Ottoneu Hot Right Now: September 20th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Sawyer Gipson-Long – 74 current auctions

A week ago, Gipson-Long was lower down this list and I urged caution, given his mixed minor league track record. And then he went out and struck out 11 over 5 innings, walking three and allowing just one run on two hits in 5 IP. I did note a propensity for the long ball and he did give up a homer, so I can kind of claim to be right, right?

Uh, no, I was wrong. And not only was I wrong, I can’t even take much solace in that one HR. His hard-hit and barrel rates are excellent or at least would be excellent if he kept them up. On top of that, he is lined up for starts against Oakland and Kansas City before the end of the year. So I am changing my tune. At this point, if you need innings, I would pick him up. If things go well, re-evaluate him in the off-season and figure out if he really turned a corner and became a keeper or if you can sell high on what is shaping up to be a stellar final month.

Joe Boyle – 27 current auctions

Did I learn my lesson from being so wrong on Gipson-Long? Maybe not. Because Boyle is another guy who came seemingly out of nowhere and had a solid first start (0 R and 4 K over 3 IP) but I am still not in. I am even less in, in fact. With Gipson-Long, even last week, I said I could see trying to capture lightning in a bottle. With Boyle? No way. He walked two hitters in his three MLB innings. He walked 11 in 16 Triple-A innings and 82 in 101.1 Double-A innings. He has no control, whatsoever. There is just no way this continues to work.

Luis Campusano – 26 current auctions

Campusano is something of a post-hype guy, as he came into 2023 with 92 MLB PA over three seasons after emerging as an exciting catching prospect a few years back. His MLB struggles took some of the shine off, but this year he is getting his first extended look at big league pitching and he likes what he sees. Campusano has a 130 wRC+ in 164 PA, including 7 HR. His prior MLB stints totaled a 26.1% k-rate. He has cut that in half this go-round. And it isn’t just the strikeouts – he is chasing less, swinging more in the zone (suggesting he is making better decisions on what to swing at overall) and making contact at higher rates both in and out of the zone. His barrel rate is up and his IFFB% is way down. He is pulling the ball more often. It really looks like he is becoming the bat we dreamed on a few short years ago. And he isn’t yet 25 – a little old for a prospect, but only a little, and catchers are often a little slow to develop. I don’t think he maintains this level of production, but there is plenty of room for him to regress and still be an excellent Ottoneu catcher.

Roman Anthony – 24 current auctions

The Red Sox prospect was hitting well enough for a 19-year-old in A-ball (109) wRC+ to earn a look at high-A, where he went from “good enough” to “really, really good” (164 wRC+) and earned another step up to Double-A, where he is making a mockery of the league (185 wRC+). The natural assumption is that he will only improve as he moves up and put up an MVP season for the Sox next year.

Ok, so he probably won’t do that, but dominating the high minors like this as a teenager is incredibly impressive. And while it is only 44 Double-A PA, he seems to have resolved the one issue he had in High-A, reducing his K-rate from 30.6% to 13.6%. Not long ago he looked like an interesting prospect who was a couple of years away. Now he looks like he has a shot at a 2024 debut and is establishing himself as one of the best fantasy prospects out there.

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Roster Adds

The top four players on this list (Kyle Hurt, 33.65% of leagues with an add in the last seven days; Julian Merryweather, 27.56%; Sawyer Gipson-Long, 20.19%; and Robert Stephenson, 16.35%) were all covered in this space last week (or this week and there isn’t much to add. The next two names are at least worth a quick look.

Kris Bryant – Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 11.54%

The latest episode of the Keep or Kut podcast also came out today, and on it, I discuss Bryant briefly with my co-host, Pete Ball. Bryant is now up to about 75% of a season over the last two years with Colorado and the overall numbers aren’t bad. The problem is he is obviously struggling to stay on the field. The other problem is that the numbers aren’t bad but they aren’t great and he’s been below replacement level on the road this year. The Rockies are on the road the rest of this week but, assuming Bryant doesn’t get hurt in the meantime, he can certainly help you next week, as the Rockies close out the season with a homestand.

Nick Loftin – Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 11.54%

Managing a .410 wOBA, even over 43 PA, without hitting a single HR is pretty fascinating. It doesn’t look super sustainable (hello .424 BABIP), but he does have a 9.3% walk rate and just a 14% strikeout rate, with a decent hard-hit rate. The issue is that he isn’t elevating the ball at all, which makes it awfully hard to keep piling up extra-base hits, especially with middling speed. There is a solid hit tool here, but I don’t think there is enough pop to make that hit tool play up in fantasy.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Xander Bogaerts (11 P/G)

That doesn’t even include Tuesday night’s 2-5 with a HR. Bogaerts was taking a lot of heat early in the year for being a bust, especially after that fat new contract, but I don’t think the talk track has caught up with the fact that his second half has been vintage Bogaerts. In the off-season you are going to hear a lot of talk about his down season, his decline and how bad that contract looks. And right now, I think I want to be the one buying low on Bogaerts heading into 2024.

Luis Arraez (7.38 P/G)

I have long felt that Arraez isn’t as good as his reputation. From a fantasy perspective, he has mostly been only okay, posting below 5.0 P/G two of the last four years and never posting a particularly great season. 2022 was really the first year he had much value. Empty OBP (and that is what he has been) has value but not THAT much in this format. But suddenly he has five homer runs in September. When dawn broke on September 3, he had 19 career HR, had only once hit more than five in a season, and had never hit more than three in a month. Between September 3 and September 16, he hit five homers. He hit four from the 12th to the 16th including his first career two-homer day. Over that stretch he has been pulling the ball more, elevating the ball more, and hitting the ball harder. His walk rate and BABIP are down, but who cares? He has more than doubled his ISO! I am very curious how this continues through the next 12 days and into 2024. If he is going to sell out for a bit more power, he changes his fantasy profile in a significant way.