Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 7–13

Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 7–13
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI BAL (66) MIL (125) Zac Gallen (x2), Corbin Burnes Merrill Kelly 켈리, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH SDP (100) NYM (40) Luis Severino (x2), Jeffrey Springs Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears Joey Estes
ATL PHI (45) @TBR (104) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes Bryce Elder
BAL @ARI (70) TOR (97) Zach Eflin (x2) Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich
BOS TOR (67) @CHW (138) Garrett Crochet (x2), Tanner Houck (@CHW) Houck (vTOR) Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts, Sean Newcomb
CHC TEX (84) @LAD (31) Shota Imanaga Justin Steele (x2) Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd Ben Brown
CHW @CLE (134) BOS (40) Sean Burke Shane Smith (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Martín Pérez
CIN @SFG (165) PIT (108) Hunter Greene (x2), Nick Martinez Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer Andrew Abbott (?)
CLE CHW (168) KCR (96) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Logan Allen로건 (x2), Luis L. Ortiz
COL MIL (89) @SDP (107) Germán Márquez Kyle Freeland (x2), Antonio Senzatela, Ryan Feltner, Bradley Blalock
DET NYY (77) @MIN (99) Tarik Skubal Casey Mize (x2), Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Jackson Jobe
HOU @SEA (161) LAA (101) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco Hayden Wesneski (x2)
KCR MIN (94) @CLE (134) Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic Michael Lorenzen (x2)
LAA @TBR (104) @HOU (84) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano Tyler Anderson Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @WSN (148) CHC (82) Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Dustin May (x2), Roki Sasaki
MIA @NYM (56) WSN (139) Sandy Alcantara Max Meyer Connor Gillispie (x2), Tyler Phillips, Cal Quantrill
MIL @COL (111) @ARI (70) Freddy Peralta (@ARI) Peralta (@COL), Jose Quintana (?) Nestor Cortes, Elvin Rodriguez, Chad Patrick
MIN @KCR (81) DET (150) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson (x2) Chris Paddack
NYM MIA (167) @ATH (117) Kodai Senga (x2), Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY @DET (166) SFG (128) Max Fried Carlos Rodón (x2) Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Will Warren
PHI @ATL (36) @STL (137) Zack Wheeler (x2), Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker
PIT STL (119) @CIN (49) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Carmen Mlodzinski (x2), Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney
SDP @ATH (117) COL (146) Michael King (x2), Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta Kyle Hart 하트 Randy Vásquez
SEA HOU (101) TEX (88) Logan Gilbert (x2), Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo Luis F. Castillo (?)
SFG CIN (105) @NYY (47) Logan Webb (vCIN) Jordan Hicks, Webb (@NYY) Landen Roupp, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray
STL @PIT (140) PHI (65) Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde 페디 Matthew Liberatore (@PIT), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas Liberatore (vPHI)
TBR LAA (96) ATL (36) Shane Baz (vLAA), Ryan Pepiot Zack Littell, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, Baz (vATL)
TEX @CHC (105) @SEA (161) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Tyler Mahle, Kumar Rocker
TOR @BOS (46) @BAL (76) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis José Berríos (x2) Easton Lucas (x2)
WSN LAD (41) @MIA (148) Mitchell Parker MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Williams (@MIA) Williams (vLAD), Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka

A few general schedule notes:

  • The toughest schedule next week might belong to the Brewers who travel to the thin air of Colorado and then to Arizona to face the potent D-Backs lineup. Their rotation is a mess anyway with Freddy Peralta and Nestor Cortes essentially the only two pitchers you’d even consider starting, and luckily enough, they’re both scheduled to pitch in Coors Field next week.
  • There isn’t a single team with two great matchups next week, though the Yankees come close with a series in Detroit and then a home series against the Giants.





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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