Ottoneu Hot Right Now: June 28th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Colt Keith – 26 current auctions

A recent promotion to AAA and an invitation to the MLB Future’s Game have given Keith some helium in fantasy circles. In his 276 plate appearances in AA he hit 14 home runs with a .325 average. An early May prospect report on the Tigers from Eric Longenhagen has Keith as the number one prospect in the organization. Here’s a snippet from Keith’s write-up:

The hit/power combination he showed when healthy in 2022 (.301/.370/.544) was clearly that of an everyday bat. He produced a 150 wRC+ and was making among the highest rates of hard, airborne contact in the minors when he got hurt, then raked in front of large swaths of scouts in Arizona.

Longenhagen went on to write about Keith’s defensive projections:

a team could live with him playing third base situationally, but it’s not ideal, and Colt is a 30-grade defender right now.

His player page currently lists 2025 as his ETA and that’s a long time to wait for any team that is looking at contention. Keith is a nice stash for a $1 to, maybe, $2 in my mind. If you can sneak him into an auction without competition, do it.

Connor Phillips–  24 current auctions

In 64.2 AA innings pitched, Phillips has some prospect pitching-looking ratios (15.45 K/9, 3.76 BB/9). He was listed as the number eight prospect overall in the Reds organization in a January write-up and his ETA is listed as 2025. In situations like these, I defer to Longenhagen:

The slider is used more often, but Phillips’ spike curveball is his best breaker, a gorgeous, present plus pitch with big-arcing depth that he can reliably land for early-count strikes. Its interplay with his fastball at the upper corner of the strike zone gives both left- and right-handed hitters fits, though release variation makes it a less reliable chase pitch….he looks more like a reliever as far as delivery, athleticism, and feel to pitch are concerned. Even if that’s the case, his stuff quality and repertoire depth would make him a nice multi-inning weapon.

Like Keith, Phillips is a good candidate for a stash in Ottoneu leagues, but I wouldn’t go anywhere above $1 at this point.

Brock Stewart –  22 current auctions

It is likely his nearly non-existent ERA (0.70) has Stewart becoming fantasy relevant, but he was placed on the IL with elbow soreness yesterday (6/26/23). Stewart is a comeback story as he hadn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2019 before this season and is currently in his age 31 season. The righty has been operating in a middle reliever/setup role and has recorded seven holds and two wins this season. He has experienced serious velocity gains with nearly six MPH added to his fastball (Pitch Info) since his 2019 season. He also completely changed his repertoire by adding a sweeper and a cutter, and throwing more changeups. He also has excellent Stuff+ numbers with an overall score of 121 and a 155 on his slider. He’s a great reliever to add as long as he can work through his elbow issues, but the injury is probably not a surprise considering how different his arm is working this season. The one thing to be leery of, besides the injury, is his above-average BB/9 of 3.86 (relievers, 3.71). His K/9, however, is well above average at 12.27 (relievers, 9.17).

Tommy Pham –  20 current auctions

Pham went on a hot streak in June and brought his batting average up to .293. Here are his batting average monthly splits in 2023:

Mar/Apr – .196
May – .250
June – .293

But, it does appear that he reached a peak and may be headed back down to earth:

Among Mets hitters with at least 150 plate appearances, of which there are 10, Pham has the third-highest wRC+ at 116 behind Pete Alonso (130) and Brandon Nimmo (131). Pham has consistently been holding down the left-field position for the Mets and looks like the everyday player there.

Tommy Kahnle – 19 current auctions

Welcome to the very crowded closer committee Tommy Kahnle! He joins four other relievers who are expected to share closing duties according to RosterResource. Regardless, Kahnle has not allowed a single run, earned or unearned, since his return to the pen in early June. His tiny 0.84 BB/9 is outstanding and he is striking out over 10 batters per nine innings. Now for the realness; his left-on-base percentage is 100% and his BABIP is .167. His FIP (1.57) is very different from his (3.21) xFIP and his ERA (0.00) is different from his xERA (1.57). I would still take that xERA all day every day so you can bet that while Kahnle is going to regress, it should still be under the fluke threshold. While his overall Stuff+ of 101 ranks 12th among all Yankee relievers this season, his Stf+ SL score ranks third best. He’s worth a low-dollar add, but pay close attention to how he is utilized and how far he regresses as he accumulates more innings.

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Roster Adds

Yainer Diaz – Add% Change (7 Days) – 28.2%

The rookie catcher has hit seven home runs in 40 major league games so far this season. He has also played first base this season, making his positional flexibility appealing. In early June, Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin placed him as the number two prospect in the organization, and here is a good clip:

Big-bodied catchers with potent bats, like Travis d’Arnaud, Tyler Flowers and Diaz, are the sorts who tend to take a leap later in their 20s, which is the expectation here.

Diaz is certainly worth the add but only with the awareness that he probably won’t be accumulating everyday player type of numbers this season.

Maikel Garcia – Add% Change (7 Days) – 31.73%

If you need stolen bases and average, Garcia is your man. In 46 games played in the big leagues this season, Garcia is hitting .273 and has stolen 11 bags. He’s only walking 7.7% of the time, but with the high average and his speed, he has an above-average (.319) OBP (.328). His SS/3B eligibility makes him a flexible play, but he’s batting in the middle of a not-so-potent Kansas City Royals lineup. Back in May, his FanGraphs Royals prospect rank was listed as 11th. Don’t expect much power as he is slugging .376, below the league average of .409.

Henry Davis – Add% Change (7 Days) – 8.34%

I wouldn’t expect a prospect catcher like Davis to be available in many Ottoneu leagues at this point. He debuted on June 19th and has hit .276 with one home run so far. He has played in eight games and has at least one hit in six of those games. Read his “Prospect TLDR”:

Prospects TLDR: Davis has huge, plus-plus raw power, and will be a star if he can stay behind the plate or a solid everyday first baseman if he can’t.

This season in AA, Davis came very close to walking (32) more than he struck out (35) and so far in the big leagues he has done a decent job of maintaining that discipline with a 6.1% BB%. Davis is going to be a good player and if he somehow hasn’t been gobbled up in your league, add him now.

Kyle Hendricks –  Add% Change (7 Days) – %

The man with a 4.67 K/9 and a fastball velocity of 87.7 has been good for ratios in roto-leagues, good for points totals in points leagues, and good for wins (3) where they are recorded. In points leagues, he is a 5.26 P/IP pitcher. But, there really hasn’t been much change in his profile at all since last season’s 4.80 ERA mark. This season his ERA of 2.60 is expected to be higher (xERA 4.18) and somewhere around 4.50 feels much more likely at season’s end. Still, that’s not bad for an affordable starter. He has shown that he can maintain a low ERA, but it is so dependent on how often hitters are putting the ball in play:

If he can continue to locate his changeup and get groundballs with his sinker, he’s a sub 4.50 ERA pitcher.

Ryan O’Hearn – Add% Change (7 Days) – %

O’Hearn’s groundball rate is down, his flyball rate is up, he is swinging at pitches outside of the zone less often and he’s done damage on breaking balls. His Barrel% is above his career average and he’s hitting the ball hard with more regularity than ever. The biggest issue is that Ryan Mountcastle is rehabbing in the minors and will likely be taking the 1B position back. Furthermore, the O’s are bringing up prospects seemingly on a weekly basis and O’Hearn may not be the long-term priority. Still, you can’t argue with his team-leading .559 slugging percentage, his third-best wRC+, and fourth-best xwOBA. O’Hearn is likely in a platoon situation as a lefty more likely to hit against right-handed pitching.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Tony Kemp (6.90 P/G) has hit .282 in the month of June and has done most of that against left-handed pitchers. He’s been hitting in the leadoff spot for Oakland and while his season .182 batting average is not roster-able, his BABIP of .192 and expected stats all being significantly higher than his actual stats, show that he will get better. Carlos Santana (5.91 P/G) has had four multi-hit games in his last 15 games. On top of that, he hit three home runs in that span. His BB% and K% have not been trending in the right direction and his expected stats are all lower than his actuals, so take caution. Jake McCarthy (5.83 P/G) is starting to get the bat going since he was brought back up to the major leagues, hitting .286 in the month of June. His expected stats are right in line with his actuals and if he can keep it up, he’s likely to work his way up in the order from where he’s currently hitting (~9th) in a potent lineup.

Yusei Kikuchi (6.22 P/IP) has had three starts with six or more strikeouts and two or fewer walks. He has given up two home runs in his last three starts, but he has limited walks and hits. It’s possible that low BABIP has fueled his success, but he’s worth a look. Martin Perez (4.58 P/IP) has also done a decent job of limiting walks and hits in his last three starts, but like Kikuchi has run really low BABIPs. He also has not struck many batters out, accumulating only nine in his last three starts. He has, however, gone six or more innings in his last three starts. Jake Irvin (5.00 P/IP) has also limited home runs in his last three starts, giving up only one. He has kept runners off the bases with a 1.14 WHIP and his 7.56 K/9 has been above his season mark of 6.99. Unlike Kikuchi and Perez, he hasn’t had BABIP luck on his side. The 26-year-old righty is the number four starter in Washington and could be a good source of innings moving forward, but there’s not a lot of fantasy juice to speak of.