Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 14–20

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• There are a number of teams who have a five-game schedule next week, including the Blue Jays, Cubs, Phillies, Reds, Twins, and White Sox. Those teams might use the two off days to skip a start or reorder their rotations so keep an eye on the scheduled starters next weekend. Pay attention to Philadelphia and Toronto in particular since both of those teams are currently using a six-man rotation, meaning one of their regular starters won’t have a start next week.
• The Twins look like the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week when they take on the Tigers and Pirates at home. The Brewers have the unenviable task of traveling to Los Angeles and Texas to face two of the toughest offenses in baseball. The Angels also have a rough schedule next week, continuing their grueling stretch of opponents with the Rangers and Rays. I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone on the Blue Jays or White Sox either.
• Even though the Rockies have two series at home next week, their matchup ratings look artificially mediocre rather than poor like you’d expect. That’s largely due to them playing on the road recently, bringing their last 14 day wOBA down. Even though the matchup rating for the Diamondbacks and White Sox looks okay, I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone at Coors Field anyway.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Max Fried
• Logan Gilbert
• Yu Darvish
• Max Scherzer
• Bobby Miller
• Miles Mikolas