Ottoneu SABR Points vs. FanGraphs Points – A Case Study

I wanted to refer to the Format Wars in this article, but they aren’t really wars. They are barely skirmishes. They are mostly friendly debates.

But there is debate! Head-to-Head vs. Seaon-long? Roto vs. points? If you pick roto, are you into 4×4 or 5×5? For points, do you go SABR or FanGraphs? I am happy to weigh in on all of these questions, but today we have a prime opportunity to discuss the two points formats and what makes them unique, so we are going to do that.

This opportunity was presented courtesy of George Kirby. Or maybe the Mariners’ defense. Or, given I am a Guardians fan, maybe I should say this opportunity was created by their offense. But Kirby will be our focus here.

If you visit the Ottoneu FAQ page, you can see the way points are calculated for each format and you’ll notice something about SABR Points (SABRPts) and FanGraphs Points (FGPts) – they score offense the same.

See? The same! Get a single, get 4.6 points (remember, the AB is -1). Turn it into a double, get 7.5! Stay at first but steal second and get 6.5 (yes, a single and a SB has less value than a double, as it should). Easy. And so hitters are the same. Kind of. We’ll get back to that.

Pitchers, however, are not the same.

The core here is that SABRPts is pure defense-independent pitching, isolating only what the pitcher is responsible for. Way back in 2011, after developing the SABRPts system, Justin Merry wrote up how the scoring was developed, including an explanation of why points exist for saves and holds. He explained the differences between the two systems later that season, when he developed FanGraphs Points.

The TL;DR here is that while SABRPts is defense-independent, it gave pitchers no responsibility for hits allowed and that felt off to some fantasy players. So now we have two points systems for pitchers.

Why am I bringing this up today? Because as I am writing, the Guardians are finishing off an 8-0 win over the Mariners. And George Kirby had either a solid, but short start or a very, very bad start, depending on what scoring you use.

Wild, huh? 5.27 P/IP out of a starting pitcher is excellent. 0.58 is not. So if you see Jake Mailhot out there cursing his luck in league 32, it’s cause he has George Kirby on his roster. If you see me celebrating my luck in league 670, it’s cause I have George Kirby on my roster. We just got very different results.

Over the course of a season, you won’t see this drastic a difference. For Kirby, the rest of the year, he might have few or no starts with significant gaps between his scores. Last year, the top two SP in total points for both formats were Gerrit Cole and Logan Webb. In SABRPts, Webb had 1100 points and 1064. In FGPts, Cole had 1171; Webb had 1110. A 17 point difference in a single start is an outlier. Among the top 50 pitchers in total SABRPts in 2023, the average pitcher scored 27 more points in FGPTs. If we look at the top 50 by FGPts, they scored, on average, 35 fewer points in SABRPts.

Which brings us back to our earlier point about hitters being the same…kind of. Pitchers score a bit less in SABR Points. It isn’t a huge gap, but it isn’t 0 either. It’s like an extra start. And that means pitchers are, on the whole, worth less. They score a lower share of the points! And that drives up hitter values a bit. Not a ton, but enough to make you go that extra few bucks in the auction for a top hitter.

Which format is better? This is personal preference. I both really like how SABRPts isolates what pitchers are responsible for and really like that FGPts doesn’t let them get away with serving up meatballs just because they happened to stay in the yard. Should you be rewarded for starting George Kirby on a day when his defense simply could not create outs behind him, but he avoided the long ball and didn’t issue a walk? Or should you be punished for starting him when he gave up nearly as many hits as he recorded outs?

I’ll leave that choice to you.

But. If you’re curious. The right answer?

Play both.