Ottoneu Hot Right Now: March 26, 2025

Welcome to another season of Ottoneu Hot (and Cold, but not today) Right Now! I hope you are all excited for this! And if you are not – let me know what would be more useful. We are here to serve.

As with last year, Hot Right Now will cover players being added or auctioned, as well as players performing at a high level. We are always tweaking the format, so please provide feedback!

As in previous years, I am also going to rate each player on an updated version of the scale I used last year. The big change is that I am combining the two tiers (Don’t Go Crazy and Don’t Lose) into one (Don’t Miss Out). I found that last year the “Don’t Lose” tier just never came up. There are free agents I like a lot, but I was never willing to say “yes, go get this guy at all costs, no matter what it does to your team.” So I won’t try. The updated scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as the only cuts I have to make are guys I am okay dropping.
• Don’t Miss Out – I want this player on my roster and I am willing to make an aggressive bid to do get them. How aggressive depends on how much cap space I have and what cuts are available, but I am willing to go beyond the obvious “this guy isn’t helping anyway” cuts and make some tough choices to make this work.

Current Auctions

Victor Scott II – 57 Auctions

On this week’s Keep or Kut podcast, I talked about Scott with my cohost Pete Ball, so you can check that out for some additional insight. The short answer is that in 5×5, the speed matters, but there are real reasons to wonder how often he gets on base and how muc damage he does other than running the bases. Last year he stole 5 bases in 155 PA, a far cry from the 94 he stole in the minors in 2023. What held him up was a .219 OBP. You can’t steal second if you don’t get on first.

The large volume of auctions suggests this isn’t just 5×5 and it is probably driven by a red-hot Spring, with a .492 wOBA. That includes big BB% gains and a K% closer to his minor league numbers than his ugly 2024 MLB performance. He also has 4 HR which is a crazy number for a guy who has never had double digits in a pro season.

I am inclined to believe this is just a hot Spring than that he has gone from a long track record of mediocrity to being a high OBP guy with 15+ HR power.

Verdict: In 5×5, Don’t Stress. I think the gamble is worth it because at least he should run. But in other formats, Don’t Bother.

Landen Roupp – 56 Auctions

Did you know it was Landen with an “e” and not Landon with an “o”? I didn’t and I feel bad – I have been spelling your name wrong, Mr. Roupp, but I will be better.

Roupp wasn’t exactly a star last year, but he wasn’t bad either, putting up a 3.42 FIP mostly in relief. But he had elite K-rates in the minors and didn’t really show that at all in his debut season. His minor league K-rate by year, dating back to 2021, was 45.2%, 35.2%, 35%, and 39.3%. You don’t expect him to just maintain that moving to MLB, but 21.7% wasn’t what we expected, either.

The problem for Roupp is that in the high minors, he’s struggled with walks. You can strike out less than 25% of hitters and succeed. You can walk around 10% of hitters and succeed. The path to doing both is really narrow. But in Arizona, Roupp has faced 46 hitters, struck out 14 (30.4%) and walked 1 (2.2%). That is a recipe for success.

Looking forward, I wouldn’t bank on Roupp being a low-walk guy. His minor league track record doesn’t suggest that is who he is. But if he can keep those strikeouts up, he could beat his high 3’s FIP projections.

Verdict: Don’t Miss Out. I don’t think you need to go spending double digits for Roupp, but if you need pitching, he is an interesting upside play. One note: his first start will likely come at Houston, before he gets Cincinnati at home, and then has to face the Phillies on the road. There might be a buying opportunity in mid-April because the first and third start could be rough.

Quick Hits

• Luke Jackson – 55 auctions – He’s shown flashes of being a useful Ottoneu RP in the past and his spring has been great, so if the price is low, why not?
• Richard Fitts – 49 auctions – His 2024 (and Spring Training) HR/FB rates are likely to regress in a bad way and I don’t see much in his minor league track record that I find exciting.
• Graham Ashcraft – 44 auctions – I legit thought people confused Graham and Braxton and this was just going to be 44 disappointed managers, but no, there is some Graham-to-closer chatter and that is driving this. But I am not buying – maybe the stuff plays up in the pen, but I am very skeptical.

Roster Adds

Ben Rice – Leagues with Adds (7 days) 30.4%

It would be easy to note that Rice’s debut wasn’t good. Or that he was already 24 and 25 years old when he reached Double-A and Triple-A. And that might be enough to write him off. But Rice showed meaningful power in the minors and some of the underlying MLB data hints at that power translating.

Rice had a 110.8 max EV and an average EV over 90. He had a 15.6% barrel rate. Last year, out of 129 qualified hitters, here is the list of hitters with a 15.6% or better barrel rate:

• Aaron Judge 26.9%
• Shohei Ohtani 21.4%
• Juan Soto 19.7%
• Brent Rooker 16.6%
• Oneil Cruz 15.7%
• Kyle Schwarber 15.6%

First of all, we talk all the time about how wild Shohei Ohtani’s numbers are but that Judge barrel rate is bonkers. Second – hey, that is some pretty great company for Rice!

So why was his performance so weak? He needs to improve his 27% K-rate, and that is part of it. He can draw a walk (11.2%) and he can crush the ball, but you need to not K, too. He also had a 14.6% HR/FB rate. That isn’t low, but that list of names above were all above 17% and only Cruz was below 22.9%.  With that barrel rate, he should carry a higher HR/FB rate. And he also had a .186 BABIP, which is so low that I don’t even need to point out that his hard-hit rate should lead to more successful balls in play. Even if he turns into a high-fly-ball, low-BABIP type guy, he is still going to gain 70+ points of BABIP.

A little strikeout improvement, a little regression in that HR/FB rate, a nice jump in BABIP, and you have yourself a very interesting bat, suddenly thrust into a regular role, and with catcher eligibility. Sign me up.

Verdict: Don’t Miss Out.

Hayden Birdsong – Leagues with Adds (7 days) 24.2%

Birdsong is sorta Roupp-y, with one major difference. Like Roupp, he piled up the K’s in the minors. Like Roupp, walks have been an issue. Like Roupp he debuted last year and was not terrible, but wasn’t great either. Like Roupp, he made the Giants Opening Day roster. But, unlike Roupp, he doesn’t have a rotation spot and will be working out of the bullpen.

That doesn’t make necessarily make him less attractive than Roupp, though. It depends a bit what you need. If you need starter innings right now today, Roupp provides those and Birdsong doesn’t. But there aren’t many reasons why you would need starter innings right now today. You can always make up innings later in the season as you track towards your 1500 IP cap. If you are in a head-to-head league, you may need an SP to hit your weekly cap, but in those leagues, a guy like Birdsong potentially giving you multiple innings from the pen is arguably more valuable than a SP.

So the question really comes down to which of the two you believe in more for the overall 2025 season. And, to be honest, I don’t have a strong opinion. I think I prefer Roupp, but I can see a case for Birdsong being the younger pitcher with more upside. But the biggest advantage to Roupp is that we will learn more sooner. Yes, Birdsong will be facing MLB hitters out of the pen, but if he is going in shorter stints, it’s a little less telling than how he looks coming out planning to go 5-6 innings from the jump.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

Quick Hits

• Richard Fitts – 24.2% – You can just scroll up for my thoughts.
• Sean Burke – 19.6% – I like him a bit less than Roupp or Birdsong, so I guess it is fitting he is lower on this list?
• Brett Baty – 19.0% – I am among the managers adding Baty. Legit prospect pedigree, a good spring performance, still young, and has a job with short-term runway to prove he belongs. Plus 2B is a mess.

Hot Performers

For this week, we will look at top Spring Training performers, with an eye on players rostered in less than 50% of leagues.

Ty France – 10.7% Rostered, .543 Spring wOBA

The legitimately good sign is that his strikeout rate is back where it was before a pretty ugly 2024 season. The maybe good sign is that his HR/FB rate is up and he hit two HR. The reason I say “maybe” good is because I am skeptical that France has suddenly found a new level of power. But his barrel rate crept up over 10%, which would be a new career high. His hard-hit rate was over 60% which is not sustainable, but certainly isn’t a bad sign.

Given France’s track record, I am adding him to watchlists, but that is about it. If he continues to hit the ball harder than he has before, I will start to get interested. The challenge is that the bar to providing meaningful value as a 1B-only is high, and he really needs to show that power to surpass that bar.

Cade Povich – 34.1% Rostered, 3.41 Spring FIP

Povich is a bit like both Birdsong and Roupp in that getting up towards his minor league K-rates while limiting walks will determine success. He has a rotation spot, which is good. He is a LHP who had some homer issues last year and now has to face a slightly-shorter LF wall in Camden Yards. And his HR issues last year weren’t new. He has run high HR/FB rates throughout his minor league career.

Honestly, I can’t see using him in his first start (vs. Boston) anyway, so I will probably stay away for now. But I will be watching that first start to see how he performs and he may find himself on some of my rosters after that.