Ottoneu Hot Right Now: June 19

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As Chad Young has done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Current Auctions

Ben Rice – 157 current auctions

After not having particularly high auction counts last week, we start this week with an absolute monster. Ben Rice is rostered in 11.25% of leagues right now. That number is going to increase, by a lot, in the next day or two.

Rice is the recently-promoted, catcher-eligible first baseman for the New York Yankees, stepping into the spot left vacant by Anthony Rizzo. With Rizzo out at least a month, Rice has a nice opportunity to grab hold of the 1B job. And given how bad Rizzo was last year and how much worse he has been this year, it’s not crazy to imagine that he isn’t promised anything when his arm heals.

Rice isn’t exactly a prospect. The FanGraphs prospect team slapped a 35+ grade on him, which isn’t particularly exciting. But the lack of prospect-hype is heavily related to having an intriguing bat with no obvious position. He is a catcher by trade, but I can’t really find any prospector who expects him to stick behind the plate. The Yankees seem to be learning that, as well. Last year, across three levels, he made 37 starts at C, 18 at DH, and 17 at 1B. This year, across two levels, he has made 28 starts at C, 22 at 1B, and 10 at DH. He went from (barely) primarily a C to having more games at 1B/DH this year. And now he has been called up to play 1B. The offensive quality needed to be an exciting 1B prospect is very high.

But from an Ottoneu perspective, that may not matter much. Rice is catcher-eligible, and that means his bad defense doesn’t really hurt us. Even better, he played enough catcher in the minors that he has that eligibility locked up for 2025, as well. So all he has to do is be good enough offensively to stay in the Yankees lineup and we can happily plug him into our catcher spot daily.

And that bat looks pretty good. He has 35 HR over 600 PA the last two years and hits left-handed, making Yankee Stadium an awfully attractive home. Strikeouts have never been a major issue and he is able to draw a walk. The biggest concern for me is his age – his first looks at the high minors came last year and this year at age 24 and 25. That’s not crazy old – we aren’t talking about a Joey Meneses-style age-30 breakout or anything – but it’s not young and it does give me a little pause.

The other thing that gives me some reason for caution is that the Yankees simply aren’t likely to accept “decent” offense at 1B long-term. If he really hits, there is an opportunity there. Anything less than that, and they may look to replace him. As fantasy managers, we will gladly take a below-average 1B bat at C, but we need the Yankees to keep running him out there for that to work.

But I think the upside – a quality, 1B-caliber bat with at least 1.5 seasons of C eligibility – is so high, that I still want to make aggressive bids here. I don’t think I have used a “don’t lose” verdict yet, and I am really tempted to do so here, but I am not sure I can.

If you have $50 free and want to bid $20 to just lock him up, I totally get that and I can understand why, but that is a “Don’t Go Crazy” bid. To be “Don’t Lose,” we need to be talking about a willingness to cut a useful piece just to make room for him, and I still think he is more speculation that guaranteed production.

Verdict: Don’t Go Crazy

DJ Herz – 67 current auctions

After spending so much space on Rice, we need to speed things up here. Six months ago, Herz was a middling prospect who had no fantasy hype because he was merely okay in the Double-A, striking out plenty of hitters but walking far too many. Three weeks ago, he was a middling prospect pitcher who looked like he was overmatched in Triple-A. A few days later he seemed to have figured something out, making a brilliant start and earning a promotion.

Even a week ago, though, he looked like a guy whose walks would follow him to MLB while the strikeouts weren’t translating. Then he struck out 13 of 19 hitters, allowing 0 walks and just 1 hit, in a 6 inning work of art and now he is in this space.

Pitching is (as always) at a premium so I get wanting to take a shot on a guy who just did that but I am not willing to go overboard for a guy with major control issues and limited prospect pedigree based on a single start vs. the Marlins.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

Chad Green – 57 current auctions

On the one hand, he has been at best decent this year, arguably worse, from an Ottoneu points perspective, and his underlying performance suggests things might get worse before they get better. On the other, he was just named closer-for-now in Toronto. In 5×5, that makes him an immediate add, easily justifying a “Don’t Go Crazy” label. In other formats?

Verdict: Don’t Bother.

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Roster Adds

Spencer Horwitz – Add% Change (7 Days) – 37.5%

I was pretty “meh” on Horwitz last week and since then he has added 2B eligibility (yay!) and posted a 98 wRC+ (boo!). The K’s are up, the BB’s are down, the ISO is literally zero (though he did hit a double Tuesday night, so that will go up). I just don’t see this working out.

David Hamilton – Add% Change (7 Days) – 35.6%

I was more excited about him a week ago, especially in 5×5, but his bat hasn’t really done much over the last week. He has, however, stolen five bases (and a sixth came Tuesday night), so the 5×5 value is still pouring in. Plus, while SB aren’t huge in Ottoneu points leagues, stealing five bases across five starts in a week will give your P/G a nice boost.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Royce Lewis – 10.6 P/G

This guy just crushes, all the time, except when he gets hurt, which is the other thing he does all the time. But he is just an absolute must-start when he is healthy.

Logan O’Hoppe – 9.3 P/G

He was one of my favorite catchers to target before the season, and he started off red hot with a 150 wRC+ through his first 78 PA. Then he had 55 PA of a 28 wRC+, before posting a 160 wRC+ over his last 98 PA. He appears he might be streaky, but I am going to stick with this guy.

Hunter Brown and Taj Bradley – 7.3 P/IP

I am combining them because they put up the exact same P/IP and because my comment is the same for them both: we know the talent is legit and if this is the breakout we have been expecting, you better buy fast before it is too late.