Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 17, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Current Auctions

Xavier Edwards – 47 current auctions

Auction activity is a bit low during the All-Star Break (which might, in fact, make it a good time to start auctions while folks are paying less attention) but Edwards has attracted at least some attention. Once a 50 FV prospect who showed up on top 100 lists, by the time Edwards debuted in 2023, he had taken a step back and settled in as a no-power, contact-first bat with decent defense and good speed. After his poor debut, Edwards was back in Triple-A to start 2024, but in 15 games in MLB, he has been impressive.

True to his scouting reports and minor league performance, the power numbers aren’t great. It’s not just the 0 HR, or the .074 ISO. His EV (86.3 mph) and max EV (102.2 mph, though he did have one at 104.5 last year) are not inspiring. His barrel- and hard-hit-rates (4.5% and 20.5%, respectively), are low, as well. And he isn’t really hitting any line drives, (13.6%) which can help make up for weak contact.

But he isn’t striking out much (16.4%) and he is drawing walks (11.5%).

And he has a .432 BABIP. Without many line drives, this seems a bit surprising, but maybe we can dig deeper and find an explanation.

One way to post a high BABIP is to hit so many line drives, that your batted ball mix pulls up your BABIP. That isn’t what is happening here. Instead, Edwards is seeing a higher BABIP on all of his batted ball types. And we know he doesn’t hit the ball hard – but maybe that is working to his advantage somehow?

 

Perhaps! At least with fly balls, his inability to make hard contact may be contributing to his higher BABIP. But even if we look at all fly balls 90 mph or less, we would expect a .136 BABIP, not .313. In fact, given the numbers on line drives and grounders (as well as the 76-105 mph FB), it seems we would expect his BABIP to be lower than average, not higher.

Maybe his speed is helping? That could be – speed can’t help BABIP on FB and LD, but it can certainly turn grounders into infield hits. But his infield hit rate (4.5%) is lower than league average (6.5%). So his BABIP is inflated by balls in the air finding grass and balls on the ground finding holes. That does not feel sustainable. He will steal bases, so in 5×5, by all means, use him for those wheels. But other than that, this doesn’t look enticing.

Verdict: Don’t Bother.

Michael Toglia – 45 current auctions

Hey, look, it’s a Rockies corner bat hitting a bunch of dingers! He’s also striking out a ton (31.3%) and has posted a negative fWAR to date (-0.1). That fWAR doesn’t matter for fantasy except that the Rockies have two bats on the IL – Kris Bryant and Nolan Jones – who could displace Toglia and Toglia isn’t actually playing well enough to force the Rockies to keep playing him.

Bryant is expected to start a rehab assignment Friday and Jones is not supposed to be out long (though back issues can linger).

With Toglia, the power is legit, but so is the swing-and-miss. High power, low on base, a ton of fly balls leading to low BABIP – this is what you get with Toglia. And while he is a switch hitter, he has been awful (unplayable for fantasy) versus right-handed pitching. For his career, he has been better vs. righties than lefties. But in this case, better is still very bad.

All in all, you have a guy who Ottoneu managers should be using as a small-side platoon bat, giving you middling performance, with a good chance to lose playing time very soon. The power is real-enough that he doesn’t hurt to roster, but don’t expect much.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

Lawrence Butler – 39 current auctions

Going with some arbitrary end points, Butler is absolutely crushing since June 30, posting a 233 wRC+ with 7 HR in 45 PA. Now, 45 PA isn’t a ton, but that is still a killer stretch, so it isn’t a surprise that Butler is attracting attention.

Butler, however, has some pretty notable warts, as well. The overall line on the year is just a .299 wOBA and while his xwOBA is .331, his batted ball profile doesn’t actually fully support that .331. If you go to Butler’s PitcherList page, instead of looking at Baseball Savant (or FanGraphs, as we use Baseball Savant’s data) you see a .294 xwOBA. PitcherList includes batted ball direction in their xwOBA calculation and Butler pulls the ball less than most. Of 331 hitters with 150 PA or more, Butler has the 28th highest oppo% and the 50th lowest pull%. His hard hit balls aren’t as valuable as they seem, because hard-hit pulled balls are more valuable than balls hit hard the other way.

On top of that, he has some strikeout concerns (28.6% over his 322 MLB PA, and even higher if you only look at this year). He hasn’t had a strong minor league track record, with wRC+ of 92 and 97 in his two tastes of Triple-A, though he did have a 112 as a 22-year-old in Double-A. That doesn’t scream future star, but it isn’t bad.

The other challenge for Butler is that he has splits that limit his value. He has a .345 wOBA on the road and a .256 wOBA at home. He has a .322 wOBA vs. RHP and a .120 vs. LHP. Looking at those compared on top of each other, his numbers are very bad at home no matter who he faces and on the road vs. LHP, which limits him to a guy you can use against RHP when he isn’t at home.

And while a “reverse” home-road split might seem noisy, given Butler’s approach (fly ball heavy, built for power, but a lot of balls hit the other way that limit power-potential), it isn’t shocking that Oakland is a bad fit for him.

All in all, using a guy 35% of the time, on the road vs. RHP, isn’t the worst use of a roster spot. There is a chance he could pull the ball more and help his number play up (though his rolling pull rate is actually down recently). He could get traded and be usable 70% of the time instead of 35%. That makes him an intriguing flyer.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

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Roster Adds

Rece Hinds – Add% Change (7 Days) – 79%

79% is a crazy number. But we covered how and why that happened last week when I urged caution. Was his 0-4 the day before the All-Star Break the beginning of the end? Who knows! But I still expect the end to come sooner rather than later.

Luis L. Ortiz – Add% Change (7 Days) – 56.7%

He was covered last week, as well, in multiple places. But he has continued to look good and he is moving closer to a Don’t Lose than I would have expected. I have picked him up multiple places and wish I had been more aggressive about adding him.

Angel Martinez – Add% Change (7 Days) – 49.8%

Again, check out last week’s column. Not a lot new to report when no one has played in multiple days.

Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Brent Rooker – (14.1 P/G)

Rooker was good last year and it felt like people were still sorta dubious. Well, he is up to 6.93 P/G this year. Hope you weren’t one of the dubious ones.

Blake Snell – (8.1 P/IP)

Snell is tied for first over this stretch (with Nick Pivetta of all people). After his weird off-season, late start, poor performance, IL-stint, etc., he rejoined the rotation July 9 and has made two starts through 12 innings, striking out 11, walking 3, and allowing no runs on two hits. His last start also saw his GB% start to surge up. We’ll see if this continues, but Snell is an ace and we shouldn’t forget that.