Ottoneu: Lucas’ Keep or Cut Decisions at MI

The points per game (P/G) mark drops when it hits the middle infield position. In fact, players lined up at second and short hold the lowest P/G replacement level marks among defensive positions. Even Catchers do better. It’s hard to find power-hitting middle infielders and easy to find quick, speedy base-stealing ones. Analyzed below are three who emanate young potential and one who pulsates nostalgia. Each of them bring their own challenges to the keep/cut decision-making process.

Replacement level 2B (36 rostered): 3.52 P/G

Replacement level SS (36 rostered): 3.32 P/G

2024 Keep/Cut: C – CI – MI – OF – SP – RP

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Colson Montgomery, SS
Salary: $4
Average Salary: $4
2024 P/G: –
Proj 2025 P/G: 3.27

Moving away from yet-to-debut minor leaguers rostered for over $2 has been my M.O. lately. Montgomery gives me pause. Why? I have no idea. Maybe it’s because I saw him in the Arizona Fall League one year and was impressed. Maybe it’s because he came in a solid package trade when I finally realized my hopes of finishing near the top were ill-fated. Whatever the reason, we have to start with his performance in the minor leagues in the last two seasons:

I mean yikes! All the good stats steadily declined and all the bad stats steadily increased. For all the voices whispering “keeeeeep Montgomery” in the back of my head, I still don’t know why. Maybe I should see someone. In times like these, when I don’t know how to assess a minor leaguer, I consult Eric Longenhagen’s analysis. Just this November, Longenhagen rated Montgomery out to a 55 future value. That translates to an above-average, regular in-the-lineup player, with 2.5 to 3.3 WAR seasons ahead of him. In that November piece, Longenhagen wrote:

Montgomery still has the talent to be an impact player, but it’s pretty clearly going to take a while.

Things were already looking bad, back in July, 2024 when a Longenhagen mid-season check-in reported:

Colson Montgomery is still just too big and slow for me to feel comfortable projecting him as an average shortstop defender.

This doesn’t have to be a long, drawn-out thing. I just traded away Samuel Basallo and regretted it nearly immediately. Still, I stuck to my plan. $4 is too much to pay right now for a player who is going the opposite direction in the minor leagues, plays for literally the worst team, and may “take a while” to develop. Sometimes, to quiet those “keeeeeep Montgomery” voices in my head, I transport to a quiet, peaceful place in the stream bed of a babbling brook and clear my mind.

Keep or Cut?

Cut.

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Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B/SS/OF
Salary: $6
Average Salary: $6
2024 P/G: 3.40
Proj 2025 P/G: 3.93

Unlike Colson Montgomery, many of the stats I pay close attention to are moving in the right direction for Ceddanne Rafaela. The 24-year-old was given an eight-year contract by the Red Sox in April, he played in 152 games this season, and his P/G projection for 2025 is expected to be above average. Here is the same view on Rafaela as I provided for Montgomery above:

I don’t mean to bury you with stats, but Rafaela’s HardHit% also increased between 2023 and 2024. Sadly, none of these marks are above average except for his batting average which 2024’s mark was above league average and if you really think about it, we’re all pretty close to average. So why in the world is Steamer’s P/G projection so high for Rafaela? They have him doing better in every statistic listed in the tables above. So what do you do? He’s going to keep getting better and better and may get to the point where he’s really great? I can’t wait for the 2025 ZiPS series train to head to Boston and tell me that Rafaela will become a G. His 3-year projections may sway me depending on the results, but for now, I’m keeping. While the Red Sox contract may be weighted defensively, they believe in this player enough. Who am I to argue?

Keep or Cut?

Keep.

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Trevor Story, SS
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $5
2024 P/G:
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.05

Story returned from Tommy John Surgery in August like your favorite veteran pitcher. The year was 2023. In those final months of the season, he slashed .203/.250/.316, and you thought, “He’s back baby!” Well, that’s not what you thought. But you saw those ten stolen bases and three home runs and you gave him the benefit of the doubt. Then, he started the 2024 season ready for a full year, slashing .226/.294/.323 through 8 games and you thought, “He’s back baby!” Then, he dislocated his shoulder and went on the IL until he returned a week into September to make his season mark at 26 games with a .255/.340/.394 slash line.

A starter question is, will he play in 2025? RosterResource thinks yes, as does Steamer (Proj: 618 PA). Steamer also thinks he could steal 20 bags and hit 17 home runs. A real showing, and Story could go 20-20 in 2025. It’s a tough call, but with what seems like defensive security on a young Red Sox team, a projection above average, and a belief in 32 year-olds making random come backs, I’m keeping with a close eye on what happens in April and May.

Keep or Cut?

Keep.

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Nick Gonzales, 2B/SS
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $4
2024 P/G: 4.17
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.53

It should be noted that Nick Gonzales’ 4.53 P/G projection (Steamer) is the highest of all the middle-infielders analyzed in this article. Steamer thinks he’ll gain in 2024’s 387 plate appearances with a 2025 projection of 503. Because of that he’ll hit more home runs (7 -> 10) and steal more bases (5 ->6). Steamer expects his batting average to decrease, but his slugging percentage to increase. Maybe that’s because his BABIP in 2024 was a high .319 but his barrel rate jumped to 7.9%. That’s just league average, but Gonzales showed improvement in his dropped K% and increased zone contact rate. He’s 25 years old, so he’ll need to start making bigger improvements at a faster pace to keep fantasy managers’ attention, but he’s worth a spot on most benches. Nick Yorke may be a problem for Gonzales, who can play other positions like third and short but is mostly a second baseman. If you keep Gonzales, you’re likely going to have to keep him for the entire season before you’re really able to justify your decision. For me, at an above average $5, I’m throwing to the cut pile and hoping to pick him up for less at the draft.

Keep or cut?

Cut.