Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 5th, 2023
The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:
- Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
- Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
- Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Current Auctions
Oscar Colás – 43 current auctions
The 24-year-old White Sox outfielder was recalled from AAA for the fourth of July. He had one hit, one strikeout, and was caught stealing. He was up with the club to start the year and was sent back to the minors for seasoning after a .211/.265/.276 performance in 84 plate appearances in 25 games. The corresponding move made by the White Sox sent Clint Frazier down to the minors and Colás will most likely take over the right-field spot, but his playing time could be limited to a platoon spot as a left-handed hitter facing right-handed pitching. Here’s a snippet from Eric Longenhagen’s December 2022 write-up on White Sox prospects:
there are justifiable questions about whether he’ll hit enough to get to it despite his surface-level performance. In this case, it’s less about barrel control issues (aside from his inability to lift pitches on the outer third, Colas has fair in-zone feel for contact) and more about chase, an aspect of Colas’ game that was tough to know about entering the year. He only walked at a 7% clip in Japan and had a very expansive approach throughout 2022, slugging and BABIP’ing his way through it.
In his short time in the majors, Colás has an O-Swing% of 43.7%, well above the major league average of 31.6%. He has, however, absolutely smoked a ball at 113.1 MPH and that will tell you why he is a stash pickup in Ottonue leagues.
Cristopher Sánchez – 22 current auctions
Acquired from the Rays for outfielder Curtis Mead, Sánchez now has a handful of major league starts and relief appearances under his belt. After a somewhat rough start against the Rockies at the end of April, the 26-year-0ld lefty was sent back down to AAA. He was then recalled in mid-June and has started three games since. He is mostly a three-pitch pitcher (Sinker/Changeup/Slider) and his fastball sits around 93 MPH. That’s usually not a combination that provides a ton of fantasy value from a strikeout perspective. However, in his four 2023 starts, Sánchez has a good 9.31 K/9, compared to the average of 8.44 K/9 among MLB starters in 2023, and it’s paired with a decent 1.86 BB/9 (2023 MLB starters average: 3.05 BB/9). Statcast considers his ERA of 3.26 a little too high when considering his xERA of 3.10. He projects as a mid-rotation starter for the Phillies the rest of the way.
Will Benson – 20 current auctions
Likely platooned as a left-handed batter versus right-handed pitching, Benson’s slash line of .282/.378/.447 is appealing to fantasy managers, particularly the above-average slugging percentage in Ottoneu points leagues. Beware of his batting average coming down, however, as his BABIP sits at .366 and each of his AVG, SLG, and wOBA are above their expected marks by statcast. Still, his barrel rate of 8.1% is right at the league average, and if he can continue to swing at pitches out of the zone at a very low 21.2% as he has done in 2023 and can find a way to increase his Z-Contact%, he’ll be on the up and up. Still, playing time will be an issue as he just can’t hit left-handed pitching or at least, isn’t being given the opportunity.
Nick Gonzales – 20 current auctions
In 11 major league games in 2023, Gonzalez’s slash line sits at .314/.359/.629. He was a first-round pick in 2020 for the Pirates and the knock on him was that he struck out too often. Between AA and AAA his strikeout rate stayed up around 28%, but in his time in the majors, he’s brought it down to 23.1%. Expect that to go up. Players don’t typically show up to the big leagues and stop striking out. Regardless, he’s done damage on fastballs so far this year and his O-Swing% (28.4%) is below average (31.6%). Pay close attention to how Gonzalez adapts once pitchers start to adjust.
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 – 15 current auctions
Ryu threw in a rehab start and is starting to work his way back from a UCL injury that led to Tommy John surgery. Right now, Alek Manoah has been scheduled to pitch in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has been having a terrible season. Ryu, age 36, will have a lot of work to do to stay in the rotation, but it seems likely he could be back in the major leagues by the end of July or the start of August.
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Roster Adds
Patrick Bailey – Add% Change (7 Days) – 19.87%
Bailey has been operating as the everyday catcher with Blake Sabol filling in from time to time at the position. The Giants currently have Joey Bart in AAA and Bailey’s unbelievable slash line (.302/.331/.516) is the reason why. Is it really unbelievable, though? His .393 BABIP would tell you yes but his statcast expect versus actual stats would tell you no:
AVG: .302 xAVG: .304
SLG: .516 xSLG: .511
wOBA: .360 xwOBA: .368
Bailey is a switch-hitter with a brilliant line-drive approach (LD%: 31.5% vs MLB average: 20.2%). He has good plate discipline as he swings out of the zone less often than average, swings and misses less often than average, and has positive pVals on every pitch but the cutter. Bailey seems to be a well-rounded hitter at a premium position.
Jonathan Aranda – Add% Change (7 Days) – 16.02%
With monster numbers at AAA this season, the 25-year-old has to get another shot in the major leagues at some point soon. His slash line of .348/.458/.605 with 16 home runs and a BB% of 15.4% leaves nothing left to prove. However, with depth such as Brandon Lowe, Taylor Walls, Harold Ramírez, Yandy Díaz, and Isaac Paredes, there just isn’t anywhere for Aranda to go right now. His 1B/2B/3B eligibility is great, but that’s where everybody else on the Rays plays apparently. Aranda’s MiLB options (reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining) count is down to two, so something will have to happen soon. If he’s not already taken in your league, he is worth the add at a prospect price.
José Soriano – Add% Change (7 Days) – 14.74%
The 24-year-old right-handed pitcher has worked his way into a setup role out of the bullpen. In leagues that count holds, Soriano has been a decent source in his 10 appearances as he has accumulated seven. Just a few weeks ago, Soriano hit the prospect number six spot in Eric Longenhagen’s Angels Prospect Rankings and he wrote:
Soriano’s stuff is great. His sinking fastball touches 100 and he has a plus-plus curveball that averages a whopping 86 mph. It’s a dominant reliever’s two-pitch mix undercut by Soriano’s mechanical stiffness, which impacts his control.
Soriano’s ratios (14.59 K/9, BB/9 5.11) are a little crazy. For now, if your team could benefit from holds and strikeouts while being ok with absorbing runs and walks, Soriano is a good addition.
Coby Mayo – Add% Change (7 Days) – 13.14%
Mayo is likely very close to AAA as his AA slash line of .320/.436/.632 seems ready for the next level. Mayo was number 26 in the FanGraphs 2023 Top 100 Prospects list and recently jumped into MLB’s top 100 as well. Here’s a bit from the FanGraphs writeup:
Baltimore has tried him some at second and first base, but because he’ll show you a 70 arm on his best throws and runs pretty well, right field continues to feel like the best long-term fit even though Mayo hasn’t played there yet. The toolset to profile as a 50 in right is arguably already in place, and there’s a chance Mayo ends up with 70 raw at peak and becomes a star out there.
Mayo is a hold and see what happens in AAA. The Orioles have a lot of prospects already waiting and raking in AAA, so Mayo will likely have to wait a while before getting his own call. But, if he keeps hitting the way he has in AA, he might make it tough for management to keep him down.
Paul Blackburn – Add% Change (7 Days) – 11.54%
The number one starter in Oakland can mean a few things in the 2023 season. Blackburn has made seven starts and has reached six innings only once, but he has shown a slight nudge in fastball velocity and has a nice curveball. The added fastball velo, low as it is, hasn’t produced results from a pVal perspective as his -4.5 value has been hurting his ERA which has jumped to 4.50. Still, xERA thinks he should be more like 3.59 and his K/9 sits at 10.00. Being on the Athletics, he’s not likely to accumulate a lot of wins and he projects to be somewhere around a 1.14 HR/9. Maybe he’s a good accumulator who can limit home runs in points leagues, but I don’t see much of a reason to add him to any of my teams.
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Hot Performers
Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.
J.P. Crawford (9.3 P/G) is on a hot streak with three home runs, a BB% equal to his K% (18.8%), and a .316 average in the last 14 days. Put this man in your lineups as his wRC+ and wOBA are at an all-time high and will probably only have one direction to go soon. Don’t look now if you dropped José Abreu (9.2 P/G) because he is heating up. He’s hit three home runs, is batting .366, and has started to hit the ball hard once again:
Add Garrett Cooper (8.75 P/G) to the three-homer and high average (.378) in the last 14 days group. He’s had consistent playing time between the 1B and DH spots and has an above-average season barrel rate (10.7%), but his season BB% of 5.8% and K% of 28.8% should call out a warning.
Griffin Canning (6.3 P/IP) has been a good points accumulator in his last two starts despite giving up five earned runs and one home run in his most recent outing. He has a combined 16 strikeouts in his last two starts with four walks and only one home run. Ryne Nelson (6.2 P/IP) has picked up twelve strikeouts in his last two starts while giving up only one home run and walking three. JP Sears (5.2 P/IP) has three starts under his belt in the last 14 days and accumulated 17 strikeouts in that time. He did give up two home runs, four walks, and seven earned runs.