Ottoneu Hot Right Now: September 14th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Kyle Hurt – 94 current auctions

I got called out recently for being a contrarian, in response to a comment about RP prospect Luke Little (who isn’t on this list, but maybe should be). I basically said I don’t believe in stashing RP prospects, and yet I am about to tell you that I am bidding on Kyle Hurt (and might look at Little, as well). The case for Hurt is pretty straight-forward (absolutely elite minor league K-rates, improving walk rates, and solid ground ball rates for a team) so let’s use this space to talk (briefly) about why I don’t like prospect RP and why I do like recent prospect call ups.

Relief prospects are just too high risk. They bust at a high rate, their progression to the majors can be hard to predict, and the upside they provide just isn’t big enough to justify sitting on a dead roster spot for them. Go check out a leaderboard of Double-A k-rates for relievers from past years – there are a couple of names that pop but many that never found their way to MLB and more that were never any good. That is true of prospects at any position, but the fungibility of relievers in most Ottoneu formats means that the upside on waiting on a reliever just isn’t there as compared to a SS or SP or OF.

So why am I in on Hurt and looking at Little? Because the cost for them just dropped dramatically. Instead of sitting on them for months waiting to see if they ever get a call, both of these guys are up. You can slot them into a RP spot right now and get a lot more information on what they will be long-term. Being up now gives them a chance to earn their way into the backend of the pen by next year, where they can get holds and increase their value. I am always up for jumping on a hot bullpen arm and trying to capture value, and Hurt and Little both potentially fit that description now. Watch guys like that until they get the call, and then pick them up.

Drew Thorpe – 20 current auctions

Drew Thorpe is a Guardians pitching prospect. Okay, that isn’t true but he feels like a Guardians pitching prospect. The Guards have made a killing drafting and trading for guys that are good pitchers without elite velocity, then helping them add velocity. Thorpe seems to fit that description. Back in March, Eric Longenhagen wrote up the Yankee prospect (he is actually a Yankee prospect) and led by saying, “Thorpe doesn’t have huge velocity but both of his secondary pitches are good and he has impact command of his entire repertoire.” Since then, Thorpe has debuted and advanced to double-A. Along the way he has piled up a 26.9% K%-BB%, the highest in the minors among pitchers with 90+ innings pitched. He’s been even better in his five Double-A starts than he was in High-A. The report on Thorpe was that he was a 4th or 5th starter without more velo, but the numbers tell a different story. He seems like a great guy to stash and see what the hype machine does this off-season.

Sawyer Gipson-Long – 19 current auctions

Gipson-Long made his MLB debut last week and went 5 solid innings, with 5 K, 0 BB, and 0 HR. Not a bad little outing, even if it was against the White Sox. But, to be blunt, I am not seeing it from him. He boosted his strikeout rates this year, but he has been extremely homer-prone in the minor, and that did not improve this year, allowing 20 HR over 99.2 IP in the high minors. That kind of consistent hard contact in Double- and Triple-A does not bode well for his long-term MLB success. He gets the currently-star-less Angels next, so I could understand taking a shot at catching lightning in a bottle, but I’m not placing bids.

Julian Merryweather – 17 current auctions

Merryweather has been the next big thing coming out of the pen for a while – another case of a relief prospect not being worth the cost of stashing him. He’s occasionally looked like a future elite reliever, but injuries and inconsistent performance have prevented that from coming together. But right this moment, he appears to be closing for the Cubs and is 65 innings into the kind of high-K season we expected. The 11% walk rate isn’t super inspiring, but since the All-Star Break, he walked just 8.5% of hitters (while striking out 36.8%). His history gives cause for concern, especially around health, but he is well worth rostering and slotting into your lineup as long as he is on the mound. If the walks stay down the rest of the way, he becomes an interesting potential keep.

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Roster Adds

Robert Stephenson – Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 24.36%

Honestly, this is pretty straightforward. Stephenson got traded to a super smart organization, ditched his slider for a cutter and became an absolute lockdown reliever. Is it possible this is just a crazy hot streak? I guess, but it looks an awful lot like the Rays saw something, acquired him, implemented the thing they saw, and now he is just good. I am all in. If you want more, Lucas has you covered in last week’s Hot Right Now.

Javier Assad – Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 22.44%

As with Stephenson, Assad is a repeat appearance from last week and I don’t have a ton to add to what Lucas said. I am a bit skeptical but cautiously buying in.

Nelson Velázquez– Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 16.03%

Velázquez showed some signs last year, particularly in his quality of contact, but there was too much swing-and-miss and the HR/FB rate stayed low, so it didn’t all come together. A year later things look quite a bit better. He has reduced his K-rate (getting it below 30%) and the HR/FB luck has flipped (up to 37.5%). However, the shape of some of those changes is a little concerning to me. Velázquez is swinging and chasing more than he did last year and has a higher swinging-strike rate than he did, as well. His contact rate outside the zone has plummeted. He’s brought down the strikeouts by being more aggressive and making more contact in the zone, at the expense of drawing walks (down to 6.5% from 9.2% last year). The numbers look legit (that HR/FB rate is counteracted by a .235 BABIP) but I don’t think they look particularly sustainable. If you look at a leaderboard of qualified hitters, the only players with a higher swinging-strike rate this year are Nick Castellanos and Luis Robert Jr., which doesn’t sound so bad. Drop that to a 50 PA minimum and you add a bunch of names that have flamed out or aren’t ready yet – Trey Cabbage, Mickey Moniak, Everson Pereira, Tomás Nido, Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트, Jose Siri, Elehuris Montero, Bubba Thompson, Luke Voit, Joey Gallo, Gabriel Arias, Mike Zunino, Luke Raley, Franchy Cordero, etc. That list isn’t ALL bad, but it is a lot of bad. Overcoming big-time swing and miss isn’t easy.

For now, I am happy to ride the hot streak, but Velázquez will find himself on my trade block (if he is on my roster) this off-season, as I think the hype from this performance will push his trade value above what I expect him to product.

Griffin Canning – Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 16.03%

Canning feels like a guy who comes and goes from my awareness on a monthly basis. He puts together some nice stretches, then loses it, then is back again. And he is back again, at the moment. Since the All-Star Break, he has been a very solid pitcher and looks even better if you assume you would have sat him against the Rangers and Rays (both top 5 offenses by wRC+). I don’t think he ever establishes himself as a set-it-and-forget-it type SP, but if you play matchups with him, he can be very success and that has real value.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Philadelphia and Atlanta (really good)

Yes, I know that isn’t a player, but here are your MLB leaders in total points over the last two weeks: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber. The latter two are the more interesting names, I suppose, as both of them looked like they were playing their way out of lineups at times this year and have since turned it on. If you are still looking at season-long lines for those guys, you are missing out on just how insanely good they have been since the calendar turned to September. Keep them in your lineup daily. This is also a good moment to remind you that as you near games-played caps in Ottoneu, you want to think about how you deploy guys like Acuña and Olson. They are both likely to get some rest coming up, now that the division title is official, but don’t just automatically replace them in your lineup – if you are ahead of the pace at 1B, OF or Util, take advantage of their off days to “fall back” to the pace while leaving your remaining games open to keep them in the lineup when they do play.

Mike Yastrzemski (8.5 P/G)

Yaz is still available in nearly 40% of leagues and has been on a tear of late. Since coming back from the IL on 8/30, he has a 238 wRC+. He is walking more, striking out less, hitting more HR, benefitting from a big BABIP, basically everything is going right. And his track record suggests that, while he can’t keep up 8.5 P/G the rest of the way, he can be useful OF bat. I would pick him up if you need an OF bat. I wouldn’t want to be reliant on him, but at this point in the season, you sorta have to take what you can get. Play matchups with him (bench him vs. lefties, use him more sparingly at home) and he’ll help you in the stretch run.

Bryan Shaw (10 P/IP)

Over the last two weeks, your top 10 pitchers by total points are a who’s who of top-tier (or at least close to it) SP – Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Justin Steele, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, Pablo López, Zac Gallen, Tarik Skubal. Shaw is 11th. Not per inning. 11th in total points. That is what happens when a reliever gets seven appearances in 14 days and throws more than 1 inning in most of those appearances. Shaw has been really good! And even at 35 years old, he has the kind of rubber arm that a pitching-starved team like the White Sox can run into the ground, if they need to. Shaw is far-removed from his peak and he is a pretty risky play. The bottom will fall out sooner or later. But if you are desperate for relief innings, he should be on the mound more often than most and, at least for the moment, that is working out brilliantly. Just know he is a high-risk, high-reward play.