Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 26th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Chas McCormick – 28 current auctions

Today on McCormick’s FanGraphs player page you will find the following from RotoWire:

McCormick went 2-for-3 with a home run, a double, a walk and six total RBI in Monday’s 10-9 win over the Rangers. (7/25/2023)

That’s a big night. But, McCormick has also had a big July. He’s hit six home runs, stolen three bases, and accumulated 12 runs and 21 RBI while batting .355. This dude is on fire. If you run to auction or the waiver wire to pick him, it’s possible you’ve missed the bulk of this hot streak:

McCormick is basically just doing everything better in July, but it’s really the huge increase in ISO and SLG that stands out the most:

Chas showed some of this pop in 2021 for a period of time, so it is not unfounded. We should see regression, no doubt, but by how much? According to vertical bat path and vertical approach angle scores from SwingGraphs that measure swing adjustments correlated with power, McCormick has showcased a significant change in the physical features of his swing. In addition, he’s greatly improved his ability to hit the slider going from a PitchInfo pVal of -10.9 in 2022 to a current 4.0 in 2023.

Let’s head back down to earth a bit. With this added power in the form of SLG and ISO, McCormick is somehow hitting the ball hard less often at 37.1% compared to his career 41.6% and because of that, Statcast is raising flags in the expected stats department:

AVG: .282 xAVG: .243

SLG: .531 xSLG: .464

wOBA: .385 xwOBA: .349

Chas’ recent success, little worry about playing time, and measurable skills changes make him a solid add where he is available.

Kevin Ginkel –  27 current auctions

With 39.0 IP in 2023 for the Diamondbacks, Ginkel has surpassed his highest mark as a major league reliever. His 2.31 ERA is well below his 3.20 xERA and his go-to reliever ratios (7.85 K/9, 2.54 BB/9) are not super impressive. He has collected three saves and three wins and has, according to RosterResource, usurped Scott McGough as the closer in Arizona. Does that mean you should be rostering him? His control has always been an issue, but he’s improved to have BB/9 and K/BB marks better than average in 2023, and if he can keep his control in check, why not? The Diamondbacks have certainly played the hot hand in the closer role in 2023 going from Miguel Castro to Andrew Chafin to Scott McGough so putting Ginkel in your lineup with a “set it and forget it” type of strategy is not recommended.

Daysbel Hernández –  25 current auctions

The 26-year-old righty was called up to appear for the Braves on July 23rd and he impressed with three strikeouts while facing four batters. He did give up a hit, but otherwise showcased the strikeout ability that he has been known for. However, his second appearance did not go the same as two days later (July 25th) he gave up two hits, a walk, and a home run while only striking out one. That brings his two-inning major league career ERA up to 9.00. He projects as a middle reliever. He’s a good player to keep an eye on, but I don’t think he’s worth rostering at this point.

Chase Silseth –  24 current auctions

You should probably just read Jeff Zimmerman’s report on Silseth from his recent Big Kid Adds (Week 18). Zimmerman points out his improvements through the minors but his continued struggles with throwing strikes. The 23-year-old righty has a 5.55 BB/9 in two games started. He’s a young talent who fits nicely into an Ottonue roster as a potential keep, wait, and see for the right price.

Sal Frelick – 23 current auctions

Frelick was instantly productive in his first 14 major league plate appearances. It’s likely that he is already rostered in most Ottoneu leagues as he was listed as a Top 100 Prospect (#68) back in February. His player page “Prospect TLDR” states:

Frelick has a hit-over-power offensive skill set that fits in center field, where we’re projecting he’ll improve defensively over time.

and David Laurila asked him for more specifics about the nature of his swing back in February. His prospect report comps him to Brandon Nimmo and Tony Kemp and most of that comes from his potential to be a very good defensive centerfielder. Does that help your Ottoneu team? Well, he certainly gave you a boost in his first major league stint if you were rostering him. If he’s available, pick him up and see what happens but don’t pay too much.

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Roster Adds

Abner Uribe – Add% Change (7 Days) – 23.08%

The 23-year-old righty projects as a middle reliever with serious strikeout potential. From his 2021 through 2023 minor league seasons (A, AA, AAA), Uribe’s K/9 never dipped below 12.00. So far in the big leagues, he only has 5.2 IP but the Stuff+ on his fastball is at 151 which is the best among Brewer pitchers. His slider Stuff+ is equally impressive at 128. He has a lot of potential and could be a great addition now, especially if his stuff brings him into more high-leverage roles.

Tim Mayza – Add% Change (7 Days) – 15.06%

Mayza has been great for those counting holds. He has 14 on the year. Add to that his excellent 1.30 ERA (2.99 xERA) and you’ve got yourself an 8.05 P/IP player whose median salary is $1. He’s also performing well from a number of standpoints as he’s decreased his BB%, increased his K/BB, given up a career-low 0.26 HR/9 and he’s done it all with a sinker/slider combo.

Wilmer Flores –  Add% Change (7 Days) – 14.11%

Wilmer! Good to see ya. While he’s been in a projected platoon vs LHP as a right-handed batter for the Giants, he’s still accumulated 245 plate appearances in 2023. He’s batting .292 and slugging .534 with a 139 wRC+. There isn’t a whole lot of change in his profile and he’s likely found some recent success that could add some points to your fantasy totals if you are willing to keep a close eye on his playing time and performance.

Michael Lorenzen – Add% Change (7 Days) – 11.86%

Lorenzen reached the 100 IP milestone with the Tigers this season for the second time in his career. He’s been a good accumulator with a decent 3.49 ERA (4.20 xERA) and he has nearly cut his 2020-2022 BB/9 in half. In addition, his HR/9 is below one, and while hitters are getting the ball down (.258 BABIP) at a low rate that could suggest he’s been getting lucky, he has also changed his repertoire some, dropping the cutter and throwing more sliders.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

JJ Bleday (7 P/G) has worked his way up to a .242 batting average in the month of July and his wOBA and wRC+ have both increased in each month of the season. He has three home runs, and a stolen base, and is slugging .489 in his last 14 games. He is the Athletics’ everyday centerfield and is typically batting in the top half of the order. Don’t look now, but Josh Bell (6.8 P/G) is on a seven-game hit streak. Like Bleday, his batting average has increased in each month of the season along with his wOBA. He has three home runs and is slugging .617 in his last 14 games.

Besides a four-run game on July 19th against Houston, Austin Gomber (4.4 P/IP) only gave up two runs in each of his four starts prior and he shut out the Nationals (they did score one unearned run) last night. Gomber has given up three home runs in his last six starts, but he did surpass the 100 IP mark for the season during that time. Dean Kremer (4.4 P/IP) continues to get the job done for the O’s as he made three starts in the last 14 days with a 3.57 ERA. He threw up one stinker against the Dodgers where he coughed up two home runs and was tagged with five earned runs, but he has been a 3.22 P/IP Ottoneu starter all season.