Ottoneu Hot Right Now: May 7, 2025

The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Javier Báez – 69 current auctions

The Javier Báez renaissance is not something I saw coming. He has been bad and getting worse for years now. He seemed a lock for a bench role with the only thing preventing a DFA being his rather large contract that no owner would want to eat. In 2022, his bat was awful but his defense kept him above replacement level. By 2024, the bat was something worse than awful and the defense was no longer helping his cause. Suddenly, in 2025, playing less SS than he is 3B or CF, Báez is both hitting and fielding quite well again.

And I am 100% not buying it. The good version of Báez ran double-digit barrel rates, 40%+ Hard Hit rates, carried average exit velocities at or above 90 and flashed max EVs in the 114-116 range. This version of Báez is doing, well, none of those things.

In fact, he is posting career low numbers in every single one of those stats. That’s right. Javier Báez, he of the near-career-high wOBA, is making worse contact than he has at any point in his career. You might thing he is getting away with this by walking more and striking out less, but his walk rate is 4.0% (it was 4.3% the last three years combined) and his K-rate is 23.0% (it was 23,9% the last three years combined).

The things that have changed are somewhat random. His infield hit rate is way up – he had two infield hits last year and already has six this year. He is pulling the ball more and maybe that is helping his HR/FB rate, which is also up, but given how putrid his quality of contact is, I find it hard to believe he will sustain a 13% HR/FB rate. Last year, 26 qualified hitters had a barrel rate under 6% (Báez is at 5.6% this year). Only two maintained a HR/FB rate over 11%. One of those was Nathaniel Lowe, who actually has a history of decent HR/FB rates with weak barrel rates, at times. The other was Brendan Rodgers, who played his home games at Coors Field.

Báez is chasing less and making more contact, which helps, but chasing less should lead to either fewer strike outs or higher quality contact and he is getting neither.

At the end of the day, I think this is a mirage, and I am not buying Báez.

Gunnar Hoglund – 63 current auctions

I feel like having a relatively unique name like Gunnar H. and knowing you have almost no hope to be the best Gunnar H. in MLB during any point of your career has to be kind of frustrating, right? But Hoglund looked like he was up to the challenge in his debut, going 6 innings of 7 K, 0 BB, 6 H, 1 R ball and collecting a win.

Hoglund leans on his 4-seam, sinker, and change, but also has a slider and a sweeper that he mixes in. The change was the standout in his debut, generating a 42.9% whiff rate and low xwOBA against. He also flashed excellent command, which you can see both in the 0 walks and the 124 location+, far outshining his 100 stuff+.

Hoglund pitches today and this should be a challenge. Sacremento doesn’t appear to be an easy place to pitch and Seattle’s offense is strong. A first start in Miami was a nice soft landing, but the difficulty gets dialed up for the second start.

Looking forward, I don’t think Hoglund will maintain his K% or his BB%. The BB% is pretty obvious – 0% is pretty low – but in the minors he never flashed 10 K/9 upside like he showed in his debut. Projections have him under 7 K/9 and around a 17% K-rate, but with relatively low walk rates. I am tempted to believe he can beat that K-rate, as his 2025 Triple-A starts also suggested growth in that area. And I think the command is probably legit.

That’s enough to take a shot on Hoglund. I wouldn’t have him in my lineup today, but if he is successful again, I am would start using him. Even if it’s a rough start, but with decent K’s, few BB’s and good whiff rates, that would be enough to keep me intrigued.

Roster Adds

Shelby Miller – Add% Change (7 Days) – 49.2%

Miller has been up and down the last few years, flashing exciting talent while not consistently performing. This rush to add him is likely based on role as much as performance. Don’t get me wrong, Miller has been good, but his track record should scare a lot of people away, except the Diamondbacks seem to have a parade of injured relievers and suddenly Miller is a moving up the closer depth chart.

Miller, in fact, got a save last Thursday before blowing one (and getting a win) on Sunday. Tuesday, he closed out a 4-run win. No save, but his usage looks very closer-y. Save Thursday, Friday and Saturday they lose, gets the save chance Sunday, Monday they lose, he closes out the game Tuesday.

And that, plus his solid line this year, is enough to make him roster-worthy. You can be a pretty mediocre reliever in FanGraphs Points or SABR Points leagues and still be useful if you are getting saves. Right now, Miller looks better than mediocre.

At some point, the guys ahead of him for save chances will get healthy. And there is a good chance his performance slips, as well. When one, or both, of those things happen, he’ll be a cut again. But he’s useful until then.

Tony Gonsolin – Add% Change (7 Days) – 45.0%

Through two starts, Gonsolin has looked good, piling up strikeouts and limiting walks. He’s had some bad batted ball luck, especially in the first start, that hurts his surface level stats, but the underlying performance has been strong.

Control has been an issue for Gonsolin in the past and after walking none in his 2025 debut, he walked two batters in 5 IP on Tuesday. Overall, that isn’t so bad! But you have to wonder if the first start was a fluke and he’s going to revert to a 9%+ BB-rate. Over his career, his BB% has seemingly driven his ERA, moreso than his K-rate (graph below is from before his Tuesday start).

So far this year, the BB-rate is pretty low, even after Tuesday. And while the walks have been more of an ERA driver for him, he’s pouring on Ks like never before this year and that can’t hurt.

Given that both of his starts have been against Miami, I am not super inclined to call this a breakout. More than likely, this is just Gonsolin at his best against a week offense. But even if that means he can’t be trusted (yet) against stronger offenses, he has some value as a streamer. Just watch the walks and see where they go from here.

Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers. Players selected are usually rostered at lower levels.

J.P. Crawford – 9.4 P/G

Just 58.4% rostered, Crawford has been on a tear for the Mariners, along with most of his teammates, it seems. Crawford looked like he had found a new level in 2023, but couldn’t sustain it last year. Now he is off to a stellar start in 2025, but is that just another flash in the pan, or are we in for a good season? It’s still too early to tell, but I think we should expect something much better than we got from Crawford last year, even if 2023 isn’t likely happening again. In 2023, he boosted his HH% and Barrel% and has maintained those gains even though the down year in 2024. 2024 was sunk by a .248 BABIP and an 8.6% HR/FB rate. Crawford is showing a 10% HR/FB rate this year, closer to his 2023 number, and there is no reason to think he can’t run a BABIP around .300. That might be enough to get him to a .330+ wOBA, and that’s pretty useful.