CIN (113) @STL (133) Matthew Boyd Michael Soroka (x2), Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton Colin Rea
CHW @SEA (174) CLE (82) Davis Martin (x2), Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke Jonathan Cannon
CIN @CHC (89) @PIT (137) Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns, Nick Lodolo (@PIT) Lodolo (@CHC), Brady Singer Zack Littell (@PIT) Littell (@CHC)
CLE @NYM (133) @CHW (80) Slade Cecconi (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건, Joey Cantillo
COL TOR (37) @ARI (114) Tanner Gordon (x2), Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock
DET MIN (112) LAA (101) Casey Mize (vMIN), Tarik Skubal Chris Paddack, Jack Flaherty, Mize (vLAA) Charlie Morton
HOU @MIA (127) @NYY (75) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Spencer Arrighetti (?) Jason Alexander (x2), Colton Gordon
KCR @BOS (60) @MIN (79) Seth Lugo Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron Bailey Falter (x2) Ryan Bergert (?)
LAA TBR (109) @DET (121) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD STL (126) TOR (59) Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell Clayton Kershaw
MIA HOU (88) @ATL (88) Eury Pérez Sandy Alcantara (x2), Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill (x2), Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk
MIL @ATL (88) NYM (113) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester (x2) Jose Quintana
MIN @DET (121) KCR (100) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM CLE (111) @MIL (105) Sean Manaea (x2), David Peterson Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga Frankie Montas
NYY @TEX (131) HOU (82) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil
PHI BAL (89) @TEX (131) Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo (@TEX) Luzardo (vBAL) Taijuan Walker
PIT SFG (111) CIN (98) Paul Skenes Mike Burrows (x2), Mitch Keller Carmen Mlodzinski (x2), Andrew Heaney
SDP @ARI (114) BOS (96) Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease JP Sears (x2) Randy Vásquez
SEA CHW (113) TBR (150) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG @PIT (137) WSN (150) Logan Webb Justin Verlander (x2), Robbie Ray Carson Whisenhunt Spencer Bivens (?)
STL @LAD (59) CHC (70) Sonny Gray (x2) Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante
TBR @LAA (81) @SEA (174) Adrian Houser (x2), Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Joe Boyle
TEX NYY (69) PHI (71) Jacob deGrom Nathan Eovaldi, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @COL (52) @LAD (59) Kevin Gausman Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt Eric Lauer 라우어 (x2), José Berríos
WSN ATH (59) @SFG (145) MacKenzie Gore (@SFG) Gore (vATH), Brad Lord Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin Cade Cavalli (?)





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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