Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 11–17

Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 11–17
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @TEX (132) @COL (49) Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson (@TEX) Anthony DeSclafani (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Nelson (@COL)
ATH TBR (122) LAA (82) Jeffrey Springs (x2), Jacob Lopez, J.T. Ginn, Luis Severino Jack Perkins
ATL @NYM (140) @CLE (130) Spencer Strider (x2) Joey Wentz Carlos Carrasco, Bryce Elder, Erick Fedde 페디
BAL SEA (104) @HOU (111) Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich Brandon Young
BOS @HOU (111) MIA (58) Garrett Crochet (x2) Lucas Giolito Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello
CHC @TOR (41) PIT (146) Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga Cade Horton (vPIT) Horton (@TOR), Jameson Taillon (?) Colin Rea
CHW DET (69) @KCR (122) Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke, Davis Martin Mike Vasil (F)
CIN PHI (50) MIL (12) Andrew Abbott (x2), Chase Burns Brady Singer, Hunter Greene (?) Zack Littell
CLE MIA (83) ATL (112) Gavin Williams Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo Logan Allen로건 (x2), Slade Cecconi
COL @STL (146) ARI (76) Kyle Freeland (@STL) Anthony Molina (x2), Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon
DET @CHW (94) @MIN (99) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Charlie Morton, Casey Mize Chris Paddack (x2)
HOU BOS (75) BAL (106) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Cristian Javier (?), Spencer Arrighetti Colton Gordon
KCR WSN (135) CHW (102) Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron Bailey Falter (x2), Michael Lorenzen
LAA LAD (66) @ATH (23) José Soriano (x2), Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson, Kyle Henderson, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @LAA (113) SDP (90) Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @CLE (130) @BOS (47) Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera Janson Junk (@CLE), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Junk (@BOS)
MIL PIT (122) @CIN (95) Freddy Peralta (x2), Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Jose Quintana
MIN @NYY (85) DET (86) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews (x2) Bailey Ober, José Ureña, Simeon Woods Richardson (?) Pierson Ohl
NYM ATL (115) SEA (102) Clay Holmes (vATL), David Peterson, Sean Manaea Kodai Senga, Holmes (vSEA) Frankie Montas
NYY MIN (101) @STL (146) Max Fried Will Warren (x2), Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil Cam Schlittler
PHI @CIN (95) @WSN (153) Ranger Suárez (x2), Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola (?)
PIT @MIL (84) @CHC (122) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows Andrew Heaney (x2)
SDP @SFG (162) @LAD (59) Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish (@SFG), Michael King, Dylan Cease Nestor Cortes, Darvish (@LAD)
SEA @BAL (66) @NYM (140) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo Logan Evans
SFG SDP (122) TBR (180) Logan Webb (x2) Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander Carson Whisenhunt Kai-Wei Teng
STL COL (142) NYY (108) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy Miles Mikolas (x2), Andre Pallante
TBR @ATH (23) @SFG (162) Ryan Pepiot (@SFG) Pepiot (@ATH), Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Joe Boyle, Adrian Houser
TEX ARI (98) @TOR (41) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR CHC (84) TEX (126) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer 라우어 José Berríos (x2), Max Scherzer
WSN @KCR (122) PHI (86) Cade Cavalli (@KCR), Brad Lord, MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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