Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).
The Dodgers and Cubs gain an extra day off next week to offset their early start in Japan in March. That means they’ll only play five games, though the Dodgers will need to call up a spot starter anyway after Bobby Miller was optioned after his own spot start on Thursday. Roster Resource has Matt Sauer listed as the starter on Wednesday but it’s possible Los Angeles will activate Tony Gonsolin for that start instead.
After spending most of the month rehabbing, we’ll probably see the season debuts of Ranger Suárez, Brayan Bello, Tobias Myers, and Lance McCullers Jr. (!) next week and Jack Leiter and Pablo López are on track to be activated from their short stints on the IL too.
Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.
