Ottoneu SP Drip: Finding Under-rostered Starters

I went back and checked and it’s been more than two months since I’ve written up some under-rostered starters. This column is finally back with a few suggestions for the stretch run. Most Ottoneu head-to-head leagues began their playoffs this week and teams in points leagues will soon need to start really thinking about managing their innings cap. Here are a few starters who have been performing particularly well over the last few weeks who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues and a look at their remaining schedules.

With Shohei Ohtani unable to pitch for the rest of the season, Griffin Canning is getting another shot to prove he can handle a starter’s workload. He had been working in a piggyback role with Chase Silseth but his last two appearances have been traditional starts. He’s excelled by allowing just three runs in 13 innings, striking out 16. The biggest difference I can discern in those two starts was a greater reliance on his hard changeup. It’s not his best pitch — that would be his slider — but it does help him keep left-handed batters at bay. He’s also got a pretty soft schedule to finish the season too with starts against the Guardians, Tigers, and A’s potentially on the docket.

Dean Kremer has been a frequent recommendation in this column this year and his up-and-down performance has likely kept his roster rate pretty low. He’s actually been on a pretty good run since the All-Star break with just a single start where he’s allowed more than three runs. His strikeout-minus-walk rate has been a fairly mediocre 11.3% during this stretch but he’s managed to keep the ball in the yard which had been his Achilles Heel previously. He has starts lined up against the Angels (today), Cardinals, Astros, Guardians, and potentially the Red Sox depending on how the Orioles shift their rotation with John Means’ impending return. I’d feel comfortable starting him in four of those five games.

Brandon Williamson has seemingly settled into the big leagues after a rough-ish start to his major league career. He’s posted a solid 3.93 FIP in the second half with a good 16.7% strikeout-minus-walk rate; over his last six starts, he’s racked up 39 strikeouts against just six walks. A slight uptick in fastball velocity and a greater reliance on his changeup are likely the drivers behind this recent stretch of good outings. Unfortunately, he was placed on the COVID-19 IL last weekend and his outlook for the rest of the season is a bit up in the air. If he returns quickly, he could potentially start against the Cardinals, Mets, and Pirates to end the season but that’s obviously very tentative at this point.

Paul Blackburn has been the A’s best starter this year (which isn’t actually saying much) and he’s taken a pretty big step forward as far as his underlying metrics go. A new slider has helped him push his strikeout rate up to a career-high. Combined with his very favorable home park, he’s got some sneaky upside on a team that no one is paying attention to. I’d avoid his next two starts against the Rangers and Astros, but he’s got the Mariners (at home), Tigers, and Angels lined up to finish out the season.

Of the five pitchers listed above, I think I’m most interested in adding Javier Assad for this stretch run. He pitched out of the Cubs bullpen for nearly the entire season before getting shifted to the rotation in August. He’s thrived in longer outings and has been one of the key contributors to Chicago’s summer ascent. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts since making the transition out of the ‘pen; his last two starts have been particularly impressive, allowing just a single run in 15 innings with 14 strikeouts and just 3 walks. He has scheduled starts against the Diamondbacks, the Rockies twice (avoid him in Coors Field), the Pirates, and the Brewers to finish out the season.