Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 26–September 1

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The are a few teams who have scheduled doubleheaders next week — the Royals and Guardians and the Brewers and Reds. Kansas City has the most difficult schedule since they’ll be in the midst of a 12-day, 13-game stretch. Cleveland will likely need to call up two pitchers to cover for their doubleheader as they’re at the end of a long stretch of games without an off day.
• As far as easier matchups go, the Pirates have a pretty nice schedule against the Cubs and the Guardians. It’s also probable that Jared Jones will make his return from the IL next week and he’s lined up to get a pretty nice matchup against Chicago.
• A bunch of teams are facing a pair of tough opponents next week: the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, and Phillies. Baltimore probably has the worst schedule as they travel to Los Angeles and Colorado with a beat up starting rotation — Corbin Burnes is the only pitcher I can recommend from their staff.