Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 19th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Paul Skenes – 132 current auctions

Wyatt Langford – 65 current auctions

Putting these two together is probably not fair, but I am writing the article so I get to make those kinds of decisions. But this is just the start of a period of time in which all the top draft picks will be signed and many will go up for auction almost immediately. I am planning to write about newly drafted players in more detail tomorrow, so look for that, but I couldn’t really ignore this.

So here is the short version of my advice: These guys are probably not worth whatever they cost at auction right now. They are hot commodities, available on the market, and we haven’t seen them exposed by professional opposition yet. Some of these first-round picks will be stars! Some will have an impact as soon as 2025 and maybe someone comes up at some point next season. And some will be busts who will never see the majors or will have the shine worn off before they get there.

And you’re kidding yourself if you are confident you know who is who. So in bidding on the newly signed draftees, keep in mind they are very unlikely to ever play meaningful baseball for your fantasy team. If you can get them cheap enough, they have enough upside to justify the low-probability gamble. If you want to overpay just to control the market and cut them in the off-season, that is fine, too. But when Skenes goes for $13 in your league, don’t be surprised, and don’t be stressed. You’re better off letting someone else burn that cash.

Zack Gelof –  50 current auctions

Gelof was called up a few days ago and the high count of current auctions tells me that a number of managers saw his hot start and decided to take a shot at adding him. For context, that hot start was four games and 16 PA with a .354 wOBA thanks to a .400 BABIP despite a 31.3% K-rate. As of when I am writing this, however, he has had four more plate appearances Tuesday night and gone 0-4 with two strikeouts and now that wOBA is .283 and the K% is 35%. Life comes at you fast.

The lesson here is not that you shouldn’t sign Gelof cause he isn’t good. It’s that you need to dig deeper and when you do, he is pretty interesting. After a strong showing in Double-A in 2022, Gelof got a 38-PA taste of Triple-A last year and looked great, then came back this year and did more of the same. Yes, the hitter-friendly environment makes the raw numbers a little hard to read, but a 122 wRC+ over 308 PA for a guy with MI eligibility is not bad.

Gelof flashes good power and has shown he can draw a walk, two of the primary skills you want in an Ottoneu bat. But strikeouts aren’t a new issue for him. He has been flirting with a 30% K-rate throughout his time in the high minors. In the A’s top prospects article, Tess Taruskin even noted that “his strikeout rates keep him just outside the top 100 at this stage.”

Gelof basically has two paths to fantasy success: 1) cut back on the strikeouts enough to stop being a liability or 2) walk and hit enough homers to be a poor-man’s Joey Gallo with 2B eligibility (he has also stolen double-digit bases each year, and is up to 20 in Triple-A and two more in MLB this year). There is also the secret third door behind which lies elite power and walk rates AND an improve K-rate, but that is a path to stardom, not just success.

I have added Gelof in a couple of leagues but not been willing to bid over $3. I think he is more of a lottery ticket than a helpful asset to your team, and if he needs power to carry him, his home park won’t do him any favors. Watch the K-rate though – if it starts to come down, buy.

Nick Pivetta –  41 current auctions

Pivetta has been working out of the pen most of the season and has lately transitioned from middle reliever to bulk guy behind an opener. And he has been brilliant in that role. His last three outings, he has totaled 15 IP, 27 K, 5 BB, 2 HR, and 109.8 points (7.32 P/IP). The most recent of those appearances was a 13 K, 64.4 point, 6 inning showing against Oakland and likely spurred each and every one of these 42 auctions.

If you are in a H2H league, I would be willing to make a decent-sized bid on Pivetta. As long as he is a follower (though Boston does seem like they plan to move him to a traditional starting role eventually), he is extremely valuable in that format.

In other formats, I am fine speculating on Pivetta but just remember who we are dealing with. Pivetta has had runs like this 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022.

This run looks a bit better. It may be longer-lasting. Maybe he has figured something out and turned a corner. But if the next spike in that roller coaster graph is above 8.00 again and comes as soon as August, don’t be surprised. Enjoy the hot streak, but be ready to move on.

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Roster Adds

Zack Gelof – Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 49.04%

He was covered a few paragraphs ago and nothing has changed since then.

Joel Payamps – Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 29.81%

Payamps had an ugly start to the year in Milwaukee’s bullpen. As of April 22, he had a 4.00 ERA and a 5.62 FIP and really nothing looked good. He was walking too many, striking out too few, and had given up two HR already. Around that time, two things changed:

1. He started using his slider more often, raising it from 36.2% usage in April to 40.9% in May, to 47.5% in June and 48.3% so far in July.
2. His velocity increased. His sinker and four-seamer both averaged 94.4 MPH in April. In May they were at 95.9 and 96.0, respectively. In June they were up to 96.0 and 96.2, and in July they were down a bit to 95.6 and 95.9 – still more than a tick up vs. April.

In April, he had a 17.3% K-rate, and 5.3% BB-rate, and 1.46 HR/9. Since the start of May, he has a 34.4% K-rate, a 4.1% BB-rate, and 0.84 HR/9. So far in July he has 10 K in 7 IP and has not allowed a walk or a homer. He has been lights out. While everyone else was excited about Abner Uribe’s heat, I picked up Payamps where I could. If he is still an option for you, go get him.

Jacob deGrom – Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 23.72%

Degrom came up in last week’s Hot Right Now, and there is nothing new to report.

Cristopher Sánchez – Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 21.79%

He also came up last week (and the week before) and in his last start he was victimized by two HR vs. the Padres, but otherwise looked decent, with 5 K and 1 BB in 5 IP. I am still interested in him as a guy who can pick up some innings in the right matchups.

Abner Uribe – Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 19.87%

My big caution on Uribe when covering him last week was that he looked like he would walk too many hitters for his stuff to matter. In 3.1 MLB IP he has yet to allow a walk. It is just 3.1 IP and it doesn’t change my advice but it is a very faint good sign.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Over the last two weeks, most of the leading Ottoneu scorers are highly-rostered players, as you would expect. But the 15th highest-scoring hitter, with 81 points in just 8 games is Chas McCormick, who is available in 47.12% of leagues. And it isn’t just these two weeks. In limited time this year (just 55 games played), McCormick has a 147 wRC+ and 6.16 P/G. He is playing more lately, having started nine straight for the Astros. McCormick isn’t quite that good, but his high line-drive rate, propensity to draw walks, and strong barrel rate – all of which have held over his career – suggest he should be rostered more widely than he is.

On the pitching side, your fifth highest-scorer is JP Sears, with 94 points of 18.2 IP. That’s just over 5.0 P/IP. Sears is rostered in just 64.42% of leagues, but his overall season line of 3.8 P/IP doesn’t offer much reason to get excited. But maybe something has changed and allowed Sears to turn a corner recently!

Well, over those three starts, his K-rate is down, though his walk rate is, as well. His HR/FB has dropped to 7.1% (it is 12.6% on the season, as a whole). His BABIP, which has been low all year (.234) is down to .184. That isn’t super inspiring, either. But he is using his fastball less and his slider more, getting more grounders, and giving up less hard contact. It’s not a lot to go on – it is not enough for me – but it is something to watch moving forward. If he can keep limiting hard contact and increasing his ground ball rate by continuing with an adjusted pitch mix, I might get interested. But not yet.