Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 5–7

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 5–7
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.297 99 HOU 0.309
CHC 0.348 98 MIA 0.305
PIT 0.344 95 TOR 0.327
CIN 0.309 116 CHW 0.298
TBR 0.377 94 NYY 0.297
PHI 0.335 106 BOS 0.340
NYM 0.323 97 COL 0.304
CLE 0.289 101 MIN 0.317
ATL 0.342 98 BAL 0.333
KCR 0.276 93 OAK 0.305
STL 0.329 94 DET 0.279
LAA 0.330 107 TEX 0.342
ARI 0.322 94 WSN 0.299
SDP 0.319 98 LAD 0.336
SFG 0.330 90 MIL 0.315

Teams with favorable schedules this weekend include the A’s, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Rays, Royals, and Twins.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Brad Keller 43.59% OAK 0.305 4.80 0.0% 0.30
Kyle Muller 38.46% KCR 0.276 5.48 3.6% 1.26
Ken Waldichuk 32.69% KCR 0.276 7.42 9.0% 2.90
Joey Lucchesi 8.33% COL 0.304 3.46 17.0% 0.73
Michael Lorenzen 4.49% STL 0.329 5.31 15.4% 1.93
Josh Fleming 3.21% NYY 0.297 2.97 8.9% 0.00
Yonny Chirinos 2.24% NYY 0.297 2.88 12.0% 0.00

There are three recommendations in that Royals-A’s series in Oakland this weekend. Brad Keller still hasn’t found his groove with his new breaking balls that he introduced this year, but the matchup and venue are just too good to pass up. Both Kyle Muller and Ken Waldichuk have been frequent inclusions in this column but neither has really pitched up to their potential yet. The Royals’ punchless offense is as good an opportunity to get their seasons back on track.

After sitting out most of 2021 and all of last year due to Tommy John surgery, Joey Lucchesi has been thrust back into the Mets rotation with all their injuries they’ve been dealing with. He’s made two starts so far and has looked pretty good; he shut out the Giants in seven innings in his first start and allowed three runs in 5.1 against the Nationals in his second. He’s lined up to start at home against the Rockies.

With Aaron Judge on the IL and the rest of the Yankees lineup really struggling to produce anything right now, it’s the perfect time to take advantage of this struggling team. This weekend, the Rays host New York and there are two starters who could make for nice drip candidates. Josh Fleming has worked as a long reliever for the most part this year. Make sure he’s actually listed as the starter and isn’t lined up to be the bulk pitcher after an opener. The same goes for Yonny Chirinos. He’s finally healthy after a long road to recovery after Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow.

Hot starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Vince Velasquez 19 2.71 22.4% 0.47 6.48
Rich Hill 17.1 2.81 18.9% 0.00 5.02
Yusei Kikuchi 17.2 3.28 24.20% 1.02 5.83

Now that we’re a little deeper into the season, I can point out some under-owned pitchers who have been throwing well recently who might not be making it into the recommended section above due to their matchups. I’m looking at data from the last 14 days to find these pitchers who are performing well.

The two Pirates starters have been phenomenal recently, part of the entire team’s fantastic month of April. Rich Hill continues to do his thing at 43 years old and has had a very nice run of three starts including a gem in Coors Field where he held the Rockies to just a single run in six innings back on April 17. I recommended Vince Velasquez for his start against the Nationals last weekend and he delivered a commanding performance. He’s now posted back-to-back shutouts in his last two outings. He looks like he’s in the middle of one of those hot streaks that remind us why he was so highly thought of as a prospect and why he’s continued to bounce around the league despite never really living up to his potential.

Yusei Kikuchi’s most impressive start came back on April 15 when he held the red hot Rays to just a single run in six innings. It seems like he’s gotten his control problems figured out while still racking up the strikeouts. His stuff is good enough that he could finally be breaking out five years after coming over to the US from Japan.

Recap: April 28–30

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Kyle Muller 5 11.7 2.34
Nick Pivetta 5 12.7 2.54
Dean Kremer 5 14.4 2.88
Vince Velasquez 6 38.4 6.40
Caleb Kilian 3.1 -5.3 -1.60
Total 24.1 71.9 2.95
Season Total 301.2 970.8 3.22

Velasquez’s start was the big win over the weekend but that was negated by the disaster of a start from Caleb Kilian in Miami. The rest of the slate was fine, not too bad but no clear wins either.





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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