Ottoneu Hot Right Now: March 31, 2025

Yes, we are going back to the Hot Right Now well, before we get to our first Cold Right Now. What can I say, it is still early even for us writers, and we are getting our rotation into shape.

As in previous years, I am also going to rate each player on an updated version of the scale I used last year. The big change is that I am combining the two tiers (Don’t Go Crazy and Don’t Lose) into one (Don’t Miss Out). I found that last year the “Don’t Lose” tier just never came up. There are free agents I like a lot, but I was never willing to say “yes, go get this guy at all costs, no matter what it does to your team.” So I won’t try. The updated scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as the only cuts I have to make are guys I am okay dropping.
• Don’t Miss Out – I want this player on my roster and I am willing to make an aggressive bid to do get them. How aggressive depends on how much cap space I have and what cuts are available, but I am willing to go beyond the obvious “this guy isn’t helping anyway” cuts and make some tough choices to make this work.

Current Auctions

Emilio Pagán – 58 Auctions

I get it. He has thrown two perfect innings with 2 strikeouts. He has a save and a hold. He is pitching in a pen where there isn’t much threat to his job, as long as he keeps doing it well. But how much do you trust that he will, in fact, keep doing it well?

Pagán has posted an ERA under 4 just once since 2019 and that was in 2023 when he had a 2.99 ERA, 3.27 FIP and 4.57 xFIP. That year he had a 5.3% HR/FB rate, easily the lowest of his career (his career mark is 12.7%). Other than that, he has been pretty consistent and that consistency hasn’t led to Ottoneu success. Or much fantasy success at all.

There might be some reasons to believe, if you look in the right places. Stuff+ on all his pitches is way up, and he has a 160 Stuff+ overall, which is obviously great and a massive improvement over anything he has done before. But looking at his pitches, I don’t know that I immediately see why. With a new org (yes, he was with Cincinnati last year, but only threw 38 innings), you could expect some changes, but the arm angle is the same, the break on the pitches is very similar (close enough to be noise given he has only thrown 27 pitches). He is throwing the four-seamer more and the splitter less, but he’s always thrown the four-seam most and the splitter least. Maybe this is a continuation of work the org has done to cut back on his number of pitches and focus on his best, but it’s not like his four-seamer has historically gotten great results.

In 5×5, I get that you have to bet on the job. So be it. But other than that, how much do you want to bet on a homer-prone reliever bringing down his HR/FB rate while pitching half the time in Great American Ballpark? And how much do you want to bet on a 27 pitch sample reflecting a true (and massive) change in the quality of his stuff?

Verdict: In 5×5, Don’t Stress but make the play for him because saves are saves. In other formats, Don’t Bother.

Otto Lopez – 50 Auctions

Leading into Opening Day, I had a team on another platform where I added Lopez somewhat accidentally. He was a backup plan, and the platform let me go over my roster limit to add him. I immediately cut him and message the league explaining I was not intentionally breaking the rules and everyone got a good laugh over Otto Lopez. And now…here he is!

The laughter over Lopez is easy to understand. He isn’t a particularly good hitter, he’s not in a particularly good lineup, and there isn’t much reason to expect him to do a ton. He has non-zero value in 5×5 because he plays a weak position (2B) and stole 20 bases in about 2/3rds of a season last year. Even with just 6 HR, that is at least semi-useful.

The problem is that he is swing-happy, and chase-happy, and doesn’t hit the ball super-hard. All that swinging led to a relatively low walk rate and while he made enough contact to keep the K’s in check, this isn’t a Luis Arraez/Steven Kwan profile. The .313 xwOBA isn’t some kind of a disaster, but his home park doesn’t do him any favors and the lack of power output makes the wOBA play down in Ottoneu.

And yet, I am at least a little intrigued. One HR is just one HR, but when the guy hit 6 in 434 PA last year and has 1 in his first 14 this year, that’s worth a second look. And Lopez didn’t just hit a wall-scraper – he hit a 418 foot bomb that would have been out of 27/30 stadiums.

He went up and got a 96 mph fastball above the zone and crushed it. He only hit two balls over 405 feet all of last year. And while that ball was tagged, it was not the highest EV of his career. No, the highest EV of his career came on this 109.9 mph single the next day.

Lopez is being more patient. He is walking more. He is making more contact and striking out less. He has made the hardest contact of his career. It’s way too early to call this a trend, but these auctions are happening right now. If Lopez has turned a corner – and he’s only 26, it wouldn’t be crazy for this to be a breakout – and you don’t take a shot on him now, you’ll miss out.

Verdict: Don’t Stress. Yeah, I know I just said “you’ll miss out” but the most likely explanation for all of this is still “it isn’t even April yet.” So while I am intrigued and I can totally understand picking up Lopez, I am not breaking the bank to do it. And I am more intrigued in 5×5 or other formats where his 20+ SB wheels raise the floor quite a bit.

Quick Hits

• Luke Jackson – 37 auctions – I mentioned him last week and he is still here and he’s still a “why not?” kind of low-price RP option for me.
• Tony Santillan –  33 auctions – Like Jackson, but on another team. Honestly, I like him more than Pagán except in 5×5.
• Tylor Megill – 29 auctions – Megill has real talent. He was good last year. He was good in Spring. He was good Sunday. He shouldn’t be a free agent and you should be placing a bid.

Roster Adds

Victor Scott II – Leagues with Adds (7 days) 45.7%

Oh what a difference a day makes. Scott was the most-auctioned player discussed last week, and I was pretty tepid, calling him a Don’t Bother outside of 5×5. And if I were writing 24 hours ago, I would have pointed out his 2-8 start, his 37.5% K-rate and felt vindicated in my lack of excitement.

Sunday, however, he went with a HR (his first XBH of the year) and a SB (his 3rd of the year), and now his line looks a lot better.

The big thing that stands out to me is that he is hitting the ball very hard. Even before the HR Sunday, his EV was 92, and in addition to the 100 mph HR, he hit another ball 105 Sunday.

But here is where I express my continued caution. While the average EV is up, it’s not like he is mashing balls 110 all of the sudden. Everything he has done so far is very much in-line with the best of what he did last year. The K-rate is down to 25%, but he still hasn’t drawn a walk.

The increased exit velocities are intriguing and I am more intrigued than I was previously, especially in 5×5. He is basically running every chance he gets, and if he becomes a 40-SB guy instead of a 20-30-SB guy (which is where he is mostly projected) that makes a real difference. Like Lopez, we are in a moment where if you don’t add him now, you will miss out if the breakout is real. So maybe it is time to make that move, where you still can.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

Quick Hits

• Luke Jackson – 31.3% – You can just scroll up for my thoughts.
• Landen Roupp – 31.0% – I pushed Roupp last week and now we wait to see what he can do.
• Richard Fitts – 26.7% – I wasn’t too excited for him and said so last week. His first start Sunday was a mixed bag. Six innings, 4 K, 0 BB, and just 3 hits, is pretty good. But he allowed 2 HR which is both bad for most Ottoneu formats and maybe suggests we should continue to be cautious. The 4 strikeouts isn’t that many and with less BABIP luck, this could have been uglier. Next time around, do the HR come down or do the baserunners increase?

Hot Performers

High P/G or P/IP performers over the last two weeks (or, for this week, the last few days), with an eye on players rostered in less than 50% of leagues.

Amed Rosario – 13.8% Rostered, 21.1 P/G

Rosario has had only 5 PA but has a home run and a couple of singles. Maybe the most interesting thing is that the homer came off a righty. For his career, Rosario has a 120 wRC+ vs. LHP and just 85 vs. RHP. He has hit a HR every 44.8 PA vs. LHP and every 66.1 vs. RHP.

Unless we start to see him hit righties more than just this one HR, I am pretty comfortable treating him as a small-side platoon bat. And, to be honest, it seems likely that is how the Nationals will treat him, as well. Now, having said that, there is nothing wrong with a small-side platoon bat in Ottoneu. You just have to decide if your roster has room for that. Is Rosario good enough that you would bench your other options every time he faces a LHSP? If not, you can probably pass. If so, he may help you out.

Zack Littell – 22.4% Rostered, 8.0 P/IP

I am a little surprised Littell is rostered so rarely. He has been over 4.0 P/IP the last two years and pitches for an org that knows how to get the most out of their arms. Being over 4 doesn’t make him an ace, but it is comfortably above replacement level for a SP.

What Littell does well is limit walks, and he did that in his first start of 2025. What he historically hasn’t done is pile up strikeouts, but he managed 7 K in 6 IP this start. I wouldn’t expect that to continue – getting the Rockies has a way of helping pitchers look great – but Littell is worth having on your roster if you need some safe (even if unexciting) pitching depth. And who knows? Maybe the Rays unlocked something more.