Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 28–May 4

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

A few general schedule notes:

• They’re not marked in red above, but I’d be weary of starting anyone from the Braves or Diamondbacks next week. Atlanta travels to Colorado which makes Chris Sale’s scheduled start a big risk and then the team returns home to host the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Arizona heads out on an East Coast road trip through New York and Philadelphia and neither Corbin Burnes or Zac Gallen have been all that impressive to start this season.
• The Astros look to be the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week, at home against the Tigers and on the road against the White Sox. Ronel Blanco could be lined up for a double-start week but that could be in flux if Houston decides to activate Lance McCullers Jr. next weekend.