Ottoneu Keeper and Inflation Data: 2018
Last year I posted an article summarizing the keeper results for all ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, and now that the ottoneu keeper deadline has come and gone once again I am back with an update.
For context, here were the keeper results for 2016-2017:
| League Age | Proj 1st | # Keepers | Salary Kept | Value Kept | Surplus | Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seventh Year Leagues | $522 | 307 | $3,383 | $3,568 | $185 | 25.3% |
| Sixth Year Leagues | $537 | 302 | $3,353 | $3,569 | $217 | 24.5% |
| Fifth Year Leagues | $535 | 298 | $3,332 | $3,517 | $184 | 20.5% |
| Fourth Year Leagues | $517 | 302 | $3,325 | $3,474 | $149 | 15.9% |
| Third Year Leagues | $516 | 289 | $3,317 | $3,463 | $146 | 16.3% |
| Second Year Leagues | $499 | 273 | $3,206 | $3,183 | ($23) | 0.0% |
| Grand Average | $524 | 296 | $3,317 | $3,471 | $154 | 17.6% |
- Leagues kept 296 players on average, costing $3,317 and worth $3,471(according to my personal values), resulting in 17.6% average inflation for all leagues
- Those per team averages come out to about 25 players kept per team with $276 in salary and $289 in value
- My general conclusion was that as leagues get older the best teams in a league get better and inflation rises, with a sharp jump from second year to third year leagues, but that there is an eventual plateau sometime at or after the seventh year
Here are the results for 2018 (please keep in mind that I’ve excluded any league that had teams over the $400/40 caps at the keeper deadline, leagues with less than 12 teams, and vote-off leagues):
| League Age | Proj 1st | # Keepers | Salary Kept | Value Kept | Surplus | Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eighth Year Leagues | $517 | 293 | $3,398 | $3,603 | $205 | 19.2% |
| Seventh Year Leagues | $545 | 303 | $3,509 | $3,672 | $163 | 17.3% |
| Sixth Year Leagues | $530 | 307 | $3,474 | $3,610 | $126 | 12.4% |
| Fifth Year Leagues | $516 | 272 | $3,343 | $3,540 | $197 | 17.6% |
| Fourth Year Leagues | $503 | 286 | $3,325 | $3,475 | $149 | 13.4% |
| Third Year Leagues | $506 | 254 | $3,272 | $3,363 | $91 | 7.2% |
| Second Year Leagues | $490 | 275 | $3,326 | $3,262 | ($64) | -4.8% |
| Grand Average | $515 | 284 | $3,378 | $3,504 | $124 | 11.8% |
- In 2018 leagues kept 284 players on average, costing $3,378 and worth $3,504 (according to my personal values), resulting in 11.8% inflation
- Those per team averages come out to about 24 players kept per team with $282 in salary and $292 in value
- In general teams kept one fewer player than they did the last two years, spending $6 more but with only $3 in additional value
- Inflation overall is down quite a bit compared to the past two years, at every league age bucket, and I’m not entirely sure why. It looks like ottoneu owners were less likely to cut their overpriced studs this offseason, which drove inflation down a bit.
Lastly, here are the combined keeper/inflation totals for all three seasons:
| League Age | Proj 1st | # Keepers | Salary Kept | Value Kept | Surplus | Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eighth Year Leagues | $517 | 293 | $3,398 | $3,603 | $205 | 19.2% |
| Seventh Year Leagues | $530 | 306 | $3,425 | $3,603 | $178 | 22.6% |
| Sixth Year Leagues | $535 | 304 | $3,393 | $3,583 | $187 | 20.5% |
| Fifth Year Leagues | $529 | 289 | $3,336 | $3,525 | $188 | 19.5% |
| Fourth Year Leagues | $512 | 297 | $3,325 | $3,474 | $149 | 15.1% |
| Third Year Leagues | $513 | 277 | $3,302 | $3,430 | $128 | 13.3% |
| Second Year Leagues | $496 | 274 | $3,246 | $3,209 | ($37) | -1.6% |
| Grand Average | $521 | 292 | $3,337 | $3,482 | $144 | 15.7% |
- In general, second year leagues actually have slight deflation (cut ruthlessly!), but inflation rises sharply from the second year to the third, and begins to level out around the sixth to eighth season
- I have only two years worth of seventh year league data, and only a single year for eighth year league data, but it looks like the inflation plateau I predicted in last year’s column probably exists right around the seventh or eighth season. It will be interesting to see if the plateau exists again in ’19, and whether the oldest leagues have stable inflation or actually begin to have less inflation
I didn’t do this analysis last year, but here are the year over year inflation changes from 2017 to 2018 for all FanGraphs points leagues where I have inflation data for both seasons:
| Year over Year | 2017 | 2018 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seventh to Eighth | 24.8% | 21.4% | -3.4% |
| Sixth to Seventh | 16.8% | 15.7% | -1.1% |
| Fifth to Sixth | 17.1% | 14.8% | -2.3% |
| Fourth to Fifth | 15.6% | 17.6% | 2.0% |
| Third to Fourth | 10.7% | 13.7% | 3.0% |
| Second to Third | -2.2% | 7.7% | 9.9% |
- The trends are very similar to the inflation changes you might expect when looking at the ’16-’18 combined table above
- At least for this year, leagues going into their third season
I first posted about inflation as a function of league age in ottoneu two years ago, and while I don’t think the data or the conclusions are ironclad, it is useful to have an understanding of general inflation trends when considering offseason trades and keep/cut decisions.
Any questions about these results? Were there any surprising keeps or cuts in your leagues? Let me know in the comments!
Justin is a life long Cubs fan who has been playing fantasy baseball for 20+ years, and an ottoneu addict since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @justinvibber.
Why is their deflation in 2nd year leagues? That seems to be the case in mine, and was quite surprised. What changes dramatically between year two and three?
I don’t really know for certain, to be honest, but here are some possibilities:
1) 2nd year league salaries reflect market rates from last year’s auction (plus $2 annual increases, plus arbitration), so there just isn’t very much surplus in those leagues right off the bat. Obviously some players have much more value than they did this time last year (Judge, Bellinger, etc), but in general 2nd year leagues have very few surplus assets, which limits inflation even if everyone makes perfect keeper decisions.
2) 2nd year leagues don’t make very good keeper decisions. Despite my point above, 2nd year leagues keep just as many players as 3rd year leagues do, even though there aren’t as many favorable salaries/assets. I think the biggest reason for this is 2nd year leagues are more likely to feature owners new to ottoneu (that aren’t yet comfortable with player valuation and strategy), and even when they do seek out advice that advice is often geared more towards older leagues with 15%+ inflation.
3) 2nd year leagues tend not to have “super” teams that disrupt the ottoneu market of a league. More teams see themselves as competitive, so they are less likely to trade away or cut star players, even if they are overpriced.